A mistake I keep making again and again

[Murka]

It is so frustrating but I can never lay down 99, even when I know I should.

I was playing a tournament starting with 45 players. We were down to about 28.
Blinds- 40/80
7 people at the table

My stack- about 1750

person in 3rd position (who has over 2000 in chips) raises to about 280
1 before the button (with less chips than me) calls
Me- SB with 99- have to think what to do- I decide to test the situation and raise to about 560

3rd position raises all in
1 before the button folds
And stupidly enough I call!

I knew this guy who seems conservative is going to have a higher pair than me and he did- it was JJ. There is no way he would reraise all in with AK, but I still couldn't lay down a hand like 99.

I should have paid attention to the information I got- his reraise of all in- that should have told me I was beat.
There is no way in a situation like that for 99 to be the best hand, right?

Folding in the SB right from the start would probably have been the best play.

[HalfSugar]

It's rarely best if your opponent is a tight player. Factoring in that he could be holding one of five larger pairs or AK/AQ (his most likely range in my opinion), you are way less than 50% to win.

Per pokerstove, 99 vs TT+/AQ+ (suited or otherwise) you are 37% to win so you need to be getting about 2 to 1 to make the call.

As played, when it gets to you, the pot is 280+280+40+80 = 680. You make it 560 (adding 520 to your SB) and the 3rd position player ships. Since he has you covered, he's raising 1,190 to cover you. The pot is now 680+520+1190 = 2,390.

You are calling 1190 into 2390 which is 2.01 to 1 so really you are 'right' to call against that range. That doesn't mean you played it right, it just means that having made the raise to 560, you ended up in a position to make the right call.

Overplaying 99 is a common flaw in peoples' game but at least you have identified it. Folding from the SB with 99 would not be horrible because you are out of position post flop and will have to fold to a continuation bet if you don't flop a set, but it depends on your playing style and propensity to gamble. With a stack of 1,750 I think I'd either ship it or fold, perhaps with a stack of 3,000 or so a call here is not so bad since if you flop your 8 to 1 shot and hit a set, you might be able to stack the raiser if he continues to fire post flop.

[Northern Hillbilly]

Personally I think the biggest mistake you made here was the re raise. One can argue for a fold AI or a simple call here.

Personally I like the Call. 240 more chips if you miss the flop you still can fold having 1430 chips or so not great but definitely enough to find a better place to make a stand. Specially as you are the SB so you won't be seeing the BB for another 8 hands +/-

Once you have re raised him you know have 1/3 your chips in the pot. Pretty much committed now.
That is why I dislike the RR.

Going AI before him only gives you an advantage if he is holding AQ AK and then very little as on poker stars everyone seems to think AK AQ = an AI call. Even less on Pstars are going to fold JJ or 10 10 pre flop. Hell I bet most players on P stars that get JJ or 10 10 You could show them AA or KK then go AI they would still call lol


Folding well I guess I would be a lot better of a poker player if I could fold 99 pre flop for a 3x bb raise. I wouldn't do it myself though it is probably the best move here. Again you have 8 hands +/- before you see a blind again. If you fold you have over 20x the bb left to play with