Odds On Trips

[wEbMaStEr]

I could go research this i spose but its just idle curiosity and i'll check back in a lilbit......
Say you got a pocket pair, whats the chances you're gonna have a set by the time hand is over?

[Always_Bored]

ive heard 1 in 8 but i dont know that for sure.

[Dave B]

1 in 8 that you will flop it, 1 in 5 that you will make it on the river.

Odds of me hitting one in nealy 30 hours of play in Vegas on 6/12 tables calling pocket pairs everytime-roughly zero in 60.

[HalfSugar]

Here is the math if any1 cares (assuming it's not a showdown til the river):

Pre-flop - 2 out of 50 + 2 out of 49 + 2 out of 48 so 0.122 which is just over 1 in 8.2
Turn - 2 out of 47 so 0.0426 which is just over 1 in 23
River - 2 out of 46 so 0.0438 which is exactly 1 in 23

Add em all up for odds of hitting somewhere on the community pre-flop and u have 0.122 + 0.0426 + 0.0438 = 0.2084 which is 1 in 4.8

Long story short - wot Dave said

[humbleman]

Geno, thanks for the math. Just to support what dave said, I played 6 hours of live 3/6 last night, had pocket pairs 8 times, 0 conversions. Guess somebody else in the world that night was converting everytime in order to balance things out :D :D

[wEbMaStEr]

1 in 8 that you will flop it, 1 in 5 that you will make it on the river.

Odds of me hitting one in nealy 30 hours of play in Vegas on 6/12 tables calling pocket pairs everytime-roughly zero in 60.

odds on your opponant hitting it when you have a top pair and nothing suspicious on board ......................
1:1

[philspec]

Isn't the correct math:

2 out of 50 1 - 0.96
2 out of 49 1 - 0.959
2 out of 48 1 - 0.9583
2 out of 47 1 - 0.957
2 out of 46 1 - 0.956

0.96 * 0.959 * 0.9583 * 0.957 * 0.956 = 0.8076

1 - 0.8076 = 19.2%?

My understanding is that you cannot add up the odds. (If it were correct to add up the odds, then if you had 26 outs after the flop, you'd have a greater than 100% chance of winning!)

[golddog]

When you're calculating odds, you add when you'd say, "or", and multiply when you'd say, "and".

For this example, let's re-phrase the question to be exactly a set. Then, the odds would start like...

1 in 50 * !(1 in 49) *!(1 in 48) + !(1 in 50) * 1 in 49 * !(1 in 48) + ...

In English, 1 card in fifty AND not match the second AND not match the third, OR not match the first card AND match the second AND not match the third OR ...

So, to calculate exact odds can get pretty hairy.

[General Sal]

Philsper is precisely correct... about 19.2 % probablity thus equaling the odds of 4.2:1 against tripping up by the river. I don't spend enough time thinking about the math... I tend to just memorize em, but another way to do it is multiply all of the chances of not hitting it, then multiply all of the chances possible left (the universe?), then subtract the number of misses from the chances, thus leading to the number of hits. Then, you divided that number by the universe. It can get pretty big.

Did you know the odds of getting hemmorhoids in your lifetime is 1:1!

[mindgame]

I'm shocked! Shocked to hear my odds of getting those hemroids are 100%. There goes my chance to be a perfect a**hole!

[vegasholdem]

Pocket pair to trips:
by the flop: 7.7 to 1 against
from flop to the turn: 22 to 1 against
from flop to the river: 11 to 1 against
Allin preflop to river: 4.5 to 1 against