Odds & Luck

[ilikepoker]

AK will pair up 40% of the time.

If I have had AK and not paired either the A or the K for 3 times in a row, odds are (according to the 40% of the time statistic) really quite huge that I'm not going to miss hitting it next time, right?

So my question is, is there good reason as to why we don't use this kind of odds? Or do some people play like this?

[Dave B]

The odds are the same each time. Think of it this way, if you flip a coin and 10 times in a row you get heads, are you 95% sure the next one will be tails??? Or is it still a 50/50 proposition. If you dont understand this DO NOT PLAY POKER!!!! I would like to think that you are kidding.

Where does your 40% come from????

[Nut Flush]

Also, if the percentage is indeed 40%, you would need to do thousands of trial hands to see a decent result. And even that may be out of whack. You can't look at them as a whole, but the fourth time you get AK, just know that you've got a 1/5 chance of hitting a pair(assuming your 40% is correct).

[ilikepoker]

Sorry for the dumb question. Ya my instincts tell me not to play odds like that but my logic can't explain it. Same instinct on the coin flip. Its a good example because I know I wouldn't be 95 % sure it would be tails after 10 consecutive heads but logically I cannot explain why. I guess there is part of my logic that would be more inclined to bet on tails after 10 heads but I wouldn't stake alot of money on it because I tend to hate coin flips. I do play poker, but I only resort to this strange logic sometimes. Like seeing pocket AA heads up emediately after losing with them in another heads up. I'll think to myslef: No way Im going to get beat with these rockets twice in a row! But it also doesn't mean that I will not even watch my op or the board.

By the way, the 40 % is from here:

http://www.texasholdem-poker.com/calcul ... uit=Suited

[Dave B]

Again-be careful....that is the odds of getting paired on the flop, it does not include the turn or river.

[ilikepoker]

good point

[vegasholdem]

Cards actually do have a memory; but dice games don't.

rolling a 6 will alwayz be 5 to 1 against no matter how many consecutive times you roll it! This is fact!

But when trying to be dealt an Ace in a Full deck; your chances of being dealt an Ace will actually Improve everytime you miss!
Everytime you miss, your chances will improve because there are less cards in the Deck! So if you missed your flush draw on the flop; you chances will slightly improve on the Turn...and on the River!

For instance: if you have 22 preflop...it's 7.7 to 1 against catching a Set on the Flop...but if you miss the Set on the flop...it's 22 to 1 against catching a Set on the Turn...but if you go allin preflop...it's only 4.5 to 1 against catching a Set by the River!


Conclusion: Cards actually do have a memory!