Hero Call - Good Or Bad Play?

[Sentinel]

MTT for $28k package.

Some background info first.

Villain had already doubled me up by calling my TPTK on a board of 5 K 7 all in with K10o. We both now had even stacks circa 5k (average was under 2k).

On another hand, I flopped 555 on a 5 6 4 rainbow. Villain bet big, I moved all in and he called showing Q3o. This would have given me the chip lead but he rivered me with a 7 to chop the pot for a 7 high straight. He said Q3 was his fave hand, was dealt it a few times afterwards and won by betting aggressively with it, then showing his bluff.

Then he was pushing and betting all over the place, abusing a very weak player called DanishBlue (who saw his 15k stack go down to 6k) and he went up to 15k. Whilst winning pot after pot against DB, he freely admitted to holding nothing and then came the decisive hand.

By this point, I had 7.5k (average was 2.5k) and I held 33 and called the 400bb. He raised and I called as I stood a very good chance of getting his stack. Flop came 477, I checked and he went all in for 16k. This stunk to high heaven. Any 4 and he's scared of my having an overpair and any 7 or over pair and he's trapping. I put him on a very bad bluff and choose to call. He flips A6o - I was right - but like our last match up, he spike the river for a 6.

I know I was very unlucky, both times we were all in, and I also know I was a big favourite with just one card to come in this last hand. My question is did I make a good play? I think I did, despite the risk of the board pairing, or seeing an A or a 6, but there are arguments for folding as well as calling.

After that win he shot straight to the top of the leaderboard but it was very heartwarming to see him bust outin about 100th.

[Ensano]

i think it was a good call... very easy for a player like that to be bluffing a missed pot...


but i do have to mention i bust out of tourneys a lot

[odlozilik]

Well, this is about the coinflip. Even if you are right and villain has an air, he still has 41.8% to outdraw you (on condition that he doesn't hold the 2 and that 2 doesn't come on the turn). So, I would think twice to call all my stack here.

[MrDarling]

Well, this is about the coinflip. Even if you are right and villain has an air, he still has 41.8% to outdraw you

just curious, where did you get this number from?

[odlozilik]

Flop: 9 outs
Turn: 12 outs

Cards in the deck: 45

To hit the turn: 9/45=0.2

To hit the river: 12/44=0.2727....

To hit either the turn or river: 1-((1-0.2)*(1-0.2727..))=0.418181...

As I have already mentioned, this is actually not completely correct for the case 2 comes on the turn, and in that case the number of outs for the river remains 9. I would have to think a little bit longer to count this correction.

[Sentinel]

odlozilik, I have no idea what you are talking about.

The hand in question is the 477 flop, with him holding A6. The 2 would be of no use. I gave him 8 outs (A, 6, 4) for him to be a 2:1 dog.

As for the hand with the str8, which I think is what you are talking about, you talk about the 2 dropping on the turn but the money went in on the flop and I can't legislate for him holding a 3. He was a very loose player betting with nothing for the most part and bullying weaker players.

I don't see how you can even talk about the 2 being a risk and that getting my money in was a coin flip. In that hand, I knew I was way ahead (2:1 over an OES) and wasn't prepared to slow play with the flop as it was, hence my reraise all in.

But neither hand gave him 9 outs nor was there mention of a turn card to give him 12 outs.

[odlozilik]

Sentinel, ok, let's speak again (about the hand 2).

I am counting on villain holding ANY 2 overcards to you, which didn't hit ANYTHING on the flop. So:
Villain's outs on the flop (let's suppose now he holds A6, as he really holds):
A - 3 outs
6 - 3 outs
4 - 3 outs
alltogether 9 outs
(how did you count 8 outs?)

Turn (if not hit any out here):
A - 3 outs
6 - 3 outs
4 - 3 outs
X - 3 outs

X - any card except 2 (and, actually 3 and 7 too) which was dealt on the turn. Because, if that card comes on the river again, the board is paired twice, your 3's are counterfeited and you are outkicked. If 2 comes on the turn and river, your 3's hold up.

Well, I have counted a little bit more. Because of the possibilities for the turn to be dealt 2,3 or 7, the average number of outs for the river is a little bit lower:

9+(36/44)*3=11.45
(I have discounted 4 two's, 2 three's and 2 seven's)

11.45/44=0.26
So:

P=1-((1-0.2)*(1-0.26))=0.408

There is still 1 very special case of runner runner 7:
(2/45)*(1/44)=0.001
So, final probability for being outdrawn with any 2 overcards is 40.9%.

(Am I crazy for counting this? I like math sometimes )

Well, I have said it was a coinflip because no matter how much the villain bluffs all the time, there is always certain probability he occasionally has the hand. If we count he can have any 2 cards, there is 20.35% prob. he has 4 or 7 plus prob. he has the pocket pair.

P.S.: You didn't mention, how much villain raised pf in hand 2.

[Sentinel]

Hiya Od,

For some reason I was counting 2 remaining 4s and not 3, so yeah, 9 outs. I now see your 12 outs on the turn as well.

In terms of runner runner, this is something that has intrigued me. How do you calculate the odds of that in a simple way and quickly when faced with a ticking timer?


In hand 2, the hand that I made the post about, villain min raised to 1000. To call meant putting 13% of my chips in but I had already committed 400 and so was willing to go the extra 600. It was a horrible spot as I knew just how marginal my 3s yet the raise was so small to just throw the cards away.

[Ensano]

to calculate the odds of 2 things HAVING to happen you just multiply the odds of each together..

odds of runner runner straight..

you AQ board... K38 villian shows AA

you need either a J or T on turn so 8 outs or 8/47

turn T now you have 4 outs or 4/46

(8/47)*(4/46)=
.170212766*.086956522=
.01480111=
1.48%


or same board but to get runner runner Qs

(3/47)*(2/46)=
.063829787*.043478261=
.002775208=
.277%

[Sentinel]

Thx but my brain doesn't work that fast to do the division and then the muliplying. Is there a simpler way like the "(outs x 2) + 1" format or the rule of 4 and 2?

[Ensano]

Thx but my brain doesn't work that fast to do the division and then the muliplying. Is there a simpler way like the "(outs x 2) + 1" format or the rule of 4 and 2?

well i just kinda did the odds for runner runner straight and rr set...

rr flush is

(10/47)*(9/46)=
.212765957*.195652174=
.041628122=
4.16%


so just remember those numbers...
rr FD is the equivalent of 2 outs.. (4.16%)
rr SD is like 2/3 of an out and (1.48%)
rr set is like 1/10 of an out (0.28%)

[Sentinel]

So you did, thx.

[Jauron]

I usually count runner runner as half an out when doing the 4/2 thing. Friend told me Barry or maybe Harrington's book suggested that to keep it simple.