Low Poket Pair Odds

[mport1]

My friends were arguing about this last night. I had low pocket pairs two times (2s and 4s) and folded on both of them for about 10 or 15 cents in a two dollar game. Both times I made the set after I had folded. They all told me that I should have atleast seen the flop with them, but I disagreed because I believe the chance of making the set is about 13%.

Then my friend said it doesn't matter since I most likely had the advantage going into the flop (since I already had a pair). I told him that even with having the advantage preflop, at least one person is likely to make a pair or something even better.

First of all, what is the probablility of all of two to three other players making a pair or better? Also, how do all of you play low pocket pairs?
And do you know any good links to places that show good analysis of starting hands?

Thanks for your help.

[karasz]

well it really comes down to a couple things

-what was your position?
-did anyone raise?
-how does everyone else play?
-


the odds are 7.5 to 1 against flopping a set (holding a pair and grabbing the 3rd) so that means every 15 times you get a pair, it will successfully set 2 times...

www.poker1.com/mcu/mculib_odds.asp thats where i got the odds... the basic data table for holdem...

[mport1]

The second time when I was holding the 2s, I was in last position. They just preflop since we were playing ante. I am a very tight player and most of the other players I play with are loose.

[mport1]

Also, I don't understand on the link you gave me how the information can be right. They say that the probability for being dealt pocket aces is 220:1 and the probability of being dealt 2 kings through 2 jacks is 73:1. How can that be? Wouldn't the probability of being dealt any pocket pair be the same?

[karasz]

Also, I don't understand on the link you gave me how the information can be right. They say that the probability for being dealt pocket aces is 220:1 and the probability of being dealt 2 kings through 2 jacks is 73:1. How can that be? Wouldn't the probability of being dealt any pocket pair be the same?

yes... but they fool ya a little... KK, QQ, JJ= 3 different hands... not just one


see how that works...

[karasz]

The second time when I was holding the 2s, I was in last position. They just preflop since we were playing ante. I am a very tight player and most of the other players I play with are loose.

then you 'should have' played the twos... i mean its really a toss up... but a safe assumption is no pre flop raises play any pair from the dealer spot...

but hey its a personal preference

[mport1]

The second time when I was holding the 2s, I was in last position. They just preflop since we were playing ante. I am a very tight player and most of the other players I play with are loose.

then you 'should have' played the twos... i mean its really a toss up... but a safe assumption is no pre flop raises play any pair from the dealer spot...

but hey its a personal preference

Sorry, I forgot a word in the post you quoted. I meant to say that they did raise preflop.

[karasz]

if thats the case you made the right call by foding when they rose pre-flop...


just sucks you missed a set...

[kluCAR]

It is like that.
The odds of hitting set on the flop is 0.117. It happens once in 8.5-times. That means if u must put 1$ to se the flop it must be at least 8.5$ in the pot befour flop. But it is not necesery. It can be also less, for example 5$. But then u must earn another 3.5$ on the turn and river which is a piece of cake almost everytime. So my opininon is that u must see flop with low pocket pairs if u have to pay 1 unit. 2 only if u expect lots of callers afterwards. I think it is always smart to fold the second u realized the flop does not have your card.

[snoogins47]

I simply adore low pocket pairs.

The reason being: Sure, somewhere around 7 of every 8 times I get them, I'm not flopping a set.

And then I fold. Cost me 1 small bet each time.

Then that 8th time, I make my set. I'm usually bound to get some action by top pair, and maybe on a draw or two. Lets say the top pair on the board pairs up. All of a sudden, you might run into a capped betting situation with one, or two others, that you most likely have beat. Not always, mind you, but it's typically a nice situation to be in.

I think that if it's cheap, and you're pretty certain it's going to STAY cheap, not taking a flop with a pocket pair is a crime, just because the pay-out on those times you DO flop your set is huge compared to the price of one small bet, or of the big blind, or whatnot.

Just my opinion though, ya'll may feel free to disagree ;P

[Underbelly]

I usually stay in with low pocket pairs if I can get in the hand cheap enough. If a see a couple a raises before me, I usually fold, putting at least one of the other players on a high pair.

Early in tournaments, I almost always see the flop on low pocket pairs just for that reason.

[metal1]

from what i've read and experienced seeing PP 2-6 cheap(or in position maybe calling a small raise) is the way to go. PP 7 and up you can play with more confidence

[vegasholdem]

Limp in as cheaply as possible when it comes to pocket pairs....if you are re-raised and everybody still calls to stay in....you should definitely call an extra bet!

[Ben4040]

I was considering the angles of how to play low pocket pairs recently because I have been playing more ring games than I have in the past. I definitely agree with snoogins47, even if you make your set a very small amount of the time (is it 13%?) when you do hit your set you are going to win a large pot. I can't count how many times I have made a full house with my low pocket pair to bust someone who hit trip kings or aces or even a straight or flush. Generally I limp-in and see what develops. If I miss and there is betting I get out. The trouble I get into is when I limp-in and then get raised pre-flop. I am always wondering if I should call the re-raise or not. Generally if there is a lot of money already on the table and I am pretty sure everyone else who has already limped-in will call the raise, I will call as well. If not, I fold. Is this a bad policy?

[vegasholdem]

it's about:
7.7 to 1 against flopping a Set. That's 11.4% of the time.

When you have a pair preflop: it's about 2 to 1 against(full ring game) someone else having a paired holecards preflop while u do.

When you have a pair preflop: It's 9 to 1 against someone holding 99 or higher(full ring) preflop. That's why i usually raise/reraise when i hold JJ or higher!