Luck in Tournaments

[lwestatbus]

I am hoping to get some opinions on what I've been experiencing with tournament play this summer. While I have dabbled with tournaments (mostly S&G and FPPs) before but my schedule this summer gave me time to play in more traditional (though low buy-in) tournaments. I haven't done very well in these and that's where I'm hoping for some help.

In about 30% of the tournaments I end up basically card dead in a combination of weak starting cards and missed opportunities with big starting cards that don't draw well. This is a bummer but I understand what's going on here.

In the other 70% of my losing tournaments I'll have a more normal distribution of cards and flops and may do well in the early and middle stages of the tournaments. But, invariably, I end up busting out or becoming crippled on one big all in hand. The trouble I'm having is that in the vast majority of these hands (70-80%??) I'm ahead when the money goes in. But I'm getting outdrawn.

This doesn't mean that I'm losing 70% of the all in hands I'm in and I've certainly had my share of suckouts in my favor. But no matter how well I'm running it seems that I eventually run up against an opponent who sucks out on me and that's it.

It seems to me that this is inevitable. If you are 80% to win any one hand the chances of winning five such hands in succession is only 1/3. It follows then that you are not only going to have to play well (defined as being in that 80%-to-win category when the money goes in) but also just get lucky--over and over again.

Frankly, if this is the case I'm starting to think that I should stick with my ring games. But, in contrast, the payoff structure in tournaments does reward that one time (if I ever achieve it) when you make your way through all the minefields to a top finish.

Comments? Sympathy? Encouragement?

[kingetje]

Frankly, if this is the case I'm starting to think that I should stick with my ring games.

you got it!

[supafrey]

Stop calling so much in tourneys. Look for as many possible opportunities to win chips without having to show your cards. That's basically all you can do.

[mortaleclipse]

From the information you provided it sounds like you must play alot of big pots. If your main game is ring, then applying new strats is a must. Developing a good stragety in tournament play takes time like anything else. Im sure like you said, you have been getting your money in good but seam to get outdrawn a good ammount. We all been there but those times will change. I promise if you play enough you will play a tournament and it will seam like you cant lose a hand and steamroll threw the entire thing. It doesnt happen often but it will.

However to be a consistent winner with tournaments its about obtaining chips and not losing them obviously. Most people get scared about making the "thin" value bet or the crying call and these are things that you have to do to make it far in tournaments most of the time. Dont let yourself get in spots were you are playing guessing games OOP. Take advantage of dynamics of the tables when antes kick in and look for spots to steal. All these small things help and maintain your stack.

[LeeG]

Stop calling so much in tourneys. Look for as many possible opportunities to win chips without having to show your cards. That's basically all you can do.

+1

In the tourney I played yesterday people liked to open muck (no idea why). One guy would 3 bet preflop with AK, but check the flop and fold to a bet if no A or K. Another would lay down QQ if any K or A came on flop, even for a small bet. My reads on those 2 players alone allowed me to maintain a chip stack during most of the tourney.

One memorable hand: I am on button with 34o. Action has folded to me. BB is the ultra tight player, and SB is the weak-tight. I bet 4x bb figuring they would both lay down without a big hand. SB called and BB folded. Blinds were 400/800 and I was table chip leader with about 28K. Flop comes Q85. SB checks and I check. Turn is a 2 giving me an open ended draw. SB checks and I bet about 1/2 the pot. SB open folds AK and says "You always seem to hit the flops"

[mortaleclipse]

Stop calling so much in tourneys. Look for as many possible opportunities to win chips without having to show your cards. That's basically all you can do.

+1

In the tourney I played yesterday people liked to open muck (no idea why). "

Well, raeson is most people understand preflop value but not so much post flop. 99% players are just level 1 thinking and not trying to determine what you could have.

[lwestatbus]

From the information you provided it sounds like you must play alot of big pots.

Not really. I'm pretty tight in any game. The description was just about the whole collection of hands you might play in, no matter how they are spaced out.

I promise if you play enough you will play a tournament and it will seam like you cant lose a hand and steamroll threw the entire thing. It doesnt happen often but it will.

This is what I was thinking and maybe even a backhanded underlying motivation for the original post. I've had ring game sessions like this (and even the whole month of June this year ). I can see mathematically how the huge payout structure for top finishers in large tournys can make the overall effort worthwhile but...the time investment is starting to be an issue for me. I'm now starting back on a regular schedule with the fall semester and so just don't think I'll be able to do a lot of tournaments waiting for everything to come together.

Mortal, I appreciate the comments (and everyone else's).

[supafrey]

Lets think about this more generally.

Being tight is a requirement in NLHE. These days you're just not going to be facing as many bad players as you would be pre-legislation, and most consistent winners play some variant of a small range of preflop cards. Being a lag is a death sentence.

How does this play out in cash vs tourneys? It would seem that a cash game lets us get away with being slightly looser preflop because the pots are generally very small to begin with but can grow quite large. In an mtt, this doesn't necessarily apply, as most tournament structures are relatively fast and few of the entrants ever seriously break the 5-25bb barrier for more than a blind level or two. With so few blinds, the natural tendency would seem to be to play even tighter, conserving whatever barrels we might have left. But is it just about our hand range?

It seems that if we're not getting to see as many flops as the looser players (bad players), we have to make up for that disadvantage in a number of key ways. First, we have to punish our opponents when we finally DO have a hand, but secondly, we have to be sure to maximize the image we seem to be portraying. How does one capitalize on a nitty image?

STOP CALLING.

Choose the loosest player on your table, specifically the tricky ones, and make it seem "obvious" to them what their play should be. 3-bet or fold. Nothing else. Play your standard TAG game, but then analyze the key spots when your fold equity and your opponents hand range makes him tossing away his cards very likely. You were very right in saying that sometimes you're just "card dead" in a tournament... but that doesn't necessarily take away all of our weapons, and may even give us the discipline to fold our marginal situations and really press our big plays.

If a really loose player is opening in late position, and you have the "sweet spot" of blinds for fold equity (12-17bb seems clutch) just push with any two cards. Depending on the tournament situation, their stack sizes, and your shown hand range, calling would be a terrible decision on their part. You can't win a tournament with showdowns.. it's impossible. Stop gambling on 60/40 calls and instead look to make 15-33% stack size increases without ever having to turn up your hand.

[supafrey]

bump for my once-in-a-blue-moon serious reply getting ignored.

[zinn0]

bump for my once-in-a-blue-moon serious reply getting ignored.

lol at bumping on this forum. as if it will get lost in the mix of things.

[lwestatbus]

bump for my once-in-a-blue-moon serious reply getting ignored.

I didn't notice this as the thread was developing.

[kingetje]

good stuff supa.. that non showdown poker sounds like a good idea in tournies, but seems really hard for me to achieve, as cash games are like the complete opposite of that in a lot of spots

im trying to brush up on my tourney skills for tonight's event as i havent played one in ages, and when i do play its very far and few between

[mortaleclipse]

Not getting to showdown seams alot harder nowdays. Seams people looking you up so light its unreal, but still Supa got the right idea.

[mortaleclipse]

minutes after posting

PokerStars Game #20223809186: Tournament #105242335, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2008/09/07 15:16:02 ET
Table '105242335 44' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: Hard On Card (3000 in chips)
Seat 2: tzent (2990 in chips)
Seat 3: sir maxelot (3010 in chips)
Seat 4: Mortal420 (3000 in chips)
Seat 5: tgbsmith (3000 in chips)
Seat 7: otrebor34 (3000 in chips)
Seat 8: mitchsmad (3000 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 9: palladyna (3000 in chips)
sir maxelot: posts small blind 10
Mortal420: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mortal420 [Qs 9s]
tgbsmith: folds
otrebor34: folds
mitchsmad: folds
palladyna: calls 20
Hard On Card: folds
tzent: folds
sir maxelot: folds
Mortal420: checks
*** FLOP *** [5s 5d 9d]
Mortal420: bets 40
palladyna: calls 40
*** TURN *** [5s 5d 9d] [8d]
Mortal420: bets 60
palladyna: calls 60
*** RIVER *** [5s 5d 9d 8d] [Kh]
Mortal420: bets 80
palladyna: calls 80
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Mortal420: shows [Qs 9s] (two pair, Nines and Fives)
palladyna: shows [Jc Ks] (two pair, Kings and Fives)
palladyna collected 410 from pot
Mortal420 said, "lmao"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 410 | Rake 0
Board [5s 5d 9d 8d Kh]
Seat 1: Hard On Card folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: tzent (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: sir maxelot (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: Mortal420 (big blind) showed [Qs 9s] and lost with two pair, Nines and Fives
Seat 5: tgbsmith folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: otrebor34 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: mitchsmad folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: palladyna showed [Jc Ks] and won (410) with two pair, Kings and Fives