FPS

[MrDarling]

Here a semy interesting hand I played yesterday.
villain is an aggressive reg though he doesn't 3B much PF.

Answer this :
1. why do I bet/call the turn.
2. why do I lead the river.
3. what do I think I would have done if the river was a 2h

Full Tilt Poker Game #9459111208: Table Harris (6 max) - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 17:03:25 ET - 2008/12/12
Seat 1: kamehameha1 ($406)
Seat 2: Jade RedStone ($478)
Seat 3: la1969 ($420.45), is sitting out
Seat 4: Quiness ($855.40)
Seat 5: Umpirestriker2 ($400)
Seat 6: danemw ($172)
Umpirestriker2 posts the small blind of $2
danemw posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Jade RedStone [Ts 8s]
kamehameha1 folds
Jade RedStone raises to $14
Quiness calls $14
Umpirestriker2 adds $2
Umpirestriker2 folds
danemw folds
*** FLOP *** [Qs Qh Kd]
Jade RedStone bets $28
Quiness calls $28
*** TURN *** [Qs Qh Kd] [Ks]
Jade RedStone has 15 seconds left to act
Jade RedStone bets $49
Quiness has 15 seconds left to act
Quiness raises to $98
Jade RedStone has 15 seconds left to act
Jade RedStone calls $49
*** RIVER *** [Qs Qh Kd Ks] [4s]
Jade RedStone bets $99

[jimmer]

To me, this whole hand doesn’t make sense. The key issue I have is understanding why this guy (who we know is aggressive), would call you on the flop and only make a small raise on the turn, unless he had a Queen.

I’ve been thinking about the whole scenario since about an hour after you first posted it and am still not convinced I am any closer to resolving your questions. I don’t think I am any further forward understanding your thought process either.

However here are my thoughts;

The key to understanding this hand is knowing the villain is aggressive. From this we can assume he doesn’t have a premium hand pf otherwise he would re-raise. For this reason alone we can assume he is not holding pocket Aces to Tens or AK, AQ and may be even KQ. This leaves us with pocket nines and below, plus AJ, AT, QJ, JT and may be KJ or QT. So, pf he simply calls.

On the flop you bet and he calls. He could be slow playing you, so we need to be careful, but if he has a speculative hand he would probably raise to ask the question ‘How good is your hand’. So, by flat calling you preflop and now on the flop, I’m now thinking he's NOT holding a King, and probably holding AJ, AT JT or low pocket pair.

The turn is where my whole thought process screws me up. He could still have a Queen. Calling your bet on the flop and making a small raise on the turn kinda indicates this. If he is holding a King, I think he would still raise you on the flop. Therefore I think we could rule this out. Other hands that still make sense are Ax and JT.

So, does the spade on the river give you the winning hand? I'm unsure, but you still need to bet just in case he was holding Ax or JT. If he is holding Ax, he may still call you.

If he raises big, I'm wondering if you've been caught with your pants down.

The major issues i have with this hand is;
1. You calling his raise on the turn.
2. Him (who is usually aggressive) playing pretty passive.

1. why do I bet/call the turn.

No idea.

2. why do I lead the river.

As explained.

3. what do I think I would have done if the river was a 2h

I'm finding it difficult to understand if this is a random card you've thrown into the mix, or whether it actually has a relevance on the outcome.

Am I remotely close on any of my thoughts?

[odlozilik]

You probably bet/call the turn and lead the river to represent trapping with K to make villain fold the queen. And, you would probably lead the river no matter which card comes. But I think there is probably no hand villain calls the river which you beat, unless he is sick enough to call with Ax.

[miaowmiaowchowface]

flop cbet is standard. If we establish a range for him on the turn it wouldnt make much sense for him to raise a Q, and u haven't said anything about any supersick historyments so ya, no Q. :. he polarizes his range to air and KJs if he plays that, KQ KA but those r pretty unlikely. sooooo u can call and rep a K because it's pretty unlikely he has one himself and take the pot away on a later street aka the river. if u raise again he might get carried away and it's gonna be a lot more expensive to bluff.

I can't understand y u lead the river , do u really think he'll call with worse? if u don't have a read hes a station i c/c. if the rivers a non T non flush bet

[kingetje]

The turn is where my whole thought process screws me up. He could still have a Queen. Calling your bet on the flop and making a small raise on the turn kinda indicates this. If he is holding a King, I think he would still raise you on the flop. Therefore I think we could rule this out. Other hands that still make sense are Ax and JT.

Jimmer. no offense, but i think this post kind of shows that you might be thinking in a wrong way

calling the flop and raising the turn with a Q is pretty terrible and the exact opposite of how it probably should be played (assuming no real history between players). as is raising a K on the flop usually


just ask yourself what raising the turn with a Q would actually accomplish??? what will our opponent continue with there? i cant think of anything but a Kx hand. (assuming hes not a total nutjob whose gonna chase a flush/straight hdraw on a double paired board


anyway, not gonna comment on this hand cause its all a bit too ridiculous. you prolly bet river small to induce a bluff raise i guess

[MrDarling]

This hand is all about ranges.

PF villain range is pretty wide : 22+, A7s+,AT,J9s+ etc..
On the flop villain range is almost as wide. Floating is in.
On the turn he now polarizes his range to Kx or air.
He might do it with A high but that will be pretty bad.

When the turn doubled pair the board my hand is irrelevant. I'm not betting my FD as I don't expect him to be able to pay with anything that I beat.
My plan was to call and lead small any river. By doing this I'm repping mostly a Qx, Kx and sometimes AA (if I was real bad)

This is a pretty profitable bluff, as I'm betting 99 to win over $280.

There is of course merit to c/c the river once I hit my flush, but I don't have enough history with villain that I'm willing to call a pot bet. My plan here is to bet/fold. Though that said, c/c with a flush there will look really fish and will be good for future meta game implication. (its always good to look fishy to people you play with every day)

...but if he has a speculative hand he would probably raise to ask the question ‘How good is your hand’

Raising for information is a pretty bad play when playing only 100BB.
Min raising the turn with a Q (trying to get to a cheap SD) is also pretty bad.
In poker you are making money by NOT allowing your opponent to play perfectly against you.

[jimmer]

Jimmer. no offense, but i think this post kind of shows that you might be thinking in a wrong way

No offense taken Kingetje.

As I've already suggested, this hand doesn't make sense to me, so there was a good chance I was looking at this hand all wrong. It's just another indication that my game is a long way from where I want to be.

[Jauron]

How often does he have to fold turn or not hold Kx on river to make this play profitable taking into account both turn bet, turn call and river bluff?

Was original turn bet because we like the board pairing twice to fire again or we just have to fire more often on turn vs aggressive player who probably floats fair amount of time? I find I get mixed results when I bet turn with our hand, and I get raised too often and have to fold. I can't decide if I'm pissing money away.

At this level do you often have to battle against floaters who raise your turn bet? I know I'd struggle with that...

[miaowmiaowchowface]

This hand is all about ranges.

PF villain range is pretty wide : 22+, A7s+,AT,J9s+ etc..
On the flop villain range is almost as wide. Floating is in.
On the turn he now polarizes his range to Kx or air.
He might do it with A high but that will be pretty bad.

When the turn doubled pair the board my hand is irrelevant. I'm not betting my FD as I don't expect him to be able to pay with anything that I beat.
My plan was to call and lead small any river. By doing this I'm repping mostly a Qx, Kx and sometimes AA (if I was real bad)

This is a pretty profitable bluff, as I'm betting 99 to win over $280.

There is of course merit to c/c the river once I hit my flush, but I don't have enough history with villain that I'm willing to call a pot bet. My plan here is to bet/fold. Though that said, c/c with a flush there will look really fish and will be good for future meta game implication. (its always good to look fishy to people you play with every day)

...but if he has a speculative hand he would probably raise to ask the question ‘How good is your hand’

Raising for information is a pretty bad play when playing only 100BB.
Min raising the turn with a Q (trying to get to a cheap SD) is also pretty bad.
In poker you are making money by NOT allowing your opponent to play perfectly against you.

I can't understand why you need to bluff here when u have really good SD value vs a polarized range. If he raises u again its harder 2 call than if he potbets, if he pots it u can snap

[Kemics]

i suppose your bet on the river looks like a small value bet from a K trying to extract value from a Q.

He's not raising the river with anything other than a K and if he does you can insta-muck and its over.

On the flip side if he's a good enough player he might see your river bet as a value bet and try to save himself a few chips.

I guess its a really good spot for this sort of bluff because this is exactly how the hand would play out if Mr.D is holding a King here. So its a very believable story. Only problem is your laying him some nice odds to call down. I think this hand depends of how good our villian is.

Im assuming our hand despite catching the flush is still really a bluff?

[kingetje]

On the flip side if he's a good enough player he might see your river bet as a weak looking blockbet and raise it with air like he did on the turn

i mean if he raised the turn as a bluff, surely he might be capable of raising a river bet. especially this tiny sized weak looking one

[miaowmiaowchowface]

On the flip side if he's a good enough player he might see your river bet as a weak looking blockbet and raise it with air like he did on the turn

i mean if he raised the turn as a bluff, surely he might be capable of raising a river bet. especially this tiny sized weak looking one

i was going to say this

[MrDarling]

I can't understand why you need to bluff here when u have really good SD value vs a polarized range. If he raises u again its harder 2 call than if he potbets, if he pots it u can snap

I think I touched about it here :

There is of course merit to c/c the river once I hit my flush, but I don't have enough history with villain that I'm willing to call a pot bet. My plan here is to bet/fold. Though that said, c/c with a flush there will look really fish and will be good for future meta game implication. (its always good to look fishy to people you play with every day)

However, thinking about it more, I don't think we can ever c/c here. Not at this level. Not without history.

when I bet/call this turn I'm never going to c/f any river. What can I possibly have that will play like that? villain will have to be really spewy to bet the river with anything that I beat.
Can he really expect me to fold a Qx hand here often enough for his bluff to work? I don't think we're deep enough for this. Same go for raising the block bet. first I can easily have a K and play it like that. And second, I can easily have a Q and NOT fold to the raise.

[MrDarling]

How often does he have to fold turn or not hold Kx on river to make this play profitable taking into account both turn bet, turn call and river bluff?

Well, we bet a little over half pot on the turn, so it have to succeed a little over 1 in 3 times to break even. When the turn double pair, its just so hard for villain to have any of it due to card removal. (ie, there are just not that many K or Q left in the deck) there are tons of hands that will float this flop (any pair, A high with a gutter, OESD etc...)
However, in this case, since villain is decent and his unlikely to have an over pair he can fold to a river shove (if the board was 2233 you might be able to get someone to fold 66) so a river bet here is a suicide and will not be profitable. There is a chance villain is decent enough to call with A high and check behind river, which might give us a chance to win if we hit the flush (which again, we can't really bet for value)

Was original turn bet because we like the board pairing twice to fire again or we just have to fire more often on turn vs aggressive player who probably floats fair amount of time? I find I get mixed results when I bet turn with our hand, and I get raised too often and have to fold. I can't decide if I'm pissing money away.

At this level do you often have to battle against floaters who raise your turn bet? I know I'd struggle with that...

People do float a lot, but often they just hope you'll give up on the turn. Raising the turn with air OFTEN is really not that profitable (though it is sexy).

At this level people understand the power of position more so its really hard to play OOP.
Imagine we had AA on this hand, or even AQ. as funny as it seems, I'd probably end of tossing AA away here.

btw, villain play is also good. My small turn bet could be a lot of stuff and his min raise is very profitable because I really can't continue without a K or a Q, and even if I do have a Q, how much heat can I take? Which is exactly what made me call his turn bet.
When I bet this turn (especially this size) my range is polarized to nuts/2nd nuts or air (though playing a Q like that is pretty bad), so if he's going to raise for value his raise should be bigger because if I can call, I'll call a bigger raise. If villain was a fish, I will insta fold the turn with AA and should probably insta fold AQ there also if I played it that way.

[miaowmiaowchowface]

i dont think he'll think ur a fish, he'll think ur a good reg if anything. Unless ur open limping and making retarded plays he won't think ur a fish, and even if he thinks u suck, this isn't higher stakes where a bad reg is a goldmine, theres bigger fish to fry for these grinder types imo