a question about how to understand pot odds

[goldcoast]

hi. im new-ish to poker (well, new to the "math" part), and keep trying to understand how exactly im supposed to use and make sense of pot odds vs. odds of hitting my outs. i understand how if a person flips a coin 100 times and gives me $2 every time it hits heads and i pay $1 every time it hits tails, i win -- i dont understand how i use this to help me in poker. for instance, after a flop, i dont quite understand how to convert my number of outs and the current pot odds to some kind of similar/able to compare format so i can then figure out what to do. i have been told that this is this single most important math in poker, so i would LOVE some help with this. thank you.

[MasterShake]

hi. im new-ish to poker (well, new to the "math" part), and keep trying to understand how exactly im supposed to use and make sense of pot odds vs. odds of hitting my outs. i understand how if a person flips a coin 100 times and gives me $2 every time it hits heads and i pay $1 every time it hits tails, i win -- i dont understand how i use this to help me in poker. for instance, after a flop, i dont quite understand how to convert my number of outs and the current pot odds to some kind of similar/able to compare format so i can then figure out what to do. i have been told that this is this single most important math in poker, so i would LOVE some help with this. thank you.

Figure out how many outs you think you have and compare it to the number of unseen cards. so with 14 outs, after the flop you would have 14:47 or a 30% shot at hitting the card you need. The part I get confused about is how the numbers change regarding the turn and the river because you've got two chances to hit your card after the flop, but only one after the turn.

[Nut Flush]

It's rather simple once you get the hang of it. Have you checked out the Odds section on this website? Just click the link on the navbar to the left.

But to try and be as simple as I can, you take the number of cards you think will improve your hand. For example, you have 89 of hearts in your hand and the flop comes 6h7h2c. Any heart(there are 9 left), any Ten(3 left, we already counted one with the hearts), and any 5(three left also) will make either a straight, a flush, or a straight flush. We add up all the outs of the cards and come up with 15 outs.

Now take 15 and divide that by the remaining cards in the deck(we include other peoples hole cards as well since we don't know what they are), which is 47 unseen cards (52 card deck minus the 3 flop cards and your 2 hole cards) and we come up wth .32. You have a 32% chance of making your hand, roughly 1 in 3.

Since your odds of improving are 1 in three, there needs to be at least three times the amount of your bet in the pot to make the correct call.

Disclaimer: this is an extreme example

[Leon_the_Pro]

It's rather simple once you get the hang of it. Have you checked out the Odds section on this website? Just click the link on the navbar to the left.

But to try and be as simple as I can, you take the number of cards you think will improve your hand. For example, you have 89 of hearts in your hand and the flop comes 6h7h2c. Any heart(there are 9 left), any Ten(3 left, we already counted one with the hearts), and any 5(three left also) will make either a straight, a flush, or a straight flush. We add up all the outs of the cards and come up with 15 outs.

Now take 15 and divide that by the remaining cards in the deck(we include other peoples hole cards as well since we don't know what they are), which is 47 unseen cards (52 card deck minus the 3 flop cards and your 2 hole cards) and we come up wth .32. You have a 32% chance of making your hand, roughly 1 in 3.

Since your odds of improving are 1 in three, there needs to be at least three times the amount of your bet in the pot to make the correct call.

Disclaimer: this is an extreme example

You are actually twice that since you have two chances to draw that one card.

There is another thread on this.

http://www.texasholdem-poker.com/forum/ ... ybody-know

[JohnnyCache]

Here's the easy way: Figure 2% for every card that could make your hand, times the number of cards left to be delt. So you hold AA pre flop and want to know your odds of catching trips: There are two cards that can help you, so 2 * 2% = 4, and five cards to come, so you have a 20% chance of a three of a kind.

5(2/50)=.20 if you do it the long way.

Rounding to 2 will give you a little innacuracy, but never enough to ruin your call.

Say you flop the AA, and miss the flop to trips - the flop is 2,3,4 rainbow.

Now your outs went up! If a five falls you have a straight to five and need only worry about a player with a 6. So add any five to your outs . . . . four more cards. That's six outs, with two cards left to come

6 outs times two percent a card times two cards to come is 6x2x2 = 24%, so you have a one in four chance of improving your AA now...

Where pot odds come into the equation is when you think you need improvement to win - say you hold, for example, 7,8s. The board comes 6s 9s Ah, and someone opens fairly big, making it a good supposition that they have two overcards or an ace, or maybe a nine or two pair (in other words, they've got some kind of hand, whereas you sit on a lonely draw)
Using your wonderful brain (or a calculator, whatever) you figure out that any 5, and 10, or any spade makes your hand gold against his (worst case) A, 9. Now, you are looking at four of the spades. Since there's 52 cards in the deck, and four suits, 52/4 tells you that there are 13 cards of each color. You therefore have nine outs to a spade flush, and since we haven't seen a five or a ten yet, that means you can add all four fives and all four tens - but we have to subtract the 10 and 5 of spades, since we already included them. You have 15 outs (when making these calls I don't usually include the chances of, say, runner runner 8s - such longshots are harder to figure and won't actually effect the call much).

There's 100 bucks in the pot from pre-flop action, and he's opened for twenty-five more shiny, golden dollars. Twenty-five dollars will keep you in to win 125 in profit on the pot. That's 5 to 1 for you - every dollar you pay in will return 5 if you hit.

Since we're involved in no limit poker, it's best not to look too far ahead until you have a real handle for this kind of stuff - we'll just do one card.
17 outs times 2 percent a card times 1 turn card = 34 percent. You have just slightly better then one third chance of catching your card. Your odds of hitting are 3 to 1 and your payout is 5 to one! He didn't bet high enough to ruin your odds! You call after a perfect moment of contemplation.

That's pot odds vs. outs...I hoped it helped.

edit: A poster informs by PM that I forgot to omit the 10 and 5 of spades when adding in the 10s and 5s, so I basically counted them twice and have only 15 outs.

[nicthestick]

just read Sklansky... texas holdem for advanced players.

[jpeter9]

(when making these calls I don't usually include the chances of, say, runner runner 8s - such longshots are harder to figure and won't actually effect the call much).

Looking for runner runner of 8's is too much of a long shot to figure in, but for example a backdoor flush or straight can turn a marginal call into a sure call or semi bluff raise. For example you hold Ad6d on the button and the flop comes 3s 6c jd, this might be a fold situation but because you possess some extra outs besides an A or 6 it might make it a call situation. Also if you catch a runner runner flush people are less likely to give you credit for it since you didn't flop 4 to your flush. But excellent intro into pot odds.

[Leon_the_Pro]

Looking for runner runner of 8's is too much of a long shot to figure in, but for example a backdoor flush or straight can turn a marginal call into a sure call or semi bluff raise.

Runner runner flush is a 4% chance.

Also if you catch a runner runner flush people are less likely to give you credit for it since you didn't flop 4 to your flush.

Credit? As long as you drag the pot, who cares about credit.

But excellent intro into pot odds.

Agreed. Well said Johnny.

[snoogins47]

Looking for runner runner of 8's is too much of a long shot to figure in, but for example a backdoor flush or straight can turn a marginal call into a sure call or semi bluff raise.

Runner runner flush is a 4% chance.

Also if you catch a runner runner flush people are less likely to give you credit for it since you didn't flop 4 to your flush.

Credit? As long as you drag the pot, who cares about credit.

But excellent intro into pot odds.

Agreed. Well said Johnny.

In general, you'll want to value runner-runner draws on the flop as adding 1 to 2 outs to your hand, just as a rough estimate. Most running straight draws are worse than running flush draws, etc.

Also, the possibility you may have the best hand, or outs that might not be clean, for instance, complicates the calculation. I'm just going to end up re-iterating a lot of this crap, but I'd just like to try to clarify some things.

In general, if you don't hit a flop hard, and are faced with calling/folding/raising, get a rough estimate of how many outs you have, not to forget about backdoor possibilities, but also make sure you don't give full potential to outs that might not win you the pot.

Compare this with the number of unknown cards left in the deck (47 on the flop) and those are roughly the odds you need to profitably call a bet.

So, a quick example might be thus.

You hold Ah 8h, and limp in.

The flop comes 8c Jd 4h

Somebody bets into you.

What could he be betting? Depending on the player, you might have a great chance of having the best hand, and you might have virtually none.

We'll say he's an unknown.

Now, as for outs?

Another 8, or an Ace, are probably going to be good. They *might* not be clean, given our limited information, but you can count that as 5 outs.

Now, add in approximately 1.5 for the backdoor flush... 6.5 outs. We'll knock off .5 just to simplify and sort of half-assedly make up for the times that he's got AJ or J8 or something, where your outs aren't totally clean.

So, 6/47. Roughly 1/8th of the remaining cards.

Btw, quick note: If you will win 1/8th of the time, that's "7 to 1" odds. 1 out of 8, means there are 8 possible outcomes, 7 losers, one winner.

So, you would require 7 to 1 odds to continue with this hand profitably.

Now, since we also have the possibility of holding the best hand anyway, and are guaranteed to win a couple bets if we DO improve and beat a top pair type hand, or something.. somewhere in the neighborhood of 5 to 1 could be justified.

Obviously, the math can get much, much more indepth and precise, but this is definitely close enough for gametime decisions.

Now, also for the record, you don't necessarily want to calculate your odds of hitting on the next TWO cards. Only do this when the betting will end before the turn, or when you're trying to raise for value, which is a whole nother concept entirely.

If you can't count on getting a free card, etc... and are just concerned with calling, you really would be better off calculating your odds of hitting on the next card, and the next card ONLY.

For instance, we all know flush draws come roughly 1/3rd of the time.

This does NOT mean you can necessarily call one bet on the flop if you're getting 2 to 1. You're only about 4 to 1 to hit on your next card. If you're going to face another bet on the turn, figuring your flush draws at 2 to 1 is going to hurt you in the long run.

[Jables]

Pot odds is a bit too abstract for me to use on a regular basis. If my hand has good odds on it vs what I think my opponent(s) have, then I am going to play it regardless of if I have 1 chip in the pot or half of my stack. The only time I find myself looking at the pot for guidance is if I am having trouble making a call. I will take into consideration if I'm already committed to the pot. If I no longer think I have the best hand or can't outdraw him, then I will obviously fold out and cut my losses. But I never find myself getting my hand percentage then making sure the percentage of chips I already have in the pot matches up, it is a waste of time imo.

[snoogins47]

Pot odds is a bit too abstract for me to use on a regular basis. If my hand has good odds on it vs what I think my opponent(s) have, then I am going to play it regardless of if I have 1 chip in the pot or half of my stack. The only time I find myself looking at the pot for guidance is if I am having trouble making a call. I will take into consideration if I'm already committed to the pot. If I no longer think I have the best hand or can't outdraw him, then I will obviously fold out and cut my losses. But I never find myself getting my hand percentage then making sure the percentage of chips I already have in the pot matches up, it is a waste of time imo.

No offense Jab, but the size of the pot is arguably the single most important factor in determining any decision you make while playing poker.

If you want to learn in a more hands on manner, I'll give you a pair of Black Aces in the hole, to my 78s.

You put in $40, I put in $10, and we deal a board of 5 cards. Winner takes the $50, shuffle up, do it again.

I can't deny that your Aces are much better than my "Pablo". I'll run that prop bet as long as you want, though. PM me if you're interested.

I hate to come off as brash here, but putting forth the notion that looking at the amount of money in the pot is "a waste of time," even if it's followed up with "imo," is something that I can't let go uncontested. It's hardly even able to be qualified as an opinion, because it's just plain incorrect.

BTW, the determining factor should be the size of the pot, not how many chips of yours have already gone in it. A subtle, but very important difference.

[Jables]

"A waste of time" was the wrong choice of words. What I mean to say is that when I am playing I am not doing math in my head. I do take into consideration the size of the pot, how much I already have in it, the strength of my own hand, and the status of my opponent - on a draw or a made hand etc, but I am not constantly running numbers and percentages through my head and basing decision solely on that.

[jpeter9]

Runner runner flush is a 4% chance

I understand that a runner runner flush is a long shot, but it's a long shot that should be figured in. You wouldn't call solely on possessing 3 to a flush but that 3 to a flush should be considered as extra outs. I don't have the book with me right now, but Slansky talks about these extra out in the Theory of Poker saying that they can turn a marginal call into a definite call. (i'll post the exact paragraph later)

Credit? As long as you drag the pot, who cares about credit.

I care about credit. It's fairly frequent that the flop will come with 2 suited cards and then when the turn comes of the same suit the betting will shut down, meaning that even if you caught your flush it may be difficult to get paid off. On the other hand if you catch a runner runner flush people will be less likely to give you credit for it thereby paying you off with top pair or bottom two pair, marginal hands that would have folded otherwise. I would like the most amount of money in the pot when i drag it. :D

Agreed. Well said Johnny

hey atleast we agreed on something.