Do you like this move?

[odlozilik]

Stage #936770295: Holdem No Limit $1 - 2008-03-20 07:35:31 (ET)

Table: MAYOTTE HWY (Real Money) Seat #4 is the dealer

Seat 4 - BADBEAT197 ($27.50 in chips)
Seat 6 - BURNER6 ($224.40 in chips)
Seat 7 - TOJO113 ($168.93 in chips)
Seat 8 - ODLOZILIK ($203.90 in chips)
Seat 9 - CLOYCORY ($32 in chips)
Seat 1 - PWNAGE235 ($32.90 in chips)
Seat 2 - GMJ13 ($96.09 in chips)
Seat 3 - DKSMITH ($196.55 in chips)
BURNER6 - Posts small blind $0.50
TOJO113 - Posts big blind $1

*** POCKET CARDS ***

Dealt to ODLOZILIK [8c 8s]

ODLOZILIK - Raises $4 to $4
CLOYCORY - Folds
PWNAGE235 - Folds
GMJ13 - Calls $4
DKSMITH - Calls $4
BADBEAT197 - Folds
BURNER6 - Folds
TOJO113 - Calls $3

*** FLOP *** [10s 7h 9s]

TOJO113 - Checks
ODLOZILIK - Bets $10
GMJ13 - Raises $30 to $30
DKSMITH - Calls $30
TOJO113 - Folds
ODLOZILIK - Calls $20

*** TURN *** [10s 7h 9s] [6s]

ODLOZILIK - Checks
GMJ13 - Checks
DKSMITH - Bets $62
ODLOZILIK - All-In(Raise) $169.90 to $169.90

[MrDarling]

No, I don't.

First, by giving a free card you are risking him catching up with a lonely high spade, or by allowing him to fill up for free.
Second, you are turning your hand into a bluff. Your only hope is that he have a set and will feel committed. Other then that I can't see many worse hand calling.

[gumbie]

Fold the flop.

I used to call there like you, then I started 3 betting, then I saw the light.

[odlozilik]

Fold the flop.

I used to call there like you, then I started 3 betting, then I saw the light.

Don't I have a solid odds to call 20 into 82$ pot?

[Ensano]

Fold the flop.

I used to call there like you, then I started 3 betting, then I saw the light.

Don't I have a solid odds to call 20 into 82$ pot?

4:1 to chase a 6 outer?... cause really you don't want to see the 6 or J of spades... really you need almost 8:1

[odlozilik]

4:1 to chase a 6 outer?... cause really you don't want to see the 6 or J of spades... really you need almost 8:1

Yes, but I have solid implied odds if I hit, the pot is pretty committing everybody.

[Ensano]

4:1 to chase a 6 outer?... cause really you don't want to see the 6 or J of spades... really you need almost 8:1

Yes, but I have solid implied odds if I hit, the pot is pretty committing everybody.

but you have to discount the implied odds by the reverse implied odds from when the third spade hits or the board pairs..... not to mention sometimes you're up against KQ..

[odlozilik]

OK, even if we might consider calling the flop as a mistake, it costs me only 20 bucks. But what about the turn? What's the actual probability that someone of them has the made flush?

[Ensano]

even if they don't, a big spade is likely to be out there so why give them a chance to check behind...

[kingetje]

i dont like the flop call either, but after that the turn is fine


check-calling turn is no option as you will be comitted anyway... so a shove is good. BesIDEs, U hav A Srraight floshh dRAws!!!! ZOMDFjSFJFSkldfkml cannot fold that!


although the shitty part is, DKSMITH's line looks the most like a flushdraw then anything else, which kinda sucks for your hand

[Muck]

Well it’s hard to put an exact % to.

Betting patterns. Suggests someone on a flush draw, but this is hard to quantify without knowing how aggressive or intelligent the players are. I’m sure you could find someone who’d play AT like he had the nuts here, likewise someone could get greedy with a made straight and play it too slow ignoring the flush risk.

Style. Have you seen GMJ13 try to trap with a monsters before? Does DKSMITH tend to value bet?

Number of opponents. The more player the more chance someone has it. 4 players saw the flop and had the choice to chase the flush draw if they had it. That’s more then I would like here.

Stakes. Lower stakes player ($5NL - $30NL) seem to love em soote Especially if ones and ace.

Outs. If a spade comes (apart from the 7) will it improve your hand or make his? On a board like that I don’t think 3 of a kind will beat anyone who calls you so the other two 8s are dead.

I’d say you’re behind 60% of the time here. If you’re called 85%.

But if I had to lay money on it, I’m guessing you won it

[Ensano]

But if I had to lay money on it, I’m guessing you won it

of course he won it... otherwise he wouldn't post it..

[Jauron]

I don't think you have good implied odds on the flop, 4 cards to a straight should kill your action. This many people in the pot on the flop makes me want to dump that hand you could already be drawing to a tie and as others have said some of your outs are dirty.

[gumbie]

Don't I have a solid odds to call 20 into 82$ pot?

You have really solid reverse implied odds.

[odlozilik]

even if they don't, a big spade is likely to be out there so why give them a chance to check behind...

I think the player who has raised the flop very probably doesn't have just the high spade alone, he must have some kind of made hand on the flop (or the flush draw or str8 draw), so I didn't think at all he would check behind.