AKo vs Pocketpair in headsup pre-flop--%'ages

[boden12]

I was using Cardplayer's odds analysis to compare AKoff to some pocket pairs (ran JJ all the way down to 22) and noticed the percentages dropped from 57+% for JJ to 53% even for 22 (with the pocket pair using the opposite suits of the AKoff) and was curious as to why this was? I can see how the pocket pair is nearly always the favorite, but when playing heads up how can 77 be that much worse than JJ? Even if you hit your J, that's one of your opponents straight cards (same with 10-10). Wouldn't it all be the same? Basically

1) You hit and you win (you make your set)
2) Nobody hits and you win (bunch of blanks)
3) He hits and you lose (he hits an A or K)

The only exceptions would be like if the board came down with 2 pair higher than your pocket pair THEN his A would play. Or like a board with 4 of a kind (how common is that). Since you're playing opposite flushes (he has the AdKh and you have 9s9c) the sheer high card value of A vs 9 in a flush is meaningless. How does JJ have > 4% edge on 22? The other thing I noticed was that cardplayer.com also was varying the odds slightly when I ran through the same hands (keeping the same suits too!) as much as .2% in same cases. Shrug

[snoogins47]

If I'm not mistaken, Cardplayer's sim runs a certain number of simulated hands and shows the results accordingly, so therefore the same hands in the same situations can vary as far as percentages go.


If this is the case, that could cause some of the issues.

Note: I didn't even really read the post thoroughly, just telling you what I have heard of cardplayer's odds calc.

Apparently, www.pokertips.org has a nice hand sim that actually runs through every possible board and whatnot. A real representation of the odds.

Might want to give that a shot.

[Sh1rp]

In the case of JJ and TT, some of the possible straight cards for big slick are gone. Also, the lower and lower you get, if the board pairs twice, the two pair on the board have a higher chance of being bigger than the pair in your hand, making the ace kicker a winning hand.

[boden12]

so is 2 pair on the board SO common that it gives pocket jacks that much edge on pocket 2's against AK?? >4%