Am i beat?

[jimmer]

This hand happened last night. I have no info on the others as I've only been at the table 10 minutes.

Seat 1: wanna63 ($4.60 in chips)
Seat 2: VinnyThePo0h ($10.45 in chips)
Seat 3: jbdb3 ($10.65 in chips)
Seat 4: Bananarama83 ($12.55 in chips)
Seat 5: Gologic ($8.80 in chips)
Seat 6: Golph1n ($11.00 in chips)
Seat 7: Angry Birds ($10.85 in chips)
Seat 8: RiskyMouse ($10.75 in chips)
Seat 9: peterja888 ($1.70 in chips)
Gologic: posts small blind $0.05
Golph1n: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jbdb3
Angry Birds: folds
RiskyMouse: folds
peterja888: folds
wanna63: folds
VinnyThePo0h: folds
jbdb3: raises $0.20 to $0.30
Bananarama83: folds
Gologic: folds
Golph1n: calls for $0.20
*** FLOP ***
Golph1n bets $0.50
jbdb3: raises $1 to $1.50
Golph1n re-raises all-in for $10.20
jbdb3: ???????

One side of me says the hand range that can beat me is pretty narrow, the other side of me says, who cares - it looks like I'm beat.

What do ya recon?

[odlozilik]

Well, you are beat over 50% of the time, but I am not sure I would ever fold this lol (at least without any read). At this level, it can be slowplayed AA, KK, any other PP or even AK.

[HalfSugar]

He flatted a raise in the BB at penny stakes - snap call. Unless he's a total douche/tricky weirdo you have him beat 95% of the time he has a Q. The only times you don't have him beat are Q4 or 44 in which case gg wp reload.

Fine, if he raised pre-flop, you called and he did this you could find a fold but facing the BB in this spot I just don't see that folding would ever be right, especially at these stakes where bad play is rife and it's only another 20c to see a flop.

[Ensano]

snap call.

at theses stakes JJ+ but even then you know V is going down with ANY Q

and if he shows 44/better Q you stilll have 25% equity

[miaowmiaowchowface]

100% call

[jimmer]

I call, he shows 4 4


(I hit a 10 on the river)

[Ensano]

I call, he shows 4 4


(I hit a 10 on the river)

that's why it's such a snap call. for all the hands you're a head of you even have equity when you're behind

[HalfSugar]

Granted that equity is 8% but hey, it's better than nothing.

[Ensano]

Granted that equity is 8% but hey, it's better than nothing.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

990 games 0.005 secs 198,000 games/sec

Board: Qc Qd 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 22.929% 22.93% 00.00% 227 0.00 { QhTd }
Hand 1: 77.071% 77.07% 00.00% 763 0.00 { 4d4h

[Ensano]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

21,780 games 0.005 secs 4,356,000 games/sec

Board: Qc Qd 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.265% 32.75% 11.52% 7133 2508.00 { QhTd }
Hand 1: 55.735% 44.22% 11.52% 9631 2508.00 { JJ, 4d4h, AQs, KQs, QTs+, AQo, KQo, QTo+ }

[jimmer]

sorry, that makes me a fold, right?

[Ensano]

sorry, that makes me a fold, right?

fistpump call

[HalfSugar]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

990 games 0.005 secs 198,000 games/sec

Board: Qc Qd 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 22.929% 22.93% 00.00% 227 0.00 { QhTd }
Hand 1: 77.071% 77.07% 00.00% 763 0.00 { 4d4h

Explain how they arrive at 23% would you? I'm not seeing it.

I suppose any turn card other than a 4 is OK because you end up with 7 outs on the river (QTTTXXX where X is the turn card) but I still don't see how it ends up as high as 23%.

[odlozilik]

Come on Geno, do you really need to explain?

4 outs on the turn: 4/45=8.888%
7 outs on the river: 7/44=15.909%

That's together 24.7979%, from which we have to discount a little bit for the 1 outer 4 (I am not sure, how exactly actually, I would have to think more).

[HalfSugar]

Oops, I think I'm having a speshul weekend.

I was saying "four outs, two pulls of the deck = 8%" for some reason