Crappola Cards in Live Play

[lwestatbus]

After I lost my PokerStars account on Black Friday I've been able to make it to the card room at the local dog track about three times every two months. It is an hour and a half drive round trip, I often have to wait 20-40 minutes for a seat, and my schedule just doesn't give me that many times to get over there. Sometimes the schedule is OK but I'm tired and know I'm not prepared to focus like I need to. So when I DO get to play it is a real investment in time and travel.

The problem I'm finding is on the regular occassions when I'm just not getting playable cards I have to fight HARD to resist playing some real trash just to get in the game. I've made the investment to get to the poker room and I want to take advantage of the opportunity instead of just folding hand after hand but... we all know those sessions when there just isn't anything worth playing. The situation is complicated because the no-fold'em-holdem crowd I usually face ($2/$4 fixed limit with 5-8 players to most flops) makes opening up the hand range reasonable. But hand after hand of Paint-Rag just won't work.

Is anyone else in this situation? Any hints?

[golddog]

If there are 5-8/flop and it's timid pre-flop (i.e., not much raising), you should probably be in most hands anyway; certainly, those with position. You will make your money by a) scooping relatively large pots when you hit and b) being better able to get away from marginal situations post-flop.

I understand what you're saying; when you haven't made a trivial effort to get to the card room, you want action for the effort you have made. Maybe you should look at it as more a night out that's going to cost a few hours and a few bucks instead of serious poker.

You could also turn the problem on its head; if it's a non-trivial effort to get to the card room, how do you make it a trivial effort?

Larry's moving to Vegas!

[lwestatbus]

You could also turn the problem on its head; if it's a non-trivial effort to get to the card room, how do you make it a trivial effort?

Larry's moving to Vegas!

LOL. I wish. Given our circumstances, the geography, and the poker opportunities I'm just stuck with the current situation.

Interesting suggestion about just joining in. I've already done that sort of analysis in terms of opening up my game to include any suited ace, suited one-off connectors, and any pocket pair and play it just as you suggest, cheap flop, bail if it misses, and have the pot to call down draws. I've informally kept track of pots I'd have won if I played my rags and I just don't think that the EV is there, despite what can be some largish pots. And part of my conceit (not supported by results, mind you) is that I am a poker player, not a retired old geezer who just shows up to plunk down the social security check and see what happens.

[HalfSugar]

What is the average input required to see one of these multiway pots? Is it often 5 players for a single bet or is it routinely raised and 3-bet pre but called by 5 players just the same?

[golddog]

I understand what you're saying, Larry. Keep in mind that being a good poker player is not playing only good hands and looking askance at "crazy" players. It's (at least partially) taking advantage of the situation which is offered to you.

As Sugar is heading toward, of course you have to know if there's fear of being raised off. But, if it's a community-type game with little pre-flop action, you should be getting in there when you're late most of the time.

I think it's good that you're tracking what would have happened on hands you've folded. Since you're going to have to go to showdown, that should help you get away from marginal post-flop situations.

Of course, you'll have to learn to smile, rap the table, and say, "good one" when the donkeys come through with some inexplicable non-draw, but I think in this kind of game you need to learn to lose small ones and win big ones.

[lwestatbus]

First, Geno, it is usually a limpfest with little preflop raising and raises don't seem to have ANY effect on most players unless they are truly paying attention. Your phrase, "community game" is very appropriate. Some number of check downs and I am the ONLY person last night who ever check raised (and still got call downs even though I showed monsters every time).

I was able to put in four hours last night and was reminded of something else from what I think was Mason, Miller, and Malmuth's Low Limit Holdem where they advised against playing weak aces because of kicker problems. I stayed with my usual hand ranges but had some more play, though this was partly because we were 6-handed for a long time and the blinds were coming around a lot so I saw a lot of cheap flops. Anyway, I dumped some money chasing when I had a small piece of the flop. (Last night was the "night of no draws coming in" but that was an anomoly. But my medium pairs never made it to 2 pr or trips. My "30% hands", open ended straight draws and 4-flush flops, also did not make their draws which ended up skewing my results.) What this means is that if I play crappola cards I am buying a chance at one of three flops:

1. A monster that is probably pretty stealthy.
2. A small piece of the flop that I will need to chase
3. Nothing, in which case I can bail

#1 is just rare. I NEVER had one last night with a lot of big blind free flops. Yes, we see them and remember them but i don't THINK that I should give them much weight in my analysis.

#2 cost me money last night. It was always correct to see the turn for a small bet (this is fixed limit) but Larry's rule of thumb for these games is that if any card is needed to make a hand one of the six players has it. It was a much tougher decision to see the river. Implied odds made it correct (I was doing the math) but last night it didn't work out. I did make 2 pair twice in this situation but was counterfeited once and the second completed a players inside straight draw around a small pocket pair.

#3 was pretty typical of course and no problem from a decision making point of view.

So the real issue is whether #1 + #2 combine to make it profitable to open up the game even more. For the moment I don't think so. There is a definite psychological "up" though when I get to see a free flop in the big blind. I came to play and I am playing then, for a little bit at least.

In one hand of note I rivered quad sevens against an aggressive player with a full house. To top it off the card room gives away a free entry to a $45 entry/$7,500 guarantee NLHE tourny for quads so I've got that in my pocket.

[lwestatbus]

I'm back to this post because of a notice of a response but it isn't there so I'm claiming another point in the THP Race for Most Spammed Posts. But what the heck, I'm here so I'll update.

I played last week in what is turning out to be a regular Wednesday night game for me, at least this semester. It was another one of those "No cards" night combined with a "Night of no draws" so I dropped $70 in a 2/4 game. (No smirks from those of you that can play ten times that much in a single hand--this is my game.)

Of note to this discussion is that I paid close attention to the number of hands I folded that I would have won. The count was six in about 4 1/2 hours of play. This wasn't a large enough sample size to be statistically significant (I'm teaching graduate statistics this semester and have to start thinking of things like that) but my impressions combined with this absolute measure will have me continuing my current hand ranges at these kinds of games. Another feature of note at this session was that the pots were unusually small. In these limpfest/chase anything games it is typical to see $20-$30 pots with some hitting the $50 range but I'd estimate the average pot at about $15 with the mode at about $12 (there's that stats rearing its head again). I definitely folded some hands because the odds weren't there to chasee.

I like Wednesdays because it is "Cracked Aces Night" and a measure of the unusual nature of this table was that 5/6 pocket aces dealt at my table while I was there (including my own) held up because there weren't enough people limping to get lucky.

I miss online where $2/4 is not the lowest stakes in the house and you have a better chance of getting "real" poker play at these lower stakes.

[golddog]

If you're averaging $25 pots and it costs you $2 to see a flop, you only need to win once every 12.5 hands to be break even. I like those odds.

Of course, it's not exactly that, as on some hands you'll get enough of the flop to continue on, so your average cost will be more than $2, but this is how you should be playing it. Get in cheap, outplay the limpers after the flop by losing small pots and winning big(ger) ones.

I think you're on the right track with your approach, seeing what sort of hands actually have showdown value, as you'll (it sounds) have to show down most every hand.

[lwestatbus]

One of the dominating impressions of these games that I have but haven't mentioned is these no-foldem-hold'em players pulling out another $40 buy in. The dominating cause of loses in these games, including my own, is chases that don't pay out. So while these folks get lucky often enough to keep them in the game (bless their little hearts), this group as a whole dumps a lot of money with their play. The last couple of times I've looked around late in the game to see who was actually ahead and was startled to see that it really wasn't anyone. The rake at this game is pretty high, about $3/pot.

Your math is right on if you consider that you will get out for $2 most of the time but it must also factor in the losses with chases that don't pay off. Even with my intermediate hand selection when I lose it is because I chased and missed my draws. But my hand selection usually gives me shots at big hands.

Since it looks like my Wednesday nights will be pretty regular this semester (except for the two weeks I'll be in Vegas!!!) I'll take the time to do more study on results.

Thanks for all the comments.

[crack]

How much you winning/losing long term?

I'd hope to think you are winning long term and at least winning 1-2Big bets an hour, and if so then you are probably not doing anything wrong.

If not then there are two reasons:

a) rake too high, usually is in limit games, esp at the casino
b) you are not playing as well as you think

The fact that you said that by the end of the night no one really seems to be winning despite a lot of the players dumping their money with bad plays. This would alarm me, because if it is the rake killing you despite playing good then you should probably find another hobby, or move up stakes.

No one btw, just a strategy point has mentioned raising with suited connectors after several limps. I know the aim is to get in cheap, but there certainly isn't any harm in does this every now and again, especially in position. I'd guess a game like that usually goes limp limp limp raise and then they check check check to the raiser. You can build some really nice pots like this and if you don't hit can take the free card.

[lwestatbus]

Crack,

Thanks for the thoughtful post. I am ahead overall in these games and the one BB/hour is about right.

I have actually started taking two techniques out for a test drive, raising speculative hands in position including middle-suited connectors and pocket pairs and also raising my open ended straight draws and flush draws in late position on the flop. It is a coincidence that being forced into this play environment came at the time I decided that I was going to start working on those aspects of my game where there was +EV from less obvious sources, including building pots. One thing that I've noticed is that almost NOBODY recognizes these plays for what they are when you make them. There is a lively play in $1/2 and $2/5 NLHE at this card room and I sort of suspect that the better players (if there are any) are in these games.

The rake is definitely a big factor here. I should know what it is but can't quote it but will look over and see $2-$4 in the drop every pot and there is an additional rake for the bonus payouts.

There will be occassional obvious winners (including me) but a lot of money goes down the rake drop and as I mentioned there are a lot of $40 rebuys coming around.

[HalfSugar]

What is stopping you sitting in the NLHE games Larry? I figure you for a man who plays both styles of HE?

[lwestatbus]

What is stopping you sitting in the NLHE games Larry? I figure you for a man who plays both styles of HE?

I enjoy NL tournys but am just not in a position to watch $100 go down the drain on a single hand and don't have enough experience to get into these games at these stakes. I know I would be playing in fear and that is just no good.

If I had known that Black Friday was coming and what the available games would be at the local card room I would have made a point to start at the micro stakes online and work my way up. But I am just not going to try to learn at these stakes.

[HalfSugar]

Fair enough, although don't over estimate these games. I am fairly sure that at the 1/2 table there will be opening raises of $15-20 and a lot of dumbass play. That confirms that it is a swingy way to make money though and you would need a reasonable disposable bankroll and a cool head to weather the horrors that will inevitably occur.

[crack]

"and also raising my open ended straight draws and flush draws in late position on the flop"

You really should have been doing this anyway. Creates a bigger pot and they may just check the turn to you giving you the option of a cheaper free card rather than calling flop and turn and putting an extra bet in.