$4.5KGRT last 4 , can I fold AQs?

[MrDarling]

Managed to make my way to the last 4 on FT (out of 600)

Last 4, we're all pretty much even at chips. And I guess we have a normal Daynamic : about 50% of the pots go to whom ever open PF and 30% go to whom ever decided to reraise push AI.

I'm doing a bit of stealing, but not much more then the rest.
When I looked down at AQs I made the standard raise and decided to call a push. But once villain made a normal 3bet (first time since we're down to 4 anyone does it) I really want to fold.
I figured calling and c/f UI is too weak.


Full Tilt Poker Game #4231558866: $4,500 KO Guarantee (31533773), Table 59 - 5000/10000 Ante 1000 - No Limit Hold'em - 19:42:50 ET - 2007/11/19
Seat 3: OneThirsty1 (186,060)
Seat 4: Ianrmcarthur (331,819)
Seat 6: Ace Skillz (405,647)
Seat 9: hero (276,474)
OneThirsty1 antes 1,000
Ianrmcarthur antes 1,000
Ace Skillz antes 1,000
hero antes 1,000
Ianrmcarthur posts the small blind of 5,000
Ace Skillz posts the big blind of 10,000
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hero [Ad Qd]
hero raises to 25,000
OneThirsty1 raises to 70,000
Ianrmcarthur folds
Ace Skillz folds
hero has 15 seconds left to act
hero?

Advise?

[Felix]

You can afford to fold, and my biggest concern is that villain, with his shorter stack, made a normal 3bet of almost half his stack rather than an open shove. Sounds like he's trying to invite you into the pot. Especially since his M is still over 10 (I don't remember how to calculate effective M's at 4 handed tables)

If he's done this often, I come over the top, if this is the first time (which I'm assuming it is) I probably fold. Tough spot.

[HalfSugar]

Probably shove every time unless you have a certain read. Only AA, KK, QQ and AK worry you, everything else is just an annoyance

[crack]

Meh, You want to risk crippling yourself on a coinflip/being destroyed or with the slight chance he may have AJ right now?

You can afford the fold without needing to get desperate and you seem to have at least a bit of play left. He probably is calling seeing as he just stuck half his stack in, so why put yourself in that position when the chips are sort of even?

I don't know if you overvalue AQ or I undervalue it, but I would be looking for another opportunity to put my chips in.

[jimmer]

last 4 on FT (out of 600)

nice one btw MrD

[MrDarling]

I don't know if you overvalue AQ or I undervalue it...

Would you play AK differently? Because in my mind 4 players AQ=AK.

Would you fold J's in this spot? Because I did fold J's in the start of the final table after opening UTG+1 to a single raise from the BTN.

I was going to say that I'll gladly take a race at this point, however, looking at the stack/blinds ratio, I maybe starting to think the folding AK here might not be a bad move.
I think the problem was I was real short the last hour of the game and was in the Short stack frame of mind (ie M was max 5 most of the time) since I think by I only got to a decent stack 4 handed.
Of course, had he opened the pot first I will gladly push, and I think I'll even faster call a push from him (and expect to be infront most of the time)

baa....

[crack]

Quite a bit of my play comes down to instinct and being able to read the situation and the players. What stood out to me is that you said people have been coming over the top with pushes, but this time it was a 3x rr. That doesn't sit too well with me.

You know the guy is (well should be) calling when he commits 1/2 his stack and with the stacks the way they are, I'm not ready to flip/be dominated/crushed for my tournament, when I can lay it down and continue to steal pots.

I can only generalise but in this spot I think they are more likely to have their hand made when they make this play. I know I am more likely to push with AQ/AK/AJ than make a 3x rr for 1/2 my stack, so I would still fold AK, but Jacks is more difficult.

I would probably shed a tear and call it with JJ and pray he has 77-88-99-TT, but I don't really know.