Flopped a monster....what were the odds of him winning?

[golfey]

5 euro heads up game


** Hand # 2035896601 starting - 2008-06-01 21:23:08
** Heads Up Baker B [Hold 'em] (50.00|100.00 NL - STT) Real Money

meteorit17 sitting in seat 1 with 502.50
Golfey12345 sitting in seat 2 with 1422.50[Dealer]
Golfey12345 posted the small blind - 25.00
meteorit17 posted the big blind - 50.00

** Dealing cards to Golfey12345: K , K
Golfey12345 raised to 100.00
meteorit17 went all-in - 502.50
Golfey12345 called - 552.50
meteorit17 shows: A , 3

** Dealing the flop: J , J , K

** Dealing the turn: Q

** Dealing the river: 10
meteorit17 wins 1105.00 from the main pot

[crack]

pokenum -h kc kd - ah 3s -- jc jh kh
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jc Kh Jh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kc Kd 985 99.49 5 0.51 0 0.00 0.995
3s Ah 5 0.51 985 99.49 0 0.00 0.005

[MrDarling]

It really doesn't matter.

As soon as you learn to look at your odds when most of the money goes in, you'll become much better in poker and will slowly get used to being sucked on.

In this case you were 70% to win when the money got in (PF) which is as good as it can gets in poker, yet you'll still lose 3 out of 10 times.

BTW, we have a bad beat forum.

[golfey]

totally forgot about the bad beat forum

ill learn next time !

[lwestatbus]

I just dished one of these out to a guy (who later turned out to be both solid and friendly) on Saturday. I raised pocket tens UTG in this player's first hand at the table, had two callers, then he reraised me with what turned out to be pocket aces from the cutoff. Small and big blinds folded and the three other players called. The flop came A-9-7 with two hearts (including the ace). Turn gave me a 4-flush and inside straight draw so I called again. I made my flush on the river and he didn't have a heart.

(I also won my biggest ring pot ever the same day--$151 in a 3/6 FL game, also with pocket tens. It turned out I was up against both pocket kings AND pocket aces but I flopped top set. Betting capped preflop, flop, and turn without me having to raise.)

[mudsliptones]

It really doesn't matter.

As soon as you learn to look at your odds when most of the money goes in, you'll become much better in poker and will slowly get used to being sucked on.

In this case you were 70% to win when the money got in (PF) which is as good as it can gets in poker, yet you'll still lose 3 out of 10 times.

BTW, we have a bad beat forum.

how do you calculate those odds? the 70%

[Ensano]

you just know the odds....

pocket pair against one overcard..

ei KK vs Ax is a 70/30 situation...

[odlozilik]

you just know the odds....

pocket pair against one overcard..

ei KK vs Ax is a 70/30 situation...

One easy way to calculate:
number of outs (3)x number of streets remaining(5)x2
3x5x2=30(%)

Of course, that's not absolutely exact, but closed enough to make a decision at the moment.