Help with some quad odds please

[londongeeza]

I am trying to find the odds of hitting quads in texas hold em in two consecutive hands.

It was a 6 player limit game and I was delt a pair in both hands and hit a set on the flop and quads on the turn in both hands. I was second to act on the flop first hand and first on the second hand.

I want to produce a little frame with both quads ( 4's then 9's) in it for my new office and want to add the odds against this happening. Can someone please help as I have been trawling around the poker forums for a couple of weeks without finding the answer.

Cheers, Steve - London UK

[crack]

73572/1

According to this calculator I found.

http://www.ohrt.com/odds/index.php

[fiezk]

You have to ask the right question. If you at a certain point ask: What are the odds of me getting a pocket pair and flopping quads in exactly the next two hands, the odds are (approx): 1/(16*417*16*417) ~ one in 45 million.

However, if you play enough poker you will inevitably flop quads once in a while. Maybe you have played enough hands to be likely to have flopped quads ten times. Then the chances of ever flopping quads twice in a row with a pp is approx: (1-1/(16*416))^10, or about 1/500.

Still quite unlikely, but if you consider that there are many unlikely situations that may be worthy of hanging on the wall in your office (flopping a royal, getting two straight flushes in a short period of time, etc.) the odds diminishes further.

I didn't mean to say that flopping quads twice in a row isn't unusual, but there is simply no simple answer to your question.

edit: I now see that you didn't flop them. This makes it less 'unusual', obviously, but the same principle applies

[crack]

Well, I got the odds wrong after reading this again. I don't have enough time to work this out myself and wouldn't really know where to start, but according to this calculator....

To flop quads and then the very next hand to flop a set and turn quads is:

Odds: 319896.632757517
Percentage: 0.000312600
Probability: 0.000003126

You may want this verified or in fact, not bother doing it in the first place.

[LeeG]

I've flopped quads twice in under 20 min. of live play.

It was an amazing hour - 2 flopped quads, 4 more flopped sets and a flopped straight. When the poker gods smile, sometimes they grin.