Middle set facing 3 bet, dry board

[odlozilik]

STAGE #1014189603: HOLDEM NO LIMIT $0.50 - 2008-06-26 17:25:05 (ET)

Table: LUCANO AVE (Real Money) Seat #6 is the dealer

Seat 6 - SHIRL200757 ($36.55 in chips)
Seat 1 - OZMANZ69 ($105.65 in chips)
Seat 2 - DAN651 ($42.91 in chips)
Seat 3 - ODLOZILIK ($100.30 in chips)
Seat 4 - HALFMILLION ($100 in chips)
Seat 5 - MAXFPS ($54.85 in chips)

OZMANZ69 - Posts small blind $0.25
DAN651 - Posts big blind $0.50
HALFMILLION - Posts $0.50

*** POCKET CARDS ***

Dealt to ODLOZILIK [10h 10d]

ODLOZILIK - Raises $2.50 to $2.50
HALFMILLION - Calls $2
MAXFPS - Folds
SHIRL200757 - Folds
OZMANZ69 - Calls $2.25
DAN651 - Calls $2

*** FLOP *** [5h 10c Jd]

OZMANZ69 - Checks
DAN651 - Bets $1
ODLOZILIK - Raises $6 to $6
HALFMILLION - Folds
OZMANZ69 - Raises $16 to $16
DAN651 - Folds
ODLOZILIK - ??

I know, NL50, but does anything but JJ make sense? Villain runs 24/14 over 188 hands, but I didn't notice him before.

[Jernej Zorec]

id say 55 is equally likely, and i think he could have some other wierd hands like KQ also, so i'd say call and get it in on turn so u let him fire another one if he wants

only other option is to push flop imo
folding is out of the question

[xDiamond_CutteRx]

I ship here. I don't like calling and giving a retarded draw a cheap card, I want 55 and JT to get their money in (which they will), and folding is out of question, so that pretty much just leaves raising, and since he has made the 3rd bet, there is a pretty good chance he will call a push. If he has JJ, so be it. I am not laying down, and I'd rather not out think myself later.

Since we have position, calling is OK too with the intent to bet/raise the turn. I just don't want a Q to come off, have him bet, and start thinking about how I might be beat or not.

So my overall vote is ship it.

[zinn0]

I siihp here. I don't want to let the chance slip by. We might not get it again for a very long time.

[miaowmiaowchowface]

I siihp here. I don't want to let the chance slip by. We might not get it again for a very long time.

lol ...wat?

also get it in!

[Jauron]

I not sure why JJ makes more sense than the other hands this can be. Does flat calling preflop from SB with JJ fit his stats? (Doesn't seem like it for me)

[smoove]

i could see A-J here. with the size of the raise relatively small to find out where he stands. with a raise and a call in front of him PF, he could have just called assuming the BB wouldn't reraise. without a read, it would be hard to tell if he could do this with a draw. since any reraise virtually pot commits you, i could see going all-in.

[zinn0]

no love for the siihp comment?

[suitedaces84]

id say 55 is equally likely,

I'd say 55 is more likely. Since he may 3-bet preflop with JJ, and since the flop bettor was more likely to have a J than a 5. JT is also a possibility.

Even if he's super tight and passive and will only do this with a set you still are a slight favorite and you're getting better than 1:1 on your money.

[Jernej Zorec]

yeah but if he just calls with JJ he might aswell just call with QQ also and think he has it on this flop

[odlozilik]

He might not get it again for a very long time.

I have felt I am beat, even though it seemed so improbable. I have acted "by brain" - reraised to 40, he calls, I go all in on the turn, he calls, and, of course, shows JJ. Oh well...