PokerStars
  Wednesday, April 16th, 2008

Hand Analysis
Permalink Posted 5:44 pm in Categories: Poker

I'm going to start posting hands here, trying to analyze them and think through my mistakes so I don't make them again.

Villain in the hand is 24/14/2.45 over 1600 hands. Mostly datamined, earlier him and I had a hand where I checked top pair behind on the turn after cbetting the flop, and he rivered a gutshot. He made a PSB on the river with it. Other than that neither of us have been playing in big pots.

Seat 3: Vovanwch ($28.65)
Seat 6: TheSalche ($25.45)

TheSalche posts the small blind of $0.10
justindejong posts the big blind of $0.25
The button is in seat #5
* HOLE CARDS *
Dealt to TheSalche Jack of SpadesKing of Diamonds
apskies18 folds
Vovanwch has 15 seconds left to act
Vovanwch raises to $1
imtav folds
BS20 folds
TheSalche calls $0.90
justindejong folds
* FLOP * Six of DiamondsQueen of ClubsTen of Spades
TheSalche checks
Vovanwch bets $2
TheSalche raises to $10
Vovanwch raises to $27.65, and is all in
TheSalche calls $14.45, and is all in

The preflop call is questionable, raise or fold would have been better. I called planning on c/ring dry flops because he had a cbet % of nearly 100. However 3betting bloats the pot when I'm OOP and there's not much reason to suggest he'll fold a better hand.

My flop check/raise may have been too large, but I was attempting to maximize my FE. I was willing to get it all-in here, which was my downfall in the hand.

There is a big difference between this straight draw, and other hands where shoving with a big draw is a good move. The problem here is that his calling / shoving range is probably 66, TT, QQ -AA, AQ and AK. Against the sets I have 8 outs, but he has a full house redraw. KK and AA are bad because they eliminate the king or jack being outs, as well as take away straight draw outs (for AA). AQ and AK are the hands I have the best chance against. With AK my FE goes up because it is tough for him to make a call with no pair, weak draw with no read on me. AQ is bad news, but I still have 10 outs, although again he has redraws. JJ is similar to AQ.

So what appears to be an 11 out draw, I really have closer to 7 or 8 outs against his range and this means I'm relying heavily on FE. The pot is also small, and I shouldn't go nuts over 20 BBs. Better line would have been c/c the flop, b/f turn or c/f turn, fire at river. Fold preflop better than those.

In the end he somehow called with AK and I blanked. I suppose if I had known his cards were AK I played the flop spectacular and he made a pretty bad play.

This one the villain was 33/23/3.2 over 200. Him and I haven't tangled but I'd say I have an aggressive image here.

Seat 3: Mungo36 ($43.75)
Seat 4: TheSalche ($35.10)

legalizenow posts the small blind of $0.10
Mungo36 posts the big blind of $0.25
The button is in seat #1
* HOLE CARDS *
Dealt to TheSalche King of SpadesAce of Diamonds
TheSalche raises to $1
Mungo36 calls $0.75
* FLOP * Ace of SpadesQueen of SpadesFour of Spades
Mungo36 checks
TheSalche bets $1.75
Mungo36 raises to $7.75
TheSalche raises to $22
Mungo36 raises to $42.75, and is all in
TheSalche calls $12.10, and is all in

Preflop is standard, obv.

I was pretty excited about this flop, and maybe I wasn't thinking much. It looks like a great flop for me, and I should be willing to get it all-in. The only hands that are any trouble are AA/QQ/44. Aces are unlikely, as are queens because he didn't 3bet preflop and he has a high aggression factor. AQ and A4 I've got plenty of outs against, and he could be doing this with AJs or ATs. Maybe JJ with the jack of spades. I certainly don't think folding the flop is an option, but since we were deeper I could've called his check raise and seen the turn.

Maybe I'm results oriented on this one, but I was upset when he showed QQ, turned a boat and then I rivered my nut flush. I'm not trying to find a fold here by any means, but was this the best way to get the money in?

Finally an AA hand. At this point I have an aggressive image, but I have been showing down a lot of TPTK hands, and I was able to build my stack by winning with a OESD flush draw vs. a made straight and bottom set. Villain is 26/8 over 60 hands.

Seat 1: Beatrice61 ($46.35)
Seat 4: TheSalche ($84.45)
whGoldenOne posts the small blind of $0.10
Beatrice61 posts the big blind of $0.25
The button is in seat #5
* HOLE CARDS *
Dealt to TheSalche Ace of ClubsAce of Hearts

TheSalche raises to $0.85
Beatrice61 calls $0.60
* FLOP * Seven of DiamondsTwo of HeartsNine of Clubs
Beatrice61 checks
TheSalche bets $1.75
Beatrice61 raises to $3.50
TheSalche calls $1.75
* TURN * Seven of DiamondsTwo of HeartsNine of Clubs Queen of Hearts
Beatrice61 bets $5
TheSalche calls $5
* RIVER * Seven of DiamondsTwo of HeartsNine of ClubsQueen of Hearts Six of Hearts
Beatrice61 bets $12
TheSalche calls $12

I think I played the hand fine till the river. On the flop the min-raise can mean a lot of things, plenty of overpairs out there. The turn didn't change much except that QQ is now beating mean. However the river bet is significantly larger than previous streets, and this players stats aren't maniacal so I should've expected her to show up with two pair or better. I made snap decisions on the turn and river without thinking through the hand and what she could possibly have. As expected by the tone of the post, she showed up with 99.

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Comment from: View ProfileMrDarling
Permalink 04/17/08@08:29
hand 1 just fold PF. KJo plays really bad against an EP opener.
Your big c/r on this semi dryish flop does look weak especially to donks, and I guess he decided to take his gut+two over and hope to have some FE mixed in.

Hand 2 : TPTK+NFD you need to get it in on this flop all day long.

Hand 3 : min raise on dry board are weird. could easily be TP kind of a hand. But once she fires an over card turn + big bet the river you should know you are dead. You can consider raising the flop, to protect your stack, but then you lose tons of value from TP/over pairs hands.
TBH, I can't say I fold this too easily. Its hard to fold an over pair when the only real hand that beats you are sets or weird two pairs (79/Q9 kind of hands)

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 TheSalche
Joined: 20 Mar 2005
Location: calling down
PokerStars Name: Sonny617
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