23 outs on flop? possible?

[rtejada]

My hand 5 7 went something like this on flop (big blind special): 2 4 6 . I figured the guy has AK or AQ from his betting pattern (which he had AK) that put all in on the crap flop. I would have 9 clubs + 4 8s and 3s and 3 5s and 7s would technically give me 9+8+6 = 23 outs? 23x4 means i have a 92% chance of winning the pot on draw? and his AK only had an 8% chance?

[HalfSugar]

Don't forget that 8c and 3c have been double-counted in the '3x5s and 4x3s' alongside the '9 clubs'

[HalfSugar]

Check this page for full examples by the way:

http://www.texasholdem-poker.com/pot_od ... ulator.php

[Muck]

This ones also very handy to get an idea of your situation, it calculates your chance at 70%.

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_odds/texas_holdem/

[suitedaces84]

23x4 means i have a 92% chance of winning the pot

No, the 2-4 rule is simply an approximation. It's more accurate with fewer outs, with 23 it's not even close.

[Dave B]

when you get big numbers you need to take the inverse of the proportion and multiply, or

assume 20 outs, or 40% flop and turn each, (1-.4)*2 is .36 chance of missing both turn and river so 64% chance of hitting one.

[Jauron]

I had a hand once in a home game tourney, down to heads up and I had pocket 3's and raised, he was short stacked and called for about 1/3 of his chips.

Flop came 8 8 9

Hoping he has missed the flop I bet over half his stack and he quickly reraised me all in, I had to call now and I even though he was just on a draw. He held 10 J

So he was open ended with the flush draw, 2 overcards and what is worse he could also win (if I did not improve) if the board paired again.

9 for the flush (I held no club) 6 for his straight, 6 for his overcards and 3 for the board pairing just on the flop for 24 outs.

Then the board brought a K non club giving him an additional 3 outs. I had 27 cards I had to dodge...and I did.

[suitedaces84]

[nitpicking]
3 is not an out for him so there's one card less
[/nitpicking]

[traz]

9 clubs + 3 eights + 3 threes + 3 fives + 3 sevens

21 outs

Thought, if I was calculating this on the spot, I'd get rid of the outs that make you a pair...in case he has a pocket pair.