Chasing Straights

[pharlap99]

As i am a new player to poker (7 months) i was wondering if long time players have more luck chasing straights (5-9) than chasing trips holding pocket pairs (7,7)?

[jimmer]

Welcome to the forum.

I've just moved your question to our odds, math and probability section. It's a good question, and i think one of our regulars should be able to answer this for you.

Once again, welcome to the forum and keep asking questions!

[miaowmiaowchowface]

sounds like a bad beat story imo

[jeffonline]

Its not a matter of luck, it’s a matter of how you get there and what your being offered in the way of odds/cost for the journey, you must also consider if your opponent/s are deep enough and aggressive enough to pay you off if you hit. There is no simple answer IMO. A competent player will draw or toss both hands depending on the circumstances.

[pharlap99]

Its not a matter of luck, it’s a matter of how you get there and what your being offered in the way of odds/cost for the journey, you must also consider if your opponent/s are deep enough and aggressive enough to pay you off if you hit. There is no simple answer IMO. A competent player will draw or toss both hands depending on the circumstances.

Thank you mate, good to get an answer that is helpful

[pharlap99]

sounds like a bad beat story imo

If you can't give me a proper answer don't answer at all, thankyou

[lwestatbus]

sounds like a bad beat story imo

If you can't give me a proper answer don't answer at all, thankyou

miaowmiaow is our resident grump. You can mostly ignore him but every once in a while he posts a civil answer that actually answers a question.

Any kind of chase decision is one of the purest examples of expected value (often abbreviated here as EV) analysis in poker.

A big decision about chasing straights vs sets to a pocket pair (PP) is that you know about the PP when the hole cards are dealt and don't know about the straight until the flop comes out.

Now whenever I am looking at odds I fivure that I have a 2% chance of getting any single card I need for every card left to be seen. This is pretty close on the flop and becomes slightly less accurate as the turn and river are considered.

So if you have a PP there are two cards that can give you a set. With the flop to come you have three cards to be seen, 2 cards to give you the set, and a 2% chance of seeing any of them ( 3 x 2 x 2%) = c. 12% chance of flopping the set. If you miss the set on the flop you are now down to one card to be seen, 2 cards to make the set, and 2%/card ( 1 x 2 x 2%) = 4% to make the set. So if you are looking at passive calling you need to have the value of the pot x the probability of making your hand be greater than the cost of calling. (Ideally, of course, if you miss the flop you'll get a free shot at the turn but don't count on it.)

If you see a flop and hit an open ended straight draw (OESD) or a double gut-shot straight draw you have eight cards that will make your hand. 8 cards x 2%/card x 2 streets (flop + river) = c. 32% or 1/3 chance of making your straight. But... you need to pay to see the turn and the river incrementally. On each street you need to decide if the EV makes it worth while to see the next one knowing that when deciding about the turn you may face a new bet to see the river.

If you see the turn with either hand, with one more card to see, you have eight cards that can make your open ended straight draw and only two make a set on the river.

One of the biggest factors that affect either decision is whether the pot is multiway or not. If there are a lot of players then you are more likely to have the EV to chase because of the pot size. Also, I'm not getting into "implied odds" here as its pushing midnight but these skew decisions.