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88's

Analysis of specific hands and general game theory
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9 posts • Page 1 of 1

88's

Postby khaosanroad » Thu Mar 27, 2008 2:19 am GMT

PokerStars Game #16280633734: Holdem No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2008/03/27 - 01:19:10 (ET)
Table Praxedis II 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: voltrn3 ($2.20 in chips)
Seat 2: Thuey11 ($14.10 in chips)
Seat 3: JMS1971 ($5.90 in chips)
Seat 4: rumpy1 ($10.45 in chips)
Seat 5: westend94 ($9.80 in chips)
Seat 6: 33BEERS ($9.95 in chips)
Seat 7: allstar3004 ($9.45 in chips)
Seat 8: vanbout ($10.15 in chips)
Seat 9: Makawao ($10 in chips)
vanbout: posts small blind $0.05
Makawao: posts big blind $0.10
voltrn3: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to westend94 [8d 8c]
voltrn3: checks
Thuey11: raises $0.30 to $0.40
JMS1971: folds
rumpy1: folds
westend94: calls $0.40
33BEERS: calls $0.40
allstar3004: folds
vanbout: folds
Makawao: folds
voltrn3: folds
*** FLOP *** [5d 7c 6d]
Thuey11: bets $0.70
westend94: ?
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Postby xDiamond_CutteRx » Thu Mar 27, 2008 3:45 am GMT

Raise to $2.50. If he pushes an overpair, we have pretty decent equity to beat him, and he probably folds most other hands we would prefer he not get a cheap card against. If we just call and happen to hit, however, we're unlikely to get paid off.

I don't want to call and have someone else come in behind us, and I don't really hate it a ton if he comes over the top, because we probably have at least 10 outs plus dead money in the pot, and overpairs are only a small part of his range (personally I think his flop bet is rather weak for an overpair, and if he's that shy, he might even decide to fold a hand like Jacks or Tens, which is a victory for us).

If he calls, we can elect to take a free card on the turn or show the hand down cheaply (because if he calls, I'm pretty sure we're behind).

Again, I normally prefer to perhaps keep the pot a little smaller here, but the last thing I want is for someone to come in behind us, or to have a scare card come on the turn and for him to bet into us again. Here, I much prefer raising, because we'll win the pot a lot, and we're not in horrible shape against even his strong holdings.
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Postby Felting » Thu Mar 27, 2008 1:04 pm GMT

He made a standard raise for any hand in this range: AA-1010, AK-A10, KQ

Then he made a standard cbet for the same range. This should be a very scary board for him. I think DC raise suggestion is spot on. Most of the time we'll take down the pot right then. If not we still have 10 outs to hit IF we are behind.
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Postby miaowmiaowchowface » Thu Mar 27, 2008 3:13 pm GMT

xDiamond_CutteRx wrote:Raise to $2.50. If he pushes an overpair, we have pretty decent equity to beat him, and he probably folds most other hands we would prefer he not get a cheap card against. If we just call and happen to hit, however, we're unlikely to get paid off.

I don't want to call and have someone else come in behind us, and I don't really hate it a ton if he comes over the top, because we probably have at least 10 outs plus dead money in the pot, and overpairs are only a small part of his range (personally I think his flop bet is rather weak for an overpair, and if he's that shy, he might even decide to fold a hand like Jacks or Tens, which is a victory for us).

If he calls, we can elect to take a free card on the turn or show the hand down cheaply (because if he calls, I'm pretty sure we're behind).

Again, I normally prefer to perhaps keep the pot a little smaller here, but the last thing I want is for someone to come in behind us, or to have a scare card come on the turn and for him to bet into us again. Here, I much prefer raising, because we'll win the pot a lot, and we're not in horrible shape against even his strong holdings.

Yeah what he said. Except the guy never really calls does he(unless hes spastic)? It's push or fold...
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Postby Ensano » Thu Mar 27, 2008 3:32 pm GMT

no way is this push or fold... reraise pot on flop and re eval on turn...
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Postby xDiamond_CutteRx » Thu Mar 27, 2008 3:36 pm GMT

I think he means that it becomes push or fold for our opponent if we raise to $2.50, and that's probably accurate. Calling would be a mistake for our opponent because he is out of position.

Again, it's not really an issue that all hands we beat fold, because we're happy to take the pot rather than let a scare card come off. Raising is strictly speaking to protect our hand, but because of our equity in the pot, we still get to make a crying call if he pushes. As long as we're also going to raise here with a set or a straight a fair amount of the time (or a hand like [Ad Kd] if our opponent has something like two Jacks), which I would also recommend, this type of play has a lot of fold equity and is quite profitable, especially when our opponent folds 99+ (which might not be often at these stakes, but it's still a valid concern).
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Postby khaosanroad » Fri Mar 28, 2008 2:01 am GMT

*** FLOP *** [5d 7c 6d]
Thuey11: bets $0.70
westend94: raises $8.70 to $9.40 and is all-in
33BEERS: calls $9.40
Thuey11: folds
*** TURN *** [5d 7c 6d] [As]
*** RIVER *** [5d 7c 6d As] [9c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
westend94: shows [8d 8c] (a straight, Five to Nine)
33BEERS: shows [6h 5h] (two pair, Sixes and Fives)
westend94 collected $19.95 from pot



With a 3rd person in the pot with two diamonds on the board I decided to just push. I knew I would get called or pushed into if I just raised to about $2.50.

The guy with 2 pair was pissed and bashed me for the play.
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Postby Felting » Fri Mar 28, 2008 2:28 am GMT

khaosanroad wrote:The guy with 2 pair was pissed and bashed me for the play.


Guess he had just drinked all 33 beers. I don't know if I would of shoved because a decent reraise shows just as much strength or even a little more while risking less. Other than that your play was fine.
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Postby xDiamond_CutteRx » Fri Mar 28, 2008 2:51 am GMT

We actually have even better equity against 65 than we do against TT+, but there is the slight risk that we draw down to 2 outs on the turn. On the turn though, we have three 7's, three Aces, two 8's, four 9's, and four 4's for 16 outs and still like 1/3 equity in the pot.
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