Folding the nuts

[MrDarling]

A little history between me and villain. Being deep he calls me real lite PF and raised my Cbets few times.

I'm sitting with 225BB villain cover.

I open AQo UTG, villain flats from CO , fish calls from the blind.

I elected to check on [Kc Jd Qs] and it checked around.
Turn is [Td].
I bet villain push. BB fold.

What do you guys think?

[Ryan_j37]

Its a simple math problem. He has to have an A + the flush draw a certain % of the time which im too lazy to work out right now. Knowing pot size and the odds you are getting on a call would be helpful also.

[odlozilik]

Interesting problem. You have to call over 200BB to get 10 back. Well, I am not sure at all villain has the nutflush draw, I have seen such a moves with any ace (and even on complete non flush broadway board, lol!). He just might want to confuse someone to make him fold (or drive away sets, 2 pairs and flush draws, who knows).
But yes, mathematically the call isn't worthy the risk.

[xDiamond_CutteRx]

The chance of getting freerolled is absolutely too great to risk your whole stack for a chop in a small pot. "Nuts" are irrelevant, because all likelihood suggests you have zero wins in the deck and zero equity on all subsequent betting money.

If he is making a move, oh well. The pot can't be that large. This is just one of those situations where the cost of being wrong is so enormous in comparison to the reward of being right.

[miaowmiaowchowface]

I imagine he really isn't pulling a move here, pretty sure the maths makes it bad for u to call. He'd have to respect your game a lot to make this a bluff if you ask me

[Gunslinger]

Bart Hanson talked about this exact scenario in his cash game podcast. He said as opposed to PLO, where it's common to fold the nuts if you have no redraws, this is pretty much the one place in NLHE where you should. Villain at least has an ace, and your stack is way too deep for it to be worth the risk of him free rolling you.

[Jauron]

This is never the non nuts pushing? It would make sense if we knew he had the re-draw but what % of the time is he doing this with 2 pair or a set or a 9 would make calling ok?

[MrDarling]

I think % of him doing it with air is 5% or less.
If we could suspect he's doing it with a naked FD 10% of the times, then calling is actually break even.

I'm a shamed to admit that in the heat of the battle I didn't even consider the FD.
Calling this cost me around $83 (in the long run) luckily, I 'sucked out' and we chopped.

I've never came across this kind of situation, so I thought pointing it out. My biggest mistake was not even thinking about it before calling.

[miaowmiaowchowface]

I think % of him doing it with air is 5% or less.
If we could suspect he's doing it with a naked FD 10% of the times, then calling is actually break even.

I'm a shamed to admit that in the heat of the battle I didn't even consider the FD.
Calling this cost me around $83 (in the long run) luckily, I 'sucked out' and we chopped.

I've never came across this kind of situation, so I thought pointing it out. My biggest mistake was not even thinking about it before calling.

My first experience of this was in a live 2-5 game. The board was a 4straight (2 hearts), the UTG bet out 10$ into like a 40$ pot, some guy raised to 40$, UTG shoves for about 1200$ (!) and the guy snapcalls his stack of roughly the same size. The river hit the redraw, and he stacked him for a few BI.

Made me think too, I'd have probably snapcalled as well... now I'm wiser...