another triple draw question

[kainARGH]

If your opponent is drawing 1 on the final draw , where do you feel its best to stand pat?

In super system I believe daniel says even J high is favored VS someone drawing 1 , so I've been standing pat with J high VS someone drawing 1 on the final draw. Seems to work out ok , but when people draw out on me , I wonder if i was better off drawing 1.

thoughts ?

[xDiamond_CutteRx]

By and large that is reasonably correct. If they are drawing one, you are probably better standing pat with J-high in position, provided it's a decent Jack (J9876 should probably have been discarded already, but for the sake of the argument let's say you instead draw one).

Think about this way. Say you have a perfect Jack (ie J5432). You must catch exactly a 7, 8, 9, or 10 to improve your hand. That's 16 cards at most, probably some of which have been discarded, or in the case of the 7 and/or 8, are in your opponent's hand. Note if your opponent is drawing 1, he is almost always going to be behind your Jack low, and even if you have the exact same hand, you have the better of the situation, both because you are in position and he is taking a losing gamble. Your opponent will occasionally catch on you, but standing pat with a Jack in position heads-up against an opponent is almost always a +EV play.

[kainARGH]

Your opponent will occasionally catch on you, but standing pat with a Jack in position heads-up against an opponent is almost always a +EV play.

Thanks as always diamond - Was loseing this morning on several occasion to people drawing 1 on the final , wanted to verify I was correct. Ended up breaking even though so meh.

Also as a side note , I only stand pat with J high in posistion , oop ill only do this if I feel villan is sneaky or trying to make a move , so by standing pat in front he will pause for 5 seconds then draw 1. otherwise if im oop with j high its usually after a bad 1st draw and im out of there or if my opponents have been drawing 3 or 2 , and im drawing 1 and land a j high with 1 draw to come ill stand pat.