Comments please

[Gogie]

I'm interested in comments anyone has on the play of Rounder63. To set the stage, this was the final table of a 45 player SNG on FT with a buy-in of $69 + $6. The top 6 get paid and it's bubble time. Pay attention to what happens after the short stack pushes.

Full Tilt Poker Game #9254677631: $69 + $6 Sit & Go (70752627), Table 3 - 250/500 - No Limit Hold'em - 20:21:09 ET - 2008/11/30
Seat 1: tumble39 (10,205)
Seat 2: Gogie (8,250)
Seat 3: Drze69 (2,490)
Seat 4: senna77 (965)
Seat 5: paynely (8,300)
Seat 6: Rounder63 (27,935)
Seat 7: reilly10 (9,355)
paynely posts the small blind of 250
Rounder63 posts the big blind of 500
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Gogie [6h 2c]
reilly10 folds
tumble39 calls 500
Gogie folds
Drze69 folds
senna77 raises to 965, and is all in
paynely calls 715
Rounder63 raises to 3,500
tumble39 folds
paynely folds
Rounder63 shows [2d 6c]
senna77 shows [9d Ah]
Uncalled bet of 2,535 returned to Rounder63
*** FLOP *** [2h 4d 5s]
*** TURN *** [2h 4d 5s] [4s]
*** RIVER *** [2h 4d 5s 4s] [8d]
Rounder63 shows two pair, Fours and Twos
senna77 shows a pair of Fours
Rounder63 wins the pot (3,395) with two pair, Fours and Twos
senna77 stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3,395 | Rake 0
Board: [2h 4d 5s 4s 8d]
Seat 1: tumble39 folded before the Flop
Seat 2: Gogie didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: Drze69 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: senna77 (button) showed [9d Ah] and lost with a pair of Fours
Seat 5: paynely (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: Rounder63 (big blind) showed [2d 6c] and won (3,395) with two pair, Fours and Twos
Seat 7: reilly10 didn't bet (folded)

[Jauron]

I like it, he's big stack on bubble getting better than 5-1, SB showed no strength, dead money and heads up 5 cards getting good price. SB can't risk calling w/o premium hand. It's pretty risk free.

[MrDarling]

I like it, but for different reasons.
I like it due to chip distribution.

Its the bubble and he have a huge chip lead on the rest of the field. Shortie is so short, that most of the field should play real tight until he's busted and they get ITM. So by keeping him in, he prolongs the bubble time and can abuse it more.

I don't necessary like the size of his raise, unless he have good reads on the limper (this will be a good place to trap, as SS is likely to shove very wide)

[Gogie]

I like it, he's big stack on bubble getting better than 5-1, SB showed no strength, dead money and heads up 5 cards getting good price. SB can't risk calling w/o premium hand. It's pretty risk free.

Without giving away my thoughts just yet, let's talk about the odds. If the BS assumes he can push two other players off their hands after one has already limped and the other has called the all-in, then at best he's getting pot odds of 6.3 to 1. The hand the SS had was probably the best the BS could have hoped for in this situation, making him a 2-1 dog. If the SS has any overpair then the BS is getting slightly worse odds than 6.3 to 1. If either of the other two players in the hand had called the BS (or, more likely, simply pushed) then the BS is putting a significant chunk of his stack at risk, all for what at best is a marginal play. At this level, I don't think the BS was actually thinking all these angles out when he make his "play".

Further discussion?

[Jauron]

I like it, he's big stack on bubble getting better than 5-1, SB showed no strength, dead money and heads up 5 cards getting good price. SB can't risk calling w/o premium hand. It's pretty risk free.

Without giving away my thoughts just yet, let's talk about the odds. If the BS assumes he can push two other players off their hands after one has already limped and the other has called the all-in, then at best he's getting pot odds of 6.3 to 1. The hand the SS had was probably the best the BS could have hoped for in this situation, making him a 2-1 dog. If the SS has any overpair then the BS is getting slightly worse odds than 6.3 to 1. If either of the other two players in the hand had called the BS (or, more likely, simply pushed) then the BS is putting a significant chunk of his stack at risk, all for what at best is a marginal play. At this level, I don't think the BS was actually thinking all these angles out when he make his "play".

Further discussion?

The math is closer than I thought it would be, but still works out ok for us. In this spot it's ok to take worse end of odds for real money.

EP limper has the biggest chance to re-shove but since the SB called he's getting squeezed. If EP shoves we can throw hand away pretty easy. I don't think they are going to make a play against us in this spot, it's a legit hand when they shove most of the time.

[Jernej Zorec]

i like it
he is risking 3k (tho unlikely since ep just limped and sb just made the call which is probably a weak hand) if one of them has a hand,

and when they dont he risked that 400 more chips which he would never fold for anyway to extend the bubble which he as chipleader can further abuse, which probably wouldnt happen if they went to flop 4 way

[Gogie]

Here's what I thought when the hand played out: I figured there was some collusion going on between Rounder63 and senna77. When senna77 pushed that made the pot 2930. Add in Rounder63's "effective" call of 465 chips and the pot becomes 3395, which would have given senna77 a pretty good shot at making the money - he would have been in 6th place and the blinds would have hit the 7th place player before hitting senna77. If senna77 had let Rounder63 know what his hand was before betting was finished, Rounder63 could have decided to take a chance on protecting senna77 by pushing the other two players off the pot with his big raise. If Rounder63 and senna77 had a prearranged agreement to split the winnings or some such thing, then the play by Rounder63 makes sense to me. I'm not so sure I agree with the other rationales that have been put forth, but then again I've always been a bit of a conspiracy theory type of guy .