Unfortunately, life intrudes from time to time, preventing me from logging as many hands as I'd like. I was only able to play a small number of hands the past two days, and I took a hit to the bankroll equaling $.08. I need to buckle down though if I'm going to reach my goal in a reasonable period.

The time off hasn't been a complete waste however. I restarted my PokerOffice database, removing the ill-advised NL sessions, and created a profit graph from the relevant hands I've played to date.



As you can see from this overview screenshot, even with the losing hands mixed in, I'm still running at a pretty good clip: 18.65bb/100. This is well below my projected average winrate of 100bb/100, but those annoying losing hands are cutting into the profits. I'm afraid I may be forced to reassess that number for the short term, until I'm confident I can dodge all variance. Ultimately, I need to gradually reduce my "SawFlop %" until my "ShowdownsWon %" reaches 100%. My best guess at my winrate for the next 300 hands is 42.25bb/100. This includes an upward adjustment of 2 standard deviations above my current average per session. I add two here because I tend to be more deviant than standard.



This graph is showing the gradual climb in my profit (in bb) over the hefty sample. Projecting these numbers out, and factoring in my newly calculated winrate, I can expect to reach my goal in 179 hands.

The one glaring problem with the profit graph is the obvious dip at the start. I can only explain this in one way: bad beat.

My first hand of the session, I posted my blind behind the button and was dealt 83o. Learning my previous lessons in the big blind, I chose to check my option. The flop came 852! I had flopped a bona-fide monster, and the UTG player bet! It folded to me, and I raised for value. The blinds folded and the original bettor, no doubt realizing he was drawing near dead, simply called.

The turn was a 7. UTG checked to me, and I bet with what was obviously the best hand. The donkey check-raised! I couldn't believe it! How could he possibly make a move at this pot now? I'd shown nothing but strength, and here he was trying to move me off my monster. Deciding to let him hang himself, I smooth call.

The river is a 4. UTG leads into me, and I quickly raise. He 3-bets just as quickly. At that point, I knew my trickiness on the turn had come back to haunt me, allowing him to suck out. I made a crying call, and he flipped over his rivered pocket aces.

Damn Riverstars.

Bankroll: $2.98
$$$ to Go: $3.02