A Few Simple Question

[REDMAN]

I am a long time player but have not really communicated with other to develop my strategy and have read only a few books but am clearly a net winner.

1) Pre-flop have you ever folded KK pre flop. Why? I have done this several time and it have always been the wrong play. Discuss your thoughts.

2) QQ Pre-flop. With a middle size stack say 30 blinds. In early to middle position opening with a 3 blind raise and a later position all in of 12 blinds and an even later position all in move over the top for your remaining stack. What do you do? I have both folded and called in this situation and believe a call is correct but am not sure.

3) Have you ever had a dry spell that lasted more than 6 months? For almost 3 years I was a clear winner on line not a lot but I did turn $30 in to $17,000 and as importantly I won that amount fairly consistently in small tournaments. Over the last 9 months I have lost 3K of this 17K in the same consistent manor. I do not believe I have changed my game. My theory is that with the down turn in the economy the bad consistent players have left the game and that I am now the donkey at the table. Have any of the other winning played experienced the same thing.

Thanks

[xDiamond_CutteRx]

Interesting questions.

1) Pre-flop have you ever folded KK pre flop. Why? I have done this several time and it have always been the wrong play. Discuss your thoughts.

I have done so exactly once and I was right. I highly considered it another time but didn't fold, and I would have been right. Both of these cases were pretty clear-cut. Other than that it's pretty much a no-brainer to go for it with Kings. I've run into Aces plenty of times without regret because the opponent's range was decently wide (not that it has to be that wide to want to get all-in with KK).

2) QQ Pre-flop. With a middle size stack say 30 blinds. In early to middle position opening with a 3 blind raise and a later position all in of 12 blinds and an even later position all in move over the top for your remaining stack. What do you do? I have both folded and called in this situation and believe a call is correct but am not sure.

QQ vs. a raise, reraise, and re-reraise? I guess it kinda depends, but in general this is probably a fold. I can see situations where you'd call, but all things being equal, I don't anticipate being good all that often unless players are loose and/or stacks are rather short.

3) Have you ever had a dry spell that lasted more than 6 months?

It happens, more frequently than people believe. It's not uncommon for even good players to run about even for like 50,000 hands. For tournament players, running "bad" for 6-12 months or more is not uncommon just because of sample size.

I do not believe I have changed my game.

That may be a problem. The game is constantly evolving and you have to alter your game to keep up. It's what evolutionary biologists call the "Red Queen" (derived from Through the Looking Glass): you have to run faster and faster just to stay in the same place.

My theory is that with the down turn in the economy the bad consistent players have left the game and that I am now the donkey at the table.

A definite possibility. The games have gotten tougher in the last year, no question.

[REDMAN]

Thanks for the response to my questions.

On folding KK: I do not think I am going to fold them any more maybe because I am just not that good. I try to trust my reads but to put someone on AA only and make that fold you have to be very good or be playing scared.

On the QQ question: I have found that the 2nd all in player usually has AK. Clearly his range has to be very good maybe AK, AA, KK. But what I am starting to believe is that I need to discount the probability that he has AA of KK because the 2nd all in some ways shows some weakness with him trying to get heads up vs. the short stack. I believe the actual situation that I ran into I had a little deeper stack than 30 blinds.

On my game: I actual have tried to change my game. Sometimes I play with the only real intent to try new strategies not that concerned about winning. More aggressive, small ball, more stealing, using a big stack to push people around etc. I have had some success with other types of play especially at lower limits. What I mean by stating I have not changed my game is I do not think I am playing worse. To be honest when I was winning consistently and making it through large fields of players on a consistent basis, I use to ask myself if I was really this good.

I am getting so frustrated I played again last night. A $30 re-buy $1500 chip game. Last night I tried to make it through the re-buy period with only one re-buy and double up to maintain an average stack. I was successful ending the period with about $4,200 and I did not take two many risks. I have found that I can usually maintain an average stake with one re-buy because many players are trying to build a big stack during period. I then continue to do well and built a stack up around 9,000 around twice the average. I then made an unusually play for me calling an all in with an under pair where I put my opponent on over cards with the nut flush draw. I usual don’t make this call as the best I can be is 50/50. I figure that I was not going to play scared and that if I was right on my read and won the race, I would have a chip advantage that was worth the risk. I was right and lost the race with my stack now at about 4000 I am under the average stack. A couple of rotation later I was in the exact reverse situation with 2 over’s and the nut flush draw and pushed all in hoping to take down the pot with what looked like a 50/50 situation but with good bet equity. My opponent could have folded but called with the top pair and won the race.

This game was an exact replay of the past 6 mounts over and over every night.

Please discuss. Am I playing wrong, is their some way to get my money in with a better chance of success, or do you just have to win these races. Should I have just avoided the 50/50 situation and continued to try and chip up slowly and just leaving money in the pot when I clearly have pot odd with dead money already bet. If you are a winner please discuss.

Thanks

[crack]

1) I think I have folded KK once in a tournament and some times in a cash game. Basically, online people overplay JJ/QQ/AK so much that it's almost always never right to just fold PF. You're read needs to be pretty damn solid, and in low stakes MTT's you probably just haven't played another with the player to make a comfortable laydown. If you run into AA then so be it IMO.

2) QQ it really depends, such as everything with poker. What sort of hands have you seen the guy showdown, has he played a hand in an hour? What is his image of you? Does he really care? Is this a $1 buyin or a $100 buyin? How much of his stack is he risking?

I am probably more likely to call when I have about 30bbs than I am with about 60bbs.

3) Yes. It happens just got to suck it up, play good and hope it turns around sooner rather than later.
I don't necessarily agree that the games have got tougher in the last year though. What I would say though is that when you are running bad, you will usually play bad. Everybody thinks that when they are losing a significant amount of their bankroll they feel fine and are not making mistakes. In truth, only a small percentage of the players in that spot will actually not be making mistakes. My advice would be to take a break, go over old hands and see how you have played. Post hands here and see what others think.

With regards to the rebuy, maybe you are putting yourself at a disadvantage. I have had this discussion with a friend of mine who would prefer to buyin once and try and ride it out because of the big prizepool. Like you, I think he is basically cutting of one of his arms and is still trying to swim. The rebuy period is there for a reason. You can make calls that you might decide to fold if your tournament life is at stake, gamble on coin flips, flush draws, etc etc. I wouldn't be looking to get through it with just an average stack. I am looking more at building a big stack for the rest of the tournament.

If I may be so bold, the trend of your first posts sounds to me that you may be playing a little scared. Folding KK, Folding QQ, only rebuying once, only gambling when you absolutely have to, putting your stack in begrudgingly in 50/50 spots.

You seem to be looking to make the hero folds. That isn't what it's all about. In tournies you are going to have to gamble in spots, flip, change gears, turn or river flushes etc. Think more about maximising value with your hands. I hope it turns around for you soon!

[REDMAN]

Regarding my playing scared you may be right. My strategy has always been that am not willing to gamble simply for the sake of gambling. I do not know if this means I am playing scared or not. I have always been able to get my money in pretty good but at a cost of loosing blinds and sometimes leaving money in the pot. I don’t mind getting in 50/50 situations if I am the one putting the pressure on my opponent (the one making the all in bet assuming I have equity in my opponent possibly folding. I do not like making 50/50 calls. I have always tried to get in situations that I can dominate and avoid situation that can be dominated. This may seem obvious but I see a lot of played that don’t understand this simple concept.

When I have hands that are 2nd best I try to control the put and/or induce bluffs and then usually just call. I have wondered if calling an opponent who you put on a bluff is the right move of if I should value bet back at them. Value betting a bluff has seemed to me not to have a good pay off.

Please comment on my approach above. Do you value bet what seems like a bluff on the river?

It was suggested that I post some hands I have played.

Again last night I was in a 9 handed game this was the re-buy part of the tourney so play is very loose. The table as whole had about the same deep stack sizes. An early position player limped, a middle position player 3 blind bet it, I made it 10 blinds with AK in 2nd to last, and the early limper pushed all-in and the 3 blind better called.

My thoughts are:
I have AK and am clearly up against one of the following (2 under pairs) or (an under pair + AK or maybe me Ax) or (an under pair + AA of KK). I called this hand mostly because it was in the re-buy part of the game which substantial increased the chances I was up against 2 under pairs or even and under pair and AX.

I would have likely folded this same hand if I were in the regular part of the tournament. As I had only invested 3 blinds and the early limper with the all in move shows such strength that it is hard for him to do this with less than AA or KK.

Does this suggest I am playing scared in your opinion? This seems a reasonable lay down to me but maybe this is an example of scared money.

Thanks Again

[REDMAN]

Slight corection to my last post i had invest 9 blinds not 3.

[crack]

If your hand is super strong you would value raise what you think may be a bluff, in case he doesn't have the bluff and makes a bad call or something. If you have a weak hand why would you bother? If he is bluffing he folds and if he isn't he calls and you lose.

With regards to the hand, you need to give more detail IMO. How many chips does each player have exactly, what are the blinds, what are your reads on the players involved in the pot? A good thing to do is to either use your hand histories. Make sure they are being saved to your hard drive and then paste them into a hand converter (Something like http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Ha ... rter-B.php) or use www.pokerhand.org

With all that said, good luck ever getting me to fold AK in the rebuy period.

[REDMAN]

All stacks are about the same as it is early in the re-buy period. Stack sizes are around 40 blinds. I had to make a call of around 1600 to potential win $4,800 about 33% of the final pot. It is hard to have good reads with on line players. I do not think many can do this very well. I have always believed that betting patterns are the key anyway. Clearly some players are simply bad and will over bet AQ or something like that but I did not have a read like this and had not played with my opponent before. I did not have any indication that the early limper liked to slow play AA or KK as is clearly a possibility. My analysis in live play is usually basic and somewhat based on instinct. My instinct is backed up my math and a lot of play though and is usually close to being right.

My thought at the time was that I had several possibilities. My AK was up against:
1) 2 under pairs. In this case I have slightly under 40% chance of winning.
2) Ax and an under pair around a 35% change of winning.
3) The limper slow played his monster hand and I am up against AA or KK and an under pair this is what I am worried about. I have around 15% change of winning.

Clearly other possibilities exist and my math is not exact but I am not smart enough to calculate all the possibilities and think that the value of doing so is marginal.

I have to get 33% pay back on my call. This is why I called in the re-buy stage but would have folded in the regular part of the tournament. In my opinion at the time it all was dependant on the early limper. Did he slow play a monster?

After running the # in excel and a poker calculator I believe I assessed the math correctly with a call in the re-buy period and a fold in the regular stage. But it is close in both cases as is most difficult decisions.

The question is not the numbers or my read although I welcome comments of those aspects. The question is what risks should one take in tournament poker.

Simply do I look to take chances with marginal bets/plays or do I avoid them. I have always avoided them for the most part and if I do make marginal plays I want to be the one making the bets not calling.

Thanks

[Northern Hillbilly]

Interesting questions.

1) Pre-flop have you ever folded KK pre flop. Why? I have done this several time and it have always been the wrong play. Discuss your thoughts.

I have done so exactly once and I was right. I highly considered it another time but didn't fold, and I would have been right. Both of these cases were pretty clear-cut. Other than that it's pretty much a no-brainer to go for it with Kings. I've run into Aces plenty of times without regret because the opponent's range was decently wide (not that it has to be that wide to want to get all-in with KK).

If you won't play KK what hand are you going to play ?

2) QQ Pre-flop. With a middle size stack say 30 blinds. In early to middle position opening with a 3 blind raise and a later position all in of 12 blinds and an even later position all in move over the top for your remaining stack. What do you do? I have both folded and called in this situation and believe a call is correct but am not sure.

Gotta call here you put initial all in on AA or KK at best more then likely a small pocket pair. You then have to figure other guy has 2 over cards AK AQ or KQ . Even if you lose to initial all in you should still get enough chips from over the top to A either make money or B limit your loss

[HalfSugar]

2) QQ Pre-flop. With a middle size stack say 30 blinds. In early to middle position opening with a 3 blind raise and a later position all in of 12 blinds and an even later position all in move over the top for your remaining stack. What do you do? I have both folded and called in this situation and believe a call is correct but am not sure.

Gotta call here you put initial all in on AA or KK at best more then likely a small pocket pair. You then have to figure other guy has 2 over cards AK AQ or KQ . Even if you lose to initial all in you should still get enough chips from over the top to A either make money or B limit your loss

I think you are looking at this quite wrong. You shouldn't be calling here if you think the first AI has you beat just to try and take some chips off the second AI player unless you are sure you have him beat and he has more than twice the stack of all-in player one and even then this is very questionable play. It is sometimes OK to fold a big hand if the action dictates that it's probably right to do so...........

[Northern Hillbilly]

2) QQ Pre-flop. With a middle size stack say 30 blinds. In early to middle position opening with a 3 blind raise and a later position all in of 12 blinds and an even later position all in move over the top for your remaining stack. What do you do? I have both folded and called in this situation and believe a call is correct but am not sure.

Gotta call here you put initial all in on AA or KK at best more then likely a small pocket pair. You then have to figure other guy has 2 over cards AK AQ or KQ . Even if you lose to initial all in you should still get enough chips from over the top to A either make money or B limit your loss

I think you are looking at this quite wrong. You shouldn't be calling here if you think the first AI has you beat just to try and take some chips off the second AI player unless you are sure you have him beat and he has more than twice the stack of all-in player one and even then this is very questionable play. It is sometimes OK to fold a big hand if the action dictates that it's probably right to do so...........

no if you can win more then you lose even if you know with out a doubt 1st all in has you beat But you believe you can beat the 2cnd all in why would you fold You lose 4k to 1st all in but win 6k off second all in you make 2k on the hand. Then you can always suck out or get lucky and beat first all in as well .

If second all in does not have enough chips for you to break even or better with then that is a different story. in this story original better has 30xx bb 1st all in goes for 12x bb that leaves the other guy going in for 18x bb he loses 12 gains 18 18-12 = 6x bb not a bad pot not a great pot

[HalfSugar]

How about the time you are beating AI#2 and he sucks out? There are better spots than this when you are still 30bb deep.

[Northern Hillbilly]

How about the time you are beating AI#2 and he sucks out? There are better spots than this when you are still 30bb deep.

You will lose to suck out or you won't . If you are worried about a suck out Don't ever go all in before the river w/o the stone cold nuts.

Edit it is just my opinion and my style of play . doesn't work for everyone I do all right at the card table usually . R/L I lose to donks online every game

[miaowmiaowchowface]

How about the time you are beating AI#2 and he sucks out? There are better spots than this when you are still 30bb deep.

You will lose to suck out or you won't . If you are worried about a suck out Don't ever go all in before the river w/o the stone cold nuts.

Edit it is just my opinion and my style of play . doesn't work for everyone I do all right at the card table usually . R/L I lose to donks online every game

[HalfSugar]

So there are not better spots than this? Jesus.