OESFD + 2 overs vs. TAG reg. Push flop or call?

[ErinJeff]

Villain is a TAG reg at NL25 11/5/2.5 over 300. The original pf raiser is a total donk. I expected a fold from the BB (Villain), but now I have to give him credit for a hand.

POKERSTARS GAME #16855524533: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.10/$0.25) - 2008/04/19 - 23:09:14 (ET)
Table 'Edasich II' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: wezvidzz ($15.30 in chips)
Seat 2: tgf18tgf ($5.55 in chips)
Seat 3: 1964 9 ($13.15 in chips)
Seat 4: crisb732002 ($12.90 in chips)
Seat 5: crazygun7 ($42.25 in chips)
Seat 6: SWAT_FACE ($4.65 in chips)
Seat 7: netami13 ($51.90 in chips)
Seat 9: ErinJeff ($26.45 in chips)
ErinJeff: posts small blind $0.10
wezvidzz: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ErinJeff [Tc Jc]
tgf18tgf has timed out
tgf18tgf: folds
tgf18tgf is sitting out
1964 9: raises $0.25 to $0.50
crisb732002: folds
crazygun7: folds
SWAT_FACE: folds
netami13: folds
ErinJeff: calls $0.40
wezvidzz: calls $0.25
*** FLOP *** [9c 3s 8c]
ErinJeff: bets $1.75
wezvidzz: raises $2.50 to $4.25
1964 9: folds

ErinJeff: Call and re-eval turn, or push.

[Ensano]

easy push... both players have lower stacks and you need to get whatever fold equity you have now...

assuming villian is a solid tag QQ+ are out of the question here cause he wouldn't let 3 people see the flop... one could argue that he may see your donkbet as a FD and could reraise with any pair but for now lets leave it at a set, FD of 98 for 2 pair

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

27,720 games 0.005 secs 5,544,000 games/sec

Board: 9c 8c 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.876% 51.68% 00.19% 14326 54.00 { JcTc }
Hand 1: 48.124% 47.93% 00.19% 13286 54.00 { JJ-88, 33, AcKc, KcQc, 9d8d, 9h8h, 9s8s, 7c6c, 6c5c, 98o }

[xDiamond_CutteRx]

Definite push, given that he doesn't have that much money left and you have the equity edge against every hand except a set.

[Kemics]

even to a set you're no worse than a 55 - 45 under dog, in fact it's roughly the same odds if they have Ax too. With whats in the pot there is no way you can do anything but push

[MrDarling]

f* stack sizes, you have tons of equity against everything and you want to put as much money on the flop when your equity is the best.

I lost with top set vs the exact same hand, didn't even helped that I filled up on the river since he did it his straight flush!

[kingetje]

i dont think villain is actually a "solid TAG regular" with stats like that and sitting on half a buy in... cmon now.

but shove

[ErinJeff]

OK. I get the shove is the correct play to maximize folds and get my money in with the highest equity.

What if, given our history with Villain, we "know" he has a set here? Does that change the recommendation to reraise/push this flop?

The numbers are

Board: 8c 9c 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.121% 42.12% 00.00% 3753 0.00 { JcTc }
Hand 1: 57.879% 57.88% 00.00% 5157 0.00 { 99-88, 33 }

[xDiamond_CutteRx]

Even if we know he has a set, I think getting all our money in now has the best EV. We give up too much by folding, and calling leaves us in a bad spot if we don't hit the draw on the next card. And in reality, because we cannot KNOW for sure he has a set, we have to push, because we're beating everything else (except higher clubs, as Kemics noted... and then we have overs as outs as well).

[Gunslinger]

i dont think villain is actually a "solid TAG regular" with stats like that and sitting on half a buy in... cmon now.

but shove

+1.

For 60BBs, I'm getting all my money in on that flop every time.

[TheSalche]

Reasons to push:

1. Fold Equity
2. Our hand has solid equity against even the tightest set range
3. Villain is short, so we are able to get it in on the flop without this being a big overbet.
4. We're OOP and don't want to play poker on turn and river.

[xDiamond_CutteRx]

Reasons to push:

1. Fold Equity
2. Our hand has solid equity against even the tightest set range
3. Villain is short, so we are able to get it in on the flop without this being a big overbet.
4. We're OOP and don't want to play poker on turn and river.

Well said. I am quite convinced that these outweigh any conceivable reason for calling, except as a very occasional randomizer (and this might even be a 100% situation to be honest).

[ErinJeff]

i dont think villain is actually a "solid TAG regular" with stats like that and sitting on half a buy in... cmon now

True. I guess I should have said NIT? I'm still not sure what that really means.

Well, the hand played out as expected
I'd still take the same line (as suggested by everyone) in a similar situation. I was mostly interested if there was anyone who played it different than I did.

Thanks again.

POKERSTARS GAME #16855524533: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.10/$0.25) - 2008/04/19 - 23:09:14 (ET)
Table 'Edasich II' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: wezvidzz ($15.30 in chips)
Seat 2: tgf18tgf ($5.55 in chips)
Seat 3: 1964 9 ($13.15 in chips)
Seat 4: crisb732002 ($12.90 in chips)
Seat 5: crazygun7 ($42.25 in chips)
Seat 6: SWAT_FACE ($4.65 in chips)
Seat 7: netami13 ($51.90 in chips)
Seat 9: ErinJeff ($26.45 in chips)
ErinJeff: posts small blind $0.10
wezvidzz: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ErinJeff [Tc Jc]
tgf18tgf has timed out
tgf18tgf: folds
tgf18tgf is sitting out
1964 9: raises $0.25 to $0.50
crisb732002: folds
crazygun7: folds
SWAT_FACE: folds
netami13: folds
ErinJeff: calls $0.40
wezvidzz: calls $0.25
*** FLOP *** [9c 3s 8c]
ErinJeff: bets $1.75
wezvidzz: raises $2.50 to $4.25
1964 9: folds
tgf18tgf has returned
ErinJeff: raises $21.70 to $25.95 and is all-in
wezvidzz: calls $10.55 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [9c 3s 8c] [5h]
*** RIVER *** [9c 3s 8c 5h] [9h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
ErinJeff: shows [Tc Jc] (a pair of Nines)
wezvidzz: shows [3d 3c] (a full house, Threes full of Nines)
wezvidzz collected $29.55 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $31.10 | Rake $1.55
Board [9c 3s 8c 5h 9h]
Seat 1: wezvidzz (big blind) showed [3d 3c] and won ($29.55) with a full house, Threes full of Nines
Seat 2: tgf18tgf folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: 1964 9 folded on the Flop
Seat 4: crisb732002 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: crazygun7 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: SWAT_FACE folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: netami13 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: ErinJeff (small blind) showed [Tc Jc] and lost with a pair of Nines

[Ensano]

if he shows me pocket 3s i still thnk i play this hand out..

[xDiamond_CutteRx]

Unlucky mate. Reload and try again. PokerStove says we played it good. Poker gods say we suck.

[ErinJeff]

I need to talk to these poker gods. What do they want? A fatted calf? A rooster? I have them and they can gladly take them if it would help.