All - In Nut Flush Draw

[Hog Boss]

Hi All,

Sorry if this is an amateur question.

You hold A? suited and are heads up in a 6 player ring game and the flop produces two more of your flush cards. The flop is not paired.

You bet the pot value, and the other player goes all in.

Is it a donk move for me to call this kind of bet, or do the odds of making the flush make it acceptable play?

Thanks for any input.

Any suggestions on how you play possible nut flush draws would be welcome ie: how much do you bet after flop or do you slow play etc.

Many Thanks, Steve.

[HalfSugar]

You hold A? suited and are heads up in a 6 player ring game and the flop produces two more of your flush cards. The flop is not paired.

You bet the pot value, and the other player goes all in.

Is it a donk move for me to call this kind of bet, or do the odds of making the flush make it acceptable play?

It depends on A LOT of other factors but from a pure odds point of view, assuming your opponent has flopped something (eg at least a pair), the biggest factor is the size of your opponent's all-in bet.

There are 9 cards in the deck that give you the best hand and with the turn and river to go, you are between about 25% and 45% to make the best hand (25% is if you are up against a set, 33% assumes he has two pair and pairing your Ace is no good, and 45% assumes he just has a pair so pairing your ace is good). Depending on your read, it is better to assume you are towards the lower end of that range than the upper end so you should probably approach the decision as if you are no more than 33% or 2:1 to win.

If we designate the pre-flop pot size as X, after your pot sized bet on the flop, the pot is 2X. In order for your call to be right, your opponent's all-in bet has be less than 2X in total because you need to be getting (at least) 2:1 on your call (you'd be calling 2X to win a pot of 4X).

In a nutshell, if his all-in is equal to or less than the pot size after your flop bet, you could go ahead and call because you are getting 2:1 or better. If his bet is more than the pot then (depending on how much more) it comes down to what hand you put him on and how much you like to gamble. It also depends on what sort of game you are playing and whether busting him is particularly important (eg tourney vs cash game).

There is no hard and fast answer ultimately......

[Hog Boss]

Thanks for the great reply Geno, that explains things quite nicely.