Another big river decision

[HalfSugar]

$3 rebuy on Stars, we are through the rebuys but only by about 15mins. I have decent stack as you can see but I just got moved so zero reads.

PokerStars Game #30025221832: Tournament #175253004, $3.00+$0.30 Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (125/250) - 2009/07/02 16:04:02 ET
Table '175253004 312' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: Chris0682 (3960 in chips)
Seat 2: CPR897664921 (4725 in chips)
Seat 3: orkashenka (16880 in chips)
Seat 4: jumbojoe1987 (23005 in chips)
Seat 5: free speks (8340 in chips)
Seat 6: l@peste (4445 in chips)
Seat 7: GenoTHP (14270 in chips)
Seat 8: chemagarbajo (19875 in chips)
Seat 9: Tizzle 10 (14610 in chips)
Chris0682: posts the ante 30
CPR897664921: posts the ante 30
orkashenka: posts the ante 30
jumbojoe1987: posts the ante 30
free speks: posts the ante 30
l@peste: posts the ante 30
GenoTHP: posts the ante 30
chemagarbajo: posts the ante 30
Tizzle 10: posts the ante 30
GenoTHP: posts small blind 125
chemagarbajo: posts big blind 250
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to GenoTHP [Qc Qs]
Tizzle 10: folds
Chris0682: calls 250
CPR897664921: folds
orkashenka: folds
jumbojoe1987: calls 250
free speks: folds
l@peste: folds
GenoTHP: raises 1000 to 1250
chemagarbajo: folds
Chris0682: folds
jumbojoe1987: calls 1000
*** FLOP *** [4d Qd 3s]
GenoTHP: checks
jumbojoe1987: checks
*** TURN *** [4d Qd 3s] [Tc]
GenoTHP: bets 1625
jumbojoe1987: calls 1625
*** RIVER *** [4d Qd 3s Tc] [2d]
GenoTHP: bets 2200
jumbojoe1987: raises 4300 to 6500
GenoTHP...........calls for time

First thing's first, I think I misplayed every street in hindsight! Pre-flop was too small for starters behind two limpers and being OOP post-flop albeit with good holdings.

Secondly, I would rarely check this flop with two diamonds and connectors out there but I figured the connectors ought to be dead to his range and 3/4 of the deck bricks any flush draw on the turn. I think this is probably the worst street.

The turn is a great card for me as I still have the nuts and it could feasibly help him a lot (TT) or enough to get me paid (AJ, AT, KJ). My turn bet is too small I think and I'd probably go to 2K in hindsight.

River is an ugly card so I stick in a blocker hoping not to see a raise. Of course, he asks the big question and I call for time. I considered it for 45 seconds before making my move. That is about 4.5 times longer than any online decision ever

So what's it to be? Call or fold?

[Muck]

Focusing on the river, played as you did, I call here most of the time.

Call:
-Your getting good pot odds.
-You have an okay stack left.
-You haven’t shown much strength, you look like your trying to buy it cheap.
-Flush draw is less likely heads up, plus he’d probably semi-bluff you flop check.
-A5s is an unlikely pre-flop caller even with position.
-Despite the danger I mention in the betting pattern below, it doesn’t fit the texture of the board, that pattern suggests your beaten from the flop but he could only have taken the lead on the river.

Fold:
-He knows you’re getting good pot odds.
-You’ve lead the aggression and he’s still willing to re-raise.
-He’s happily cold called everything you bet and then raised before the very end, that’s a dangerous pattern.

[xDiamond_CutteRx]

I probably call because of the pot odds, but I think I'm wrong most of the time in the $3 rebuy. On a river like that, it seems to me that low limit players are not making moves very often, but the game is played on a higher level than normal now. Your hand is very under-represented as well.

I am a little curious, though, why he checked the flop if he had a flush draw. In my experience, players loooooove to semi-bluff the flopped flush draw in tournaments.

Muck's analysis is pretty good. I think this is a call.

[miaowmiaowchowface]

bet flop small, bet turn, all in river


as played snapcall

[HalfSugar]

as played snapcall

Really? I dunno about that.

Here's what happened. I thought about the way he played the hand and decided that it was too perfect to be diamonds. He played it exactly as if he wanted me to believe he had diamonds on the river which didn't add up because of the flop check. I knew he didn't have air but I figured AX was realistic so I figured I'd look him up. I don't know if I got lucky, I do know that I'd play it different on the flop next time for sure.

GenoTHP: calls 4300
*** SHOW DOWN ***
jumbojoe1987: shows [Kh Jh] (high card King)
GenoTHP: shows [Qc Qs] (three of a kind, Queens)
GenoTHP collected 19520 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 19520 | Rake 0
Board [4d Qd 3s Tc 2d]
Seat 1: Chris0682 folded before Flop
Seat 2: CPR897664921 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: orkashenka folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: jumbojoe1987 showed [Kh Jh] and lost with high card King
Seat 5: free speks folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: l@peste (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: GenoTHP (small blind) showed [Qc Qs] and won (19520) with three of a kind, Queens
Seat 8: chemagarbajo (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: Tizzle 10 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[Muck]

as played snapcall

Really? I dunno about that.

I could find a fold here, but only if I had a high confidence in my reads. I.e. he had shown that he:
1-Overrates suited cards and plays any ranks from any positions.
2-Passively limp calls and check calls a lot.
3-Plays flush draws as cheaply as possible until he hits.
4-Doesn’t semi-bluff flush draws.

I’ve encountered 1 and 2 very often. But 3 and 4 are much more rare.

[xDiamond_CutteRx]

In today's games, I have a much, much harder time ever finding a fold here.

[HalfSugar]

As I said in the OP, this was in a vacuum having just moved tables.

The great thing about this was that having taken a nice pot there, on the very next hand I got JJ, raised and was HU to a flop of J65. I bet that one and got called, turn was a 7 and I was raised AI. I snapped and he showed 77. That hand was vs chemagarbajo in seat 8 who dumped off 20K chips to me. That put me in a good spot with about 2,500 players left. I ended up busting about 350th unfortunately but hey, it was a decent enough run with 6,000 starters.

[Muck]

What about yesterday?

Seriously though I would rarely fold this but I think I could talk myself into it depend how much I might be tilting.

The problem is the villain has probably played a bad hand badly and got lucky or has just played a bad hand badly full stop. Either way he doesn’t deserver too win but might do (from either my call or fold) and that’s gona annoy me. If I fold it’s likely because my confidence has taken a hit in a recent hand.

Perhaps this is more psychoanalysis than hands analysis.

[UrAteUp]

Your right. You made one horrible play after the flop. Villian made a worse play though. Being villian I would have bet here hoping to get you to put me on a flush draw.

I think given the fact villian didn't bet the flop...you got an easy call on the river. Only in the low limits I play ($1-$2 SNGs) do you see people checking on a flsuh draw with that kind of flop.

[Ciso_B]

I like that you're willing to admit you made mistakes on the hand andy, and just to also comment, your flop check and turn small lead, induced the bluff, so altho u played it somewhat poorly, you made alot becaose of it. Funny game poker is eh?

I prefer the bet every street line, cos ppl will flat flop and find reasons to pay off later streets too. I think just leading right out gets value from smalers pairs like u said in the other hand like 77, and also ppl make moves at bigger pots so yeh, i like the bet bet bet line like eldar said. Except I dunno about shove river.

credit to muck too, his points all valid.