Bet sizing- help me busto this fish

[miaowmiaowchowface]

Villain is playing one cash game and one tournament, I've seen him before and he's pretty awful, stationy too. I isolate him regularly, so he may fight back (but it's not that likely, and if it is, it's in that dodgy fishy way). Postflop, how are we going to get the most of his money in the middle?

Seat 1: H ($4575.40 in chips)
Seat 2:
Seat 3:
Seat 4:
Seat 5:
Seat 6:
Seat 7: V ($3429.10 in chips)
Seat 8:
Seat 9:
: posts small blind $10
: posts big blind $20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
H[2d 2c]
V: calls $20
: folds
: folds
H: raises $80 to $100
: folds
: folds
: folds
: folds
: folds
V: calls $80
*** FLOP *** [7c 3d 2h] pot: 230
V: checks
H: bets $180
V: calls $180
*** TURN *** [7c 3d 2h] [9h] pot: 590
V: checks
H: bets $540
V: calls $540
*** RIVER *** [7c 3d 2h 9h] [9s] pot:1670
V: checks


Comments on sizing of bets for all 3 streets welcome
(can't figure out where I misadded the pots, I'm so stupid, but this is about right)

[ErinJeff]

I put him on an overpair to the flop of 88+, although discount the upper end of the range QQ+ unless he never 3bets. You have made strong bets of the flop and turn. Pot is $1640 going to the river so I would continue the scaled bets and go $1500. I doubt if you push that he will call unless he has a better hand than an overpair (which means you're beat).

[miaowmiaowchowface]

I put him on an overpair to the flop of 88+, although discount the upper end of the range QQ+ unless he never 3bets. You have made strong bets of the flop and turn. Pot is $1640 going to the river so I would continue the scaled bets and go $1500. I doubt if you push that he will call unless he has a better hand than an overpair (which means you're beat).

thx for putting in pot size there, I should have done that. will edit

NB. it wouldn't be a normal 3bet, it'd be an LRR which would show more strength than a normal 3bet imo=/

[ErinJeff]

NB. it wouldn't be a normal 3bet, it'd be an LRR which would show more strength than a normal 3bet imo=/

Good point, I missed this and it would indicate a substantially stronger hand. At NL25 and NL50 this is almost always KK+. I'm sure it's different at your level, but against a fish, who knows.

[kingetje]

pot?

dont see him folding any pair pretty much. so maybe an overbet or a shove even will do. but pot would be the default i reckon

[Ensano]

i'd bet 1k..

[ErinJeff]

(can't figure out where I misadded the pots, I'm so stupid, but this is about right

You didn't, I didn't count the blinds.

[jeffonline]

Its easy to say bet the pot on all 3 streets but on the river I think you must also consider his stack and what odds you offer for the call, the pot is $1670 and his stack is $2600 if you are concerned about him folding, I like to bet half his stack in this instance $1300, you are offering him 2.3/1 and if he gets it wrong he's left with half his stack.

[xDiamond_CutteRx]

This is one circumstance where an overbet might be really +EV, especially if he's liable to stack off light and is determined to "keep you honest."

[Jauron]

This is one circumstance where an overbet might be really +EV, especially if he's liable to stack off light and is determined to "keep you honest."

Dunno, there isn't any missed draws and board pairing turn and river should make hand he could beat slow down a little. I don't play this high can they be dumb enough to stack off with much here? I'd go with value bet of ~1K.

[odlozilik]

Mioaw, didn't you say once you are used to overbet the 3rd barrel even with air? Why not to do it now...

[kingetje]

jauron, you have to think about what the board looks like and what he could call with. this board is super super dry. the board is basically the flop, as the two 9's on the turn and river are both complete blanks and changed nothing. this leaves basically just the flop out there. seeing as he already called 2 streets and it looks like he has some pocket pair or a 7X type of hand, and theres nothing on this board that could really scare him out of a call, so an overbet would actually be perfect here. we know hes a bit of a station, and he looks stubborn, which speaks in favor of that overbet even more..

you say the board doesnt have any missed draws, well doesnt that mean he probably didnt have a draw? thats good for us that means he has something to call with

you also said the paired board might slow him down, but its quite the opposite if you ask me. if you have 88 on a 732 flop, what turn and river card are gonna scare you the most? 732-9-9, or 2 other random cards like 732-T-6? obviously the two 9's are way better and more comfortable for your 88 there

[Yozman]

if i were playing id bet 950 but with time on my hands i think you can shove here and get called

[miaowmiaowchowface]

Mioaw, didn't you say once you are used to overbet the 3rd barrel even with air? Why not to do it now...

this strategy is usually applied vs competent players where history is developed as well. Against a fish it's generally not that wise to 3barrel shove with air because the overbet isn't necessary, especially when they don't pay attention to the bet sizing most of the time, so your overbets against fish should be heavily weighted towards valuebets unless you have extensive history with them and think they remember you.

I think the argument here is whether we think the 3rd barrel should be an overbet or not because the repeat on the riv. def will increase his propensity to call, maybe not so much if it was a 7 (they are idiots and will put you on trips even though it doesn't make much sense). He now has 2 pairs though!

[Jauron]

jauron, you have to think about what the board looks like and what he could call with. this board is super super dry. the board is basically the flop, as the two 9's on the turn and river are both complete blanks and changed nothing. this leaves basically just the flop out there. seeing as he already called 2 streets and it looks like he has some pocket pair or a 7X type of hand, and theres nothing on this board that could really scare him out of a call, so an overbet would actually be perfect here. we know hes a bit of a station, and he looks stubborn, which speaks in favor of that overbet even more..

you say the board doesnt have any missed draws, well doesnt that mean he probably didnt have a draw? thats good for us that means he has something to call with

you also said the paired board might slow him down, but its quite the opposite if you ask me. if you have 88 on a 732 flop, what turn and river card are gonna scare you the most? 732-9-9, or 2 other random cards like 732-T-6? obviously the two 9's are way better and more comfortable for your 88 there

I was refering to us having missed a draw, like I push end because I don't want showdown.

Board pairing on end should slow us down if we flopped big (2 pair) with garbage. So basically we are saying we can beat 2 pair or we stack off with TP or overpair. Since I'm guessing we don't stack off with TP we are repping trips or big pair, he should need a big hand to call.

IMO we should bet like we have TP to get a call. Maybe my thinking is flawed somewhere...

If he's just an idiot fish (they play THIS high?) then f*ck it push and pray he's got enough to call.