Line check: Call flop or reraise/push?

[ErinJeff]

Given the effective stack size, 2 cards to come, and Villain's stats (6/0/1 over 33) this is a flop push, right? I'm 60/40 against a range of 22+,AQs+,AKo with my OESD + nut flush draw. At worst he has a set, and no way a 6% VPIP plays Q9 from mp this way?

I'm looking for a flaw in this logic. Would the experts just call and reevaluate the turn? If the turn bricks, check/call a push as I'd be calling ~$5 into $22?

POKERSTARS GAME #15745034594: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.10/$0.25) - 2008/03/04 - 19:50:28 (ET)
Table 'Vela V' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: Master Stoll ($21.75 in chips)
Seat 2: Triptrailz ($32.55 in chips)
Seat 3: sandmandxp ($15.25 in chips)
Seat 4: cartman1887 ($158.45 in chips)
Seat 5: BrunoKernen ($14.40 in chips)
Seat 6: ErinJeff ($24.95 in chips)
Seat 7: FRESHelNiño ($28.75 in chips)
Seat 8: klausiberlin ($9.75 in chips)
Seat 9: BubbaJoeAA ($2.95 in chips)
FRESHelNiño: posts small blind $0.10
klausiberlin: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ErinJeff [9s As]
BubbaJoeAA: folds
Master Stoll: folds
Triptrailz: calls $0.25
sandmandxp: calls $0.25
cartman1887: folds
BrunoKernen: folds
ErinJeff: raises $1.25 to $1.50
FRESHelNiño: calls $1.40
klausiberlin: folds
Triptrailz: folds
sandmandxp: calls $1.25
*** FLOP *** [Js Ts 8h]
FRESHelNiño: checks
sandmandxp: checks
ErinJeff: bets $3.50
FRESHelNiño: folds
sandmandxp: raises $5 to $8.50 ($5.25 behind)
HERO ?

[Felting]

I like the flop bet, we have lots of outs and are giving ourselves a 2nd way to win.

Once he reraises I think we have to call. getting good odds to chase are draws. I really don't think it will matter if you push him all in on the flop or wait for him to put it in on the turn. He's pot committed with the raise and we'll be priced in for a call on the turn.

[zinn0]

I like getting it in here, mainly because he has so little behind.

[xDiamond_CutteRx]

Get it in here, even though you probably have no fold equity. You likely have an equity edge anyway (you are ahead of KK here).

[Jauron]

He is never folding and I'm still pushing.


Your range is a little funky, you really put 22+ in there like he ever check raises you with a pair lower than 88? AK or AQ? That doesn't make any sense unless he was sleeping during those 31 hands.

Actualy I'm interested in the numbers for his real range 88+ and AJ, my guess is we are still even money.

[ErinJeff]

With your range Jauron (88+,AJ), the numbers are 52 Hero/48 Villain and with a tighter set/OESD range (88-JJ) we are 43/57.

My initial range estimates were more about what a 6/0 player limp-calls preflop with if they're getting tricky with a premium hand (QQ+, maybe AK) and to give him all the set outs. Your point postflop is true and I didn't express myself very well in the OP.

[gumbie]

You really shouldn't be thinking about this hand at all.

[ErinJeff]

My apologies, Gumbie, for fouling your internets with drivel.

I chose the reraise-push route, loved the turn and hated the river. The point of this post was to see if there was a difference of opinion about when it's better to get all the chips in. The answer I got was that it doesn't really matter.

Thanks for the advice.

POKERSTARS GAME #15745034594: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.10/$0.25) - 2008/03/04 - 19:50:28 (ET)
Table 'Vela V' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: Master Stoll ($21.75 in chips)
Seat 2: Triptrailz ($32.55 in chips)
Seat 3: sandmandxp ($15.25 in chips)
Seat 4: cartman1887 ($158.45 in chips)
Seat 5: BrunoKernen ($14.40 in chips)
Seat 6: ErinJeff ($24.95 in chips)
Seat 7: FRESHelNiño ($28.75 in chips)
Seat 8: klausiberlin ($9.75 in chips)
Seat 9: BubbaJoeAA ($2.95 in chips)
FRESHelNiño: posts small blind $0.10
klausiberlin: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ErinJeff [9s As]
BubbaJoeAA: folds
Master Stoll: folds
Triptrailz: calls $0.25
sandmandxp: calls $0.25
cartman1887: folds
BrunoKernen: folds
ErinJeff: raises $1.25 to $1.50
FRESHelNiño: calls $1.40
klausiberlin: folds
Triptrailz: folds
sandmandxp: calls $1.25
*** FLOP *** [Js Ts 8h]
FRESHelNiño: checks
sandmandxp: checks
ErinJeff: bets $3.50
FRESHelNiño: folds
sandmandxp: raises $5 to $8.50
ErinJeff: raises $5.50 to $14
sandmandxp: calls $5.25 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [Js Ts 8h] [5s]
*** RIVER *** [Js Ts 8h 5s] [5d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
sandmandxp: shows [8d 8s] (a full house, Eights full of Fives)
ErinJeff: shows [9s As] (a flush, Ace high)
sandmandxp collected $30.90 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $32.50 | Rake $1.60
Board [Js Ts 8h 5s 5d]
Seat 1: Master Stoll folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Triptrailz folded before Flop
Seat 3: sandmandxp showed [8d 8s] and won ($30.90) with a full house, Eights full of Fives
Seat 4: cartman1887 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: BrunoKernen folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: ErinJeff (button) showed [9s As] and lost with a flush, Ace high
Seat 7: FRESHelNiño (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 8: klausiberlin (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: BubbaJoeAA folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[MrDarling]

Yeah, though the sample size is small he almost always have a 88 here (I actually guessed it before seeing results)
I still push though considering his stack size.


One thing to consider is, do you really want to isolate a 6/0 with a hand like A9s?

[ErinJeff]

One thing to consider is, do you really want to isolate a 6/0 with a hand like A9s?

No, not at all my intent. I was raising more to steal the blinds than anything and I expected a fold. I got callers and then went with the hand as the flop dictated. His hand was pretty well defined postflop (as you pointed out), but I thought I had enough equity to make a go of it.