Holy cats!! odds please

[Tulie66]

5 dollar sit and go first hand.

Dealt AK H , raised to me to 300 so I go in...then it gets raised to all in, another sees him, first raiser calls..I call too. (yes I know bad bad bad) anyhow...we all flip up and guess what..all four of us have ace king suited...ended up flushing to the club guy so I was out first hand...can't say that has ever happened to me before..the out on first hand but..I sure have never seen four people with ace king suited all at once before. Wondering to you math people..what are the odds of that happening?

[campbeas]

wow that is a little nuts.

I'm definetly not calculating that for you.
I have the know how, but I just finished my last exam and I refuse to do any more work until january.....sorry.

[Dave B]

I saw something similar once-deep into a multi I get AK. I raise, someone reraises, small stack goes all in, I go all in, person that reraises me waits forever and types-I cant believe I am laying down AK but I know one of you has AA or KK. No, 3 of us had AK and split the pot. I dont know for sure if he had AK or was blowing smoke, but I he didnt have a real reason to lie at that point.

[redd38]

I had K9o and hit 2 pair on the turn. I ended up folding (someone had a flush) but at showdown 2 other people showed K9o. I couldn't believe it, I was also proud that I was the only one of the three of us that didn't pay off the flush.

[cayouche]

Lets give it a try.

Odds getting an A or K, 2/13.
Odds getting the matching card, 1/51.
Odds of getting AK suited, 2/663.

So I would say, 16/193220905761 = 1/12076306610.0625 = 0.0000000000828067...% = 8.28067e-11 %.

However, if you say that since you got AK, there's only 3 aces and kings left, odds would be a bit lower .

1st guy: 1/331.5
2nd guy: 1/408.33...
3rd guy: 1/564
4th guy: 1/1035

So, altogether: 1/79016505750 = 1.26556e-11 %

...

So... 1.26556e-11 % ...final answer...

[Tulie66]

wow

[campbeas]

Well...there are afew things wrong here:

first off for a proper analysis you have to use statistical analysis which in this case means using permutations and combinations. In paticular combinations.

Secondly the odds change drasticallly as more players are added to the table. And change drastically depending on how you account for the cards being delt. ie one by one to ten people would have different odds then 2 by 2 to 4 people.

f*ck I just convinced myself to do it.
Doing 10 people one card at a tiem is TIME CONSUMING as there are a shit load of calculations to do. So I'll do it for 4 people playing and all 4 of them getting AK suited.

The chances of drawing AK suited from a deck is 1/1326, as there are 1326 combinations of 2 cards that can be drawn from a deck of 52 different cards. Where each combination has the same probability of being drawn.

Now, given that I have Ak suited....what are the chances that a second person has AK suited. Well there are now 50 cards in the deck the chances of drawing AK suited from that deck is 1/1225 where there are 1225 possible combinations of down cards left in the deck.

1/1326 * 1/1225 = 1/1624350

probability that 3 people get AK suited.
48 cards left leaving 1128 possible combinations of down cards.
1/1624350 * 1/1128 = 1/1832266800

4 people
46 cards left leaving 1035 possible combinations of down cards left
1/1832266800 * 1/1035 = 1/1896396138000

SOOOOO
in a 4 person game the odds of everyone having AK suited down cards is.....5.2731x10-13 percent.

Now with more people this probablility would increase somewhat as more cards are in play reducing the size of the deck. The increase in probability would also change based on which seat at the table you are talking about. As there would be less and less cards in the deck as you delt around the table.

[campbeas]

in retrospect the other guys 10 second calculation was pretty f*cking close

nice estimate

[cayouche]

The chances of drawing AK suited from a deck is 1/1326, as there are 1326 combinations of 2 cards that can be drawn from a deck of 52 different cards. Where each combination has the same probability of being drawn.

Wrong.

I have a deck of 52 cards. The odds of getting an ace or king are 8 in 52. There's 51 cards left, therefore, the odds of getting your matching card is 1 in 51. So, 8/52 x 1/51 = 8/2652 or 1/331.5

However, I understand how you calculated your odds. There's indeed 1326 possible 2 card combinations, but 4 different suits, hence 4/1326 or 1/331.5

Same applies to the second, third and fourth guy.

#2) 1 in 1225, but with 3 suits left, 1 in 408.33
#3) 1 in 1128, but with 2 suits left, 1 in 564
#4) 1 in 1035 with 1 suit left, so 1 in 1035.

[campbeas]

Doing 10 people one card at a tiem is TIME CONSUMING as there are a shit load of calculations to do. So I'll do it for 4 people playing and all 4 of them getting AK suited.

and I did use combinations.

Your made up equation.....right or wrong gives a probablility of 6.697x10-6

which.....least u to the exact same conclusion as everyone else.....

All things concidered......the odds of that happening VERY low.

[Tulie66]

LOL thank you guys for working it out. I doubt I will ever see anything like that again.

[campbeas]

Indeed

[cayouche]

All things concidered......the odds of that happening VERY low.

Indeed!!

[gol4pro]

You guys are all wrong. You have to use combinations becuase it's at a 10 person table.

Ok. 10c4(4c1)(1c1)(3c1)(1c1)(2c1)(1c1)(1c1)/52c8

I'm not going to multiply it all out, but it's pretty damn low.

[campbeas]

Doing 10 people one card at a tiem is TIME CONSUMING as there are a shit load of calculations to do. So I'll do it for 4 people playing and all 4 of them getting AK suited.

and I did use combinations.

Your made up equation.....right or wrong gives a probablility of 6.697x10-6

which.....leads u to the exact same conclusion as everyone else.....

All things concidered......the odds of that happening VERY low.

.