A question about straight odds...

HalfSugar · by **HalfSugar** » Wed Jan 29, 2003 5:39 pm GMT

I read some stuff about odds and was wondering if anyone can confirm or deny the following:

Option 1. Up and Down Straight
Let's say I'm holding K,Q of any suit and the flop shows J,10,5. All I need is A or 9 for the straight, are the odds 5-1?

Option 2. Gutshot Straight
Let's say I'm holding K,Q of any suit and the flop shows J,9,5. I need a 10 to make the straight, are the odds 13-1?

Thankyou

by **Wenona** » Fri Feb 07, 2003 9:53 am GMT

Assuming you can deduce no information about what cards the other players are holding, the probabilities of hitting the straight next card at the turn are:

Q1 17.02% ie 4.88-1
Q2 8.51% ie 10.75-1

HalfSugar · by **HalfSugar** » Sat Feb 08, 2003 8:25 am GMT

Gr8, thanx 4 ur help, maybe I'll b hanging on to a few more gutshots when I'm feeling flush now that the odds are better

Golden Holden · by **Golden Holden** » Sat Feb 08, 2003 3:09 pm GMT

Only hang on to those gutshots if you can expect alot of callers after the flop, AND if you think you're hand will hold up if you do hit it.

Nytecaster · by **Nytecaster** » Sun Feb 09, 2003 8:17 am GMT

Gutshots are good on the flop for as little as 4-1 if you can get in for one small bet and it is a rainbow flop, 6-1 if two suits are showing. This hand is even better if one of your cards is an overcard but now you must fear someone elses straight if you pair it.

If your gutshot comes through you now have enough in implied odds to break even should you expect action on the turn and river from at least one player and that is better than folding these hands. The added benefit of not always folding a gutshot when you have these odds is that you are now in more hands past the flop and do not seem like an easy target to run over. Small plays like these actually save you money so do not over-estimate them.

The number of small bets you can call for on the flop should be about the same in number of opponents you expect to call on the turn with at least one left by the river....so if you expect two to call on the turn and then one on the river, you can go ahead and call two small bets on the flop....knowing if this will happen is hard to do though so don't expect it unless it happens frequently enough to justify it.