all in on a nut flush draw

[rubix222]

In a no limit tourney at ultimatebet.com, I ended up chasing a draw to a loss. There were 2 spades on the board by the flop and I held A10 spades. A person to my left raised all-in. The highest card on the board was an 8. Nobody called him, until it came to me. I decided to call him. My reasons were that I had an almost 50/50 shot of hitting a spade, and if that didn't hit I still had 2 overcards. I figured he was on his last leg and was getting a bit desperate. I figured he had top pair at best. even if he had a pocket pair or a set, I knew a flush would beat him. I called and no spades showed up. I lost almost all of my stack. I was trying to sit back most of the tourney to get down to a money spot, but I thought this was a good chance to double my chips. It turned out he had a set of 4's.

I am mad at myself for calling with only a draw. Was this a totally wrong move to make? If so, is there any time where a draw is enough to call a big bet?

Thanks,

-Jeff

[HalfSugar]

Any reply obviously depends a lot on the situation in terms of how other players were playing, their chip counts, the blinds etc etc but like u said, it is about 50/50 and if ur gut said play then u made the 'right' choice. Don't be mad, u took a risk and it didn't pay off, if u r generally a more cautious player (as u seem to be reading between the lines) then you will win in the long run. Whenever u play tight and go out to this sort of situation it feels really bad for a while but u have to just shrug it off

[rubix222]

Thanks for your reply. I feel better already.

[smasharoo]

Actually it's about 100/50, no offense. But think it through. either you're caling a bluff or you believe he has 2 pair or better. Your pot odds with two people going all in are 1/1 and change based on the other bets into the pot.

Now if you think he's bluffing (that he has less than 2 pair) and you were calling him, that's fine. That's a judgement call on your part. If you buy that he has two pair, think about how many outs you have for the hand. There's 13 spades in the deck and you can see 4 so that's 9. You need one of those and have two shots at it. There are 47 cards that you don't know the value of so your chance at getting an ace in the two chances is:

47(the number of cards left) devided by 9 (the number of possible cards that you could catch to make the flush) devided by 2 (the number of chances you have to draw a flush completing card.

So. You're pot odds are 1/1 if we ignore the small change bets that are in there and you're chance of winning the hand with a flush is....drumroll please....2.6 to 1. Now, wait a minute, you say. What about cathing trips on the turn and the river, that should count as a chance too or even two high pair. Let's check it out shall we?

If you pair up either card on the turn you obviously don't make the flush on the turn so even assuming you pair one up your odds of still making the flush are now ~5 to 1 (slightly worse actualy). SO, unless your odds of getting the two pair (which would loose in this case anyway as you know, but you put the guy on two pair, so that's how you'd play it) are better than 2.6/1 they really don't effect the over all odds of beating the hand you've allready put the guy on. They're worse than 2.6/1 whcih I'm sure you knew instinctively but let's quickly see how much worse.

To make two pair or better outside of the flush draw you need to catch a card in the turn and the river both. Your odds of catching either a 10 or an A on the turn is 47/6 (47 card deck, three 10's three A's etc).

Or around 8 to 1 against. You need to catch a card in both slots so you need to catch that first 8 to 1 shot and then another one that's now a 46/5 chance which is over 9 to 1 against. So you're chances of making the two pair are over 70 to one. Making trips are even longer odds. In fact his odds of making a full house (which beats your flush obviously) are about the same as you making two pair, so let's not even think about it.

You made a bad bet. You bet a 2/1 underdog into a 1/1 best possible outcome. Thinking this was a 50/50 proposition is going to loose you money if you play it that way in a tight ring game or certainly in the next tournament you enter. Take it as a learning experience.

Now if the pot odds were difrent, we're talking about a whole diffrent thing. If you're playing the same hand in a 20/40 ring game and there's two people floating around after that flop now you're talking about an even money proposition. If there's 3 people hanging around after the flop you're talking about odds in your favor. Try to bet with odds in your favor and fold when the odds aren't in your favor and you'l be sucessfull at the game

Here's the process that goes through every players mind if he's not on tilt or short stacked or whatever and playing away from the odds out of desperation.

On the deal, play the right cards. Most people play WAY to many hands. You didn't fall prey to this which is good. ATs is fairly solid.

On the flop, depending on your position, and it turns out you were in the best position here because everyone folded to you because of the size of the bet, calculate the pot odds against your chance of drawing a winning hand and PUT PEOPLE ON HANDS and if the odds are IN YOUR FAVOR, bet if not, FOLD. It's that 'putting people on hands' part that sperates Johnny Chan from any solid player like myself. When I mess up it's generally in putting people on hands. That's the hard part. The odds are the easy part if you get the hands right.

At any rate you need to trust what hand you put the guy on when you're going to make a decision, and you put this guy on two pair. Because it's basicaly just you and him your pot odds shrink to 2/1. If 8 people went all in with the same hand with the same amount of chips now your pot odds are 8/1 and your chance of winning is still ~2/1 if you put them all on two pair. If you put them on trips..well you get the idea I think.

The same thing applies at the river. If you put a guy on a flush draw, his odds of pulling the 5th card in suit are the number of that suit that you know about (you might have one) devided by 47. So in general if you don't hold one of the flushing suit he's got about a 5/1 shot. If you're holding something that he needs to catch the flush to beat you bet that situation all day. (Allways keep in mind he could have a flush draw as well as a pair or a striaght draw etc)

Sorry that was so long. Anyway, it wasn't a bad beat it was bad calculation on your part. Learn from it.

[smasharoo]

I was drunk. Ignore the above post compeltely. My math is worse than a third graders.

[HalfSugar]

Math right or wrong, I think ur last comment about it being a bad calculation rather than a bad beat is a little harsh. No1 has time to sit and calculate the odds to that extent and without a great deal of experience, conclusions like those that u have drawn are not gonna come no matter how long u sit and deliberate. You do however make valid points, albeit in a somewhat lengthy way

[rubix222]

Wow! Thanks for all that info. A lot of it was very helpful in general for me. I just calculated it out and I get 35% chance of making the flush. If I add the chances that I pair the A or the 10 (or both), I get 48% of having a flush or top pair or top 2 pair or top trips. I figured him for a pair of 8's or lower anyway. Oh well, I live to fight another day.

Thanks again for the advice,

-Jeff

[Adamm]

I came up with 54%...
Fifteen outs right?
[ 1- ( 1 - (15/47))( 1 - (15/46)) ] = (roughly) .5412 ?

P.S. Smasharoo, we can delete that previous post if you're embarrassed. It might save this website a megabyte of memory too!

- Adam "Nitty Webmaster" Marshall

[Poker_Vendetta]

Notice, I am a novice. I can't READ anyone because I just play, play money on the internet but I don't think that is a really bad move on your part. If there are two spades on the FLOP, you have 2 chances to get it, not too bad of a chance IMO. And you've already commited just to one player so after you call you have nothing else to think about, you just have to hope for a spade. Now if you called on the turn, that would be a little risky. But I've seen on TV where Brian Mcbride (he DID get pretty lucky, 1998 WSOP 2nd place) called an All-in bet from a short stack with A-4c. I can't remember what the short stack had but on the flop two clubs came up and I think the short stack caught a card he needed. But on the turn no doubt a Club came off and he was a favorite, but somehow the short stack now had a STRAIGHT FLUSH DRAW. Mcbride called "Red Rag", and a spade came off knocking the short stack out. So I guess an aggressive player really likes that hand, and I definitely would call a big bet preflop with it. Personally.

[Texroadkill]

I think it was a judgement call. I've gone all in on flush draws and made it. I've also lost them.

Those are the types of calls that depend on the opponent and your positions. If you have a big chip advantage, were already in the money in a tournament and could knock out a player then it might be a good call.

If it was going to leave you broke and winning didn't put you in a money position than it's just gambling. Might as well play slot machines.

[Atrifix]

If you know he has a set, you're a huge underdog (around 4 to 1). If you put him on only top pair, though, then you made the right play since you're getting good odds. You're even a slight favorite to win.

[mike_z]

dont all of you know the 4/2 rule? if after the flop you have 4 hearts to a flush (meaning 9 outs to make that flush) you take the number of outs and multiply it by 4 giving you a 36% chance of making the flush on the turn. if on the turn you don't make it, you take the remaining number of outs (once again 9) and multiply it by 2 giving you an 18% chance of makin your flush on the river. this isn't exact but its as close as you can possibly get on the fly in the middle of a hand. this works for any hand and any situation as long as you know your outs.

later,
z

[nicthestick]

once your broke, your done. Any chips you can save for a better bet later on will be better used than chasing a flush draw to the river. Imho.

[Matt T]

Sklansky & Malmuth have a table in one of their books that gives percentages to hit a hand based on your # of outs with two cards to come. The "multiply your outs by 4 to get the percentage" is close (as mike said). Using the outsx4=% formula; if you only have a few outs your % number will be a little low and if you have a bunch of outs it will be too high to the true percentage. 9 outs is 35% per the table IIRC. Take the following with a grain of salt because I'm a beginner BUT since you said that this lost most of your chips, it seems a bit risky. Then again, since you thought he may have been on his last leg and you lost most of your chips, that would imply that you were almost on your last leg so maybe it wasn't so bad. Is poker always as clear as mud?

[american mutt]

Thats a big hand to muck.. I'd almost rather call and
not draw my flush, then fold, and then it came out, and
he wins with pocket jacks or something. Depending on
the guy, I may {MAY] have called it, or If I was feeling
froggy. Tough game. Obviously a 'decision by circumstance'
situation though.