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Help me with a Easy Odds Q ,

Pot odds questions, outs calculations, hand probabilities
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5 posts • Page 1 of 1

Help me with a Easy Odds Q ,

Postby RhythmA » Fri Mar 25, 2005 2:42 pm GMT

OK,
This might be a easy one ...
What pot odds must you be getting to Call no matter what 2 cards you are holding preflop? exclude any special conditions as in being near the $ or short stacked or v/s tight or weak ,strong or loose players.
Just raw #'s .. So mabe the Q is what is the biggest dog i can be to another hand Preflop..
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Postby Iron Butt » Fri Mar 25, 2005 4:57 pm GMT

Random non-connecting, non-suited cards such as 27o against an overpair in your suits is about 11% to win, call it 8 to 1 against.

Throw in 5 other playable hands to create the kind of pot odds you want and let's say you're in the BB and there's been one raise; now there's 11 bets in the pot... but you've fallen to about 7%, call it 13:1 against.

Throw 4 more random maniacs in there... Hey, you got there! 19 bets in the pot, you're almost 5%, call it 19:1 as long as none of your outs have been taken and all 9 opponents make it 2 bets.

But let's look at some more reasonable hands at that table. Medium suited connectors or a weak suited ace go about 11%=8:1, AKs is 14%=7:1, QQ goes 20%=4:1. And of course all those hands do much better in a more likely situation, say 5 or fewer in the pot.

Suffice to say that that 27o is never really a good idea.
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Postby RhythmA » Fri Mar 25, 2005 6:09 pm GMT

this all started from a hand in a low limit 2 table NL SnG
I Raised 1st in on the Button w/ JJ , SB goes all in , BB also pushes in for about another 200 ... was getting about 5 & 1/2 to 1 .. which would have been about 55% of my stack
.. figuring I was beat or at best v/s 2 players w/ overs .. I folded
But would have Flopped a Set .. which is about 8-1 correct ?
So if i was getting 8-1 ...I would have had break even EV ?

-Thanks for any input
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Postby suitedaces84 » Fri Mar 25, 2005 7:15 pm GMT

RhythmA wrote:But would have Flopped a Set .. which is about 8-1 correct ?


Yes

RhythmA wrote:So if i was getting 8-1 ...I would have had break even EV ?


Depends, if you're up against a bigger pair, then not quite. Not only would you have to hit your trips, but he would have to not hit his, but over the course of the 5 cards it comes out to about 8-1.

Another note: an SnG is not a ring game. Numbers are much less applicable to SnGs and MTTs. Even if you were getting 8:1 preflop you should probably lay it down anyway.
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Postby Iron Butt » Fri Mar 25, 2005 7:32 pm GMT

Oh, well that's a lot different than the worst dog you can be like you asked LOL. JJ against AK and QQ you're 17%=5:1. Substitute TT for JJ and you're 43%=1.1:1 or so and the favorite.

In a SnG, with a fairly good stack sounds like, with a bet that requires you to risk half your stack plus trebling a short stack if you lose... yeah I let them slug it out. You can't worry about the times you "woulda" flopped a set LOL.
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