26$ mtt on FTP, what do we put villian on

[ninetensuited]

Full Tilt Poker Game #5524692440: $11,500 Guarantee (41408619), Table 4 - 40/80 - No Limit Hold'em - 12:47:17 ET - 2008/03/06
Seat 1: s04fan (4,500)
Seat 3: lotus1972 (8,605)
Seat 4: notre_damer (6,200)
Seat 5: squid299 (3,960)
Seat 6: craige1975 (5,145)
Seat 7: KASHKING07 (2,205)
Seat 8: Strichacht (11,620)
Seat 9: qualiax (1,835)
KASHKING07 posts the small blind of 40
Strichacht posts the big blind of 80
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to squid299 [8c As]
qualiax folds
s04fan has 15 seconds left to act
Strichacht: so4, war super euer torwart
s04fan is sitting out
s04fan has timed out
s04fan folds
lotus1972 folds
notre_damer folds
squid299 has 15 seconds left to act
squid299 raises to 240
craige1975 is sitting out
craige1975 folds
KASHKING07 folds
Strichacht calls 160
*** FLOP *** [Qh 9s 4c]
Strichacht checks
squid299 bets 300
Strichacht calls 300
*** TURN *** [Qh 9s 4c] [Qc]
Strichacht has 15 seconds left to act
Strichacht checks
squid299 checks
*** RIVER *** [Qh 9s 4c Qc] [7s]
Strichacht bets 11,080, and is all in
squid299 has 15 seconds left to act
squid299 has requested TIME
what do we put them on

results to come later

[Felting]

Fold preflop. Risking 240 to win 120 is bad odds with Axo.

Wait till the antes kick in.

[gumbie]

Whatever villain has even if his cards are face up this play is dumb.

[ninetensuited]

on the surface, yes this play is dumb. but i had 3 hours worth of reads on this player. Was at the same table in 2 different tourneys for around an hour and a half in each. and they had shown down several bluffs taking this same line.

[Kemics]

His bluff might be the best hand though. Would be madness to bet 11,000 into a 1000 pot with a stone cold bluff. Surely someone at these stakes would only make this move with some sort of hand. But seeing as you posted it he's probably got Ax but x is smaller

[Felting]

these stakes

You mean LOL Donkament stakes?

[ninetensuited]

lol gidaments

[crack]

on the surface, yes this play is dumb. but i had 3 hours worth of reads on this player. Was at the same table in 2 different tourneys for around an hour and a half in each. and they had shown down several bluffs taking this same line.

Well in this case you should know what to do. On the surface of the hand I'm just going to muck it without any information on the player.

And felting, tbh nothing wrong with raising Axo in the CO at this level, especially if you have tight players in the blinds. You can't just be raising your good hands at these blinds or you will never get called by observant players, mix it up.

[ninetensuited]

Full Tilt Poker Game #5524692440: $11,500 Guarantee (41408619), Table 4 - 40/80 - No Limit Hold'em - 12:47:17 ET - 2008/03/06
Seat 1: s04fan (4,500)
Seat 3: lotus1972 (8,605)
Seat 4: notre_damer (6,200)
Seat 5: squid299 (3,960)
Seat 6: craige1975 (5,145)
Seat 7: KASHKING07 (2,205)
Seat 8: Strichacht (11,620)
Seat 9: qualiax (1,835)
KASHKING07 posts the small blind of 40
Strichacht posts the big blind of 80
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to squid299 [8c As]
qualiax folds
s04fan has 15 seconds left to act
Strichacht: so4, war super euer torwart
s04fan is sitting out
s04fan has timed out
s04fan folds
lotus1972 folds
notre_damer folds
squid299 has 15 seconds left to act
squid299 raises to 240
craige1975 is sitting out
craige1975 folds
KASHKING07 folds
Strichacht calls 160
*** FLOP *** [Qh 9s 4c]
Strichacht checks
squid299 bets 300
Strichacht calls 300
*** TURN *** [Qh 9s 4c] [Qc]
Strichacht has 15 seconds left to act
Strichacht checks
squid299 checks
*** RIVER *** [Qh 9s 4c Qc] [7s]
Strichacht bets 11,080, and is all in
squid299 has 15 seconds left to act
squid299 has requested TIME
CADILLACjr sits down
CADILLACjr adds 4,450
squid299 calls 3,420, and is all in
Uncalled bet of 7,660 returned to Strichacht
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Strichacht shows [Th Jc] a pair of Queens
squid299 shows [8c As] a pair of Queens
squid299 wins the pot (7,960) with a pair of Queens
craige1975 has returned
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 7,960 | Rake 0
Board: [Qh 9s 4c Qc 7s]
Seat 1: s04fan didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: lotus1972 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: notre_damer didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: squid299 showed [8c As] and won (7,960) with a pair of Queens
Seat 6: craige1975 (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: KASHKING07 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 8: Strichacht (big blind) showed [Th Jc] and lost with a pair of Queens
Seat 9: qualiax didn't bet (folded)

[Kemics]

man i need to start playing higher stakes, nice call sir

[ninetensuited]

ty

[MrDarling]

First nothing wrong with opening lots of hands from the CO. The blinds are now big enough to be worth fighting for.

2nd, villain doesn't bet 11k into a 1000 pot. Gid only has 3500 behind.
3rd, without reads this is often Air or nuts.
Nuts = 99, 77 or even any Q (at least in villain eyes)
Air is probably a missed draw (ie JT) or AK/KJ kind of hands but could also be A9/A4 or 22-88.

And here is the problem, we do not beat enough of villain air to make this call correct. And given the odds you need to be correct 75% of the times, which is a lot!

Of course, in vacuum this is an insta fold without even thinking about it.
However one of the most important things in poker is to listen to your reads/guts.

[crack]

This isn't really advanced theory is it? Gid said himself he has x amount of hours/reads on him. Gid knew what the right move was from his reads. It just seems like a shameless brag to me.

[kompis]

thinly vieled brag imo

[supafrey]

Yes but he won't show the other 75% of the time that this is wrong.