Drawing Hand Favored to Win?

[JDRock]

I'm dealt K - Q . I limp in after the first player makes a 3x big blind raise and the second player calls before me.

3 players and the flop is:

J 10 3

I am latest to act and the one who had bet pre-flop puts in a pot sized bet, the other guy folds.

I quickly count my outs and I realize I've got 21 vs. top-pair. If I'm calculating right, then I've got about a 70% chance of hitting one on either the turn or river. Offset by the small possibility that I'm facing a pocket pair higher than J, I think that still my chances of winning are better than not.

I'm short stacked, so I push all in - which was about 3x the pot at that point. Villan calls. He shows A-J.

Turn and River both brick. Not only am I out of the tournament, but the guy who just won the hand goes off about how poor of a decision it was for me to push. At the time, I thought it was just the spot my short stack was looking for. However, I couldn't get it out of my head that I could've made a better decision if I'd just cold called and gone to the turn.

I thought this was an especially curious scenario with respect to betting. Mathematically at least, I'm favored to win at the point my chips go in. Unlike betting with a made hand, however, I keep thinking that my chances of winning only get worse with time, while with a made hand they only get better. Is this just psychological bias? Should I have played this hand differently?

[Muck]

You were approx 65% favourite.

You moved first so had fold equity in your move too.

I see think you played it aggressive but fine.

But lets I’d like to see what others say. I’m interested if the opinion will be “don’t think about who’s currently ahead because those odds include that fact.â€

[Jernej Zorec]

if u dont push this spot u might as well quit poker

[Jauron]

Easy easy push.

Your odds don't go down with each card, they are exactly the same as when you put the money in to see both. TV Poker has a lot to do with this IMO, they update the odds on the the turn when they got in on flop or preflop, like it's relevant. Even if turn had been brick and money was left you'd be pretty much a coin flip to that hand.

[supafrey]

Yeah this is super standard. In your position it's really easy to rep KJ in the least so a ton of hands are going to be folding to you. Saying that you're 71% to win (or whatever) is very unlikely, btw, because the range of hands that calls here probably crushes your king and queen outs.

[JDRock]

Yeah this is super standard. In your position it's really easy to rep KJ in the least so a ton of hands are going to be folding to you. Saying that you're 71% to win (or whatever) is very unlikely, btw, because the range of hands that calls here probably crushes your king and queen outs.

I understand the fold equity part, but I still think I'm right about counting my K-Q outs.

The only hands that have both K and Q covered are AA, KK, AK and AQ. About 80% of that will fold to a strong bet. That's especially true since those hands can't possibly be drawing to the same flush you are.

There's plenty of hands that have either K or Q covered, but not both, and against those hands the 18 remaining outs still put up better than a 50:50 chance.

That's heads up anyway . . . I hate maths.

[Kemics]

against a set you are about 40% to win. You're even money to AA, and slightly ahead of KK/QQ.

But in this situation i wouldn't count the 6 K/Q's left in the deck as 'true' outs as we're not sure if they will give us the best hand.

As a short stack its never wrong to shove in this spot. Ever. Im still shoving here if i can see his cards and i know he's got JJ.

[JDRock]

against a set you are about 40% to win. You're even money to AA, and slightly ahead of KK/QQ.

But in this situation i wouldn't count the 6 K/Q's left in the deck as 'true' outs as we're not sure if they will give us the best hand.

As a short stack its never wrong to shove in this spot. Ever. Im still shoving here if i can see his cards and i know he's got JJ.

Yeah, I suppose I forgot J-J, 10-10 and 3-3 as covering my K and Q outs. But, I guess it's moot here with both a straight and a flush draw.

Good advice, it's nice be reassured that I didn't blow it.