Beginners luck or is it more than that? Should I quit now?

[live4themusic]

My question may be a little different than most of the questions here as it's not exactly about tactics. It's about whether I should keep playing poker or not.

Brief background: I learned how to play texas hold em my freshman year of college in 2003 and me and some of my dorm buddies played a nearly weekly poker game. I generally always lost my $5 in chips, but had a good time nevertheless. I looked at it as a recreational thing. In 2005 I organized a few games with some friends and lost those games too. I never really studied the game in depth like I see a lot of people do.

Just this year some friends started organizing a weekly game. When I went to the first one I played and drank with them and had a good time but lost all my cards pretty quickly. Didn't come back for 3 weeks and didn't play or practice at all during that time. My assumption at this point was that I was a weak or average poker player, but not good enough to play seriously. Came back after 3 weeks to one of their games, knowing I had to leave early, but I figured I would be out of chips by that time. I ended up playing and winning much better than I expected. By the time I had to leave I was up from $5 to $21 and was the chip leader at my table (these are usually 2-table winner-takes-all tournaments). I sold my chips to someone else who wanted to get back in the game since buy-ins had ended, and they ended up winning that week. Following week I came in second out of 14 people, but lost against my friend Matt who has now won 6 out of the 8 weeklies that they have played so far.

Next week I went head-to-head against Matt (the winner from the last weeks) at my table and took him out all in. A new guy at the other table had taken all of the chips at that table by the time we combined tables, and was beating me by a bit. Eventually everyone else went out and by midnight me and new guy decide to split the pot.

This last Friday night I organized a house mini-tournament with 7 other friends, 2 inexperienced, and 2 who have been studying and playing poker for years. I ended up winning the tournament (but my least experienced friend was the one who made it to second, and at the point where it came down to just the two of us, she had almost twice as many chips as me).

So Saturday night I decided, f*ck it, this has to be luck, I'm going to go to the casino, get schooled and drop this nagging feeling I might be naturally really good that I have.
Rolled into a nearby casino at 4 AM. Bought in with the $100 I had won over the past few weeks and played for a few hours at a $1/$2 NL. By the time my friends had to leave I was up $580. My friend Chris who also came and has been playing seriously for 3 years lost $240.
Went BACK 12 hours later, played for 3 hours, and only won $53. However this session I was getting the worst luck of any poker session so far. Getting hands like 24offsuit, 27offsuit, 67offsuit back to back was not uncommon. Also, I was incredibly tired and not even playing my best. But I still was up a little bit.

So I've told some people about the luck(?) i've been having and everyone's telling me to stop now while I'm up, I'm getting addicted, etc. etc.

My question is this: based on the success I've been having recently, is there any reason I should believe I can keep playing and winning money? Is it probable that his has all been due to luck and I should expect to lose money if I keep playing? I'd really like to keep playing because I have fun but don't want to lose a ton of money and people are calling me a gambling addict now.

[REDMAN]

Most likely you are getting lucky. Do you know when you should play? What cards to play? What % chance you have to win specific situations. Can you put you opponents on hands that you know they will call a sepecific amount and then bet that amount. If you do not know if you are getting lucky you probably are just getting lucky. To be a winner in poker with the money the house takes you have to be better than probably 80% of your opponents. If you are a beginner you are most likely very bad at the game but everyone is a beginner once.

[crack]

That's the best thing about poker. In the short term a bad player can beat a top player. In the long term though the top player will crush the bad player. Luck or variance is the type of thing that keeps the bad players interested, but in truth it is skill that will always prevail in the long run.

It's like roulette when they say the house always wins in the end.

Maybe you do have a good ability to read players and situations, maybe you're getting some really good hands and situations against other players where there is nothing they can do.

To be good requires practice, and just remember, because you beat a good player once doesn't make you better than them.

It kind of up to you if you want to continue or not. If you don't want to lose loads then don't put yourself in the position. Knock the casinos on the head and just play those little games with your friends as recreational activity.

If you want to learn the game then post here, maybe read some books and play very small online or something.

[live4themusic]

I think my streak of success so far is largely due to being able to read people by playing with them directly. I'm about to try my hand at some online play, but I don't know any of the mathematical calculations besides some basic probability work I can do in my head using what I learned in Algebra 2 in high school, and some info about the strength of various hands I just looked up today. Is it possible for a player to only be good playing in person based on reading them physically and still be below average at online play?

Also, my initial investment of $5 from the house game I played about 3 weeks ago has now grown to $800. Even if I lose that, I'll still be back where I started monetarily with a ton more experience. So I don't see a downside to continuing to play and only see lots of potential to make more money. I'm mainly concerned about people calling me 'addicted' now though.

[Ensano]

right now the single most important thing you need to learn is bankroll management.

yeah there is no doubt that you just went on a heater. doesn't mean that you are a horrible player and not even worthy to touch cards again. what you need to do is realize that you were on a hot streak and take advantage of your good fortune.

standard rule for a bankroll is to have 20 buy ins for whatever game you're playing so that you won't go broke.

because you're just learning i'd suggest stretching that so say 40.

800/40 is $20.

so basically what I'm saying is take that 800$ go buy a poker book (professional no limit holdem is a good one and I suggest it) put the rest in an envelope then tuck it into the back of your sock drawer. AND NEVER use the money for something non poker related.

then start playing poker and start learning with a rule that you will never buy into a game for more than $20.

so all those little 5$ games are fine but don't go too crazy. as you play and get better you'll start to see the envelope get fuller.

when you think about playing for bigger stakes just count out how much money you have and divide by 40 and I promise you'll start winning regularly before going busto.

if you want to play online take 100$ and deposit it on pokerstars (lowest rake for low stakes) and play the .01/.02 tables and always buy in for the full amount.

it'll help to think of your online account as a seperate bankroll and keep it within 20 buyins but knowing that if you lose the 100$ you can reload but I doubt you'll have to unless you're an aggrodonk.

eventually you'll see a ton of cash online and live and in say 4 months you'll look back on your heater and thank the poker gods for this opportunity.

[REDMAN]

Ensano is clearly an optimist. Here is the truth about poker 90% of players are net losers and almost all players over estimate their ability. The 1st step in becoming a better player is to realize you are bad right now and make a decision to become better. You may think differently as you think you can read someone’s hand based on physical tells. Right now you have no idea even what I mean when I say can you put an opponent on a hand. Actual 99% of putting an opponent on a range of hands has nothing to do with physical tells. It is all about betting patterns and prior behavior. In most cases you would not know what to do even if your opponent told you his range. If you do not know if your hand is good vs. the range of hands he may have what good is it to know his range? If you do not know what exact % change you have of winning vs. his range and how you opponent with act, how can you give your opponent the worst odds he will accept to call your bet.

Poker in a nut shell is a game of giving odds and taking odds. That means you when you bet you are saying to your opponent I know in general what hand you have based on your actions and because of this and the knowledge of my hand and all other factors I know about you and your past behavior I will charge you x % for giving you a chance to beat me. If you think about poker this way and then add the human element when betting may have nothing to do with the cards you hold or the card you think your opponent has but just about how your opponent will act (will they fold raise or call) you will start to realize how bad you are.

I play with some people that think they are good and it is so easy to beat then. I think I am good and I have played with others that were so much better than me that other than getting lucky I had no chance of winning. This is a fun game but the general knowledge of how to play it is so wrong it is shocking. Plus on top of all that you have to beat the rake. Making money at this long term is a long shot at best. People do win consitantly but not many.

[Ensano]

you're telling the guy to get way ahead of what he needs to do...

it's like telling someone to learn about the physics and details of running but all he can do it crawl.

establishing ranges and EV against those ranges, etc is all more advanced stuff right now.

basics, sheer basics is where people have to start.

BR managament
starting hand requirements,
selective aggression
modesty
proper bettting amount
game selection

understanding that poker is more complicated that your cards and the flop

THEN
valuebetting,
bluffing
opponents hands and ranges
board textures and how they relate to V ranges...



seriously dude... buy, the theory of poker and proffesional no limit holdem, for real entertaining + a little big or learning john vorhaus has a few books on poker that I read when i first started (aren't really good for today's game) but he was a writer who researched poker and wrote about it so they are easy to read and he has some really interesting stories..

if you want I have a bunch of books that I could sell to you for a steal or if you just wanted to borrow them (paying for shipping of course) I would be more than happy to part with them

[REDMAN]

I am not trying to be a jerk. When I play I love it when people over estimate their ability. But on this sight I am actually honest more because it helps me think about situations and get better at poker than I want to teach a fish to play. But I wish someone would have laid out what poker is when I started rather than allowing me to delude myself thinking I was better than I was/am. The most important trait in a poker player is being honest about your ability. I just want to make the point that you have actualy made. Keep your stakes low and try to learn the game.

[odlozilik]

Although all the suggestions here might be right, I think you should listen to your intuition a bit and follow your heart. How did you win those 800$ in the casino? Did you get lucky in some crucial pots or did you really dominate the game? If so, you can try again and see in a little bit longer run, where you stand (you don't have to risk the whole 800 though).
You can also post some interesting hands here, if you remember any.

[Northern Hillbilly]

Let me ask you this. Are you playing for fun or to make money ?


If for fun no need to quit. If you are doing solely to make money learn how to improve your game be prepared to lose your shirt a few times. I consider myself a winning player or at least I did . Till this last 2 weeks . But before I started winning consistently and increasing my "bankroll" . When I started I lost and lost and then I lost some more.

I remember one game when I first started this was up north and I was up about 150$ for the night when a guy at the table said to me while outside on a smoke break. "damn man you are playing good cards tonight" In all actuality I was getting lucky and he knew it . We went inside and I proceeded to lose all my chips in the next 45 minutes or so. Went to my head and I started playing even worse :D

Practice and practice learn how to improve your game and don't keep playing same people all the time that actually hurts your game I think. Try to get to a casino or find a few local games to play with different people. When you (or at least for me) play the same people consistently it becomes easy and your game can relax a little

[live4themusic]

I appreciate all the advice.

I got a copy of Professional No Limit Hold Em as a couple of you recommended and am starting on that, although I've already encountered a few references to 'basics' that the book assumes i should already know that I'm not completely clear on ('Expectations'?).

However, what I guess I'm not so surprised to see is some of the concepts in the book, outs and pot odds, are things I already have been doing at a basic level.

Anyway, I am having a ton of fun playing, getting free drinks, free buffets, but at this point I am also expecting to continue winning money. I admit I'm still behind most of the people I play with at casinos at the mathematical side of poker. However, I have been having great success just paying attention to what's going on in the game, learning how people play, and figuring out what's going to happen based on reads I get off of people.

I've kept a log of my performance so far, starting from Tuesday 2/9 (my friends have been running a weekly $5-buy-in winner-takes-all Tuesday poker game once a week for a while). I did go once 3 weeks before 2/9 and lost my $5 pretty quickly. Anyway, here it is:

Tuesday 2/9/10
Bought in with $5, left with $21 = winnings of $16
Tuesday 2/16/10
Bought in with $5, made it to second but lost = loss of $5
Tuesday 2/23/10
Bought in with $5, split at midnight 40/60, left with $40 = winnings of $35
Friday 2/26/10
Bought in with $5, won, left with $30 = winnings of $25
Saturday 2/27/10
Bought in at $1/$2 NL for $100, left with $681 = winnings of $581
Sunday 2/28/10
Bought in at 1/2 NL for $100, rebought for another $100, left with $253 = winnings of $53
Tuesday 2/2/10
Bought in for $5, rebought for $5, won, left with $105 = winnings of $95
Wednesday 2/3/10
Bought in at 1/2 NL for $100, rebought for another $100, left with $357 = winnings of $157

TOTAL WINNINGS = $957

This is all from an initial $5 investment, not too shabby in my opinion.

I'm sure I could lose it all very quickly, but even if I did, I'd be happy with getting to play as much as I have for my initial $5. I think I'm going to keep going back to the casinos though.

I also started an account at Pokerstars and have been doing pretty bad there, but I'm not counting that (loss of $40 so far) because A) I suspect most people playing online are using programs that calculate odds, pot odds, etc. for you as you play which you have to pay for, and B) it's nothing like playing in person for me, I'm basically looking at it as practice to help me figure out the math side of poker. I figure if I get that down then I'll REALLY be in good shape.