Online Pro out Of Order IMO

[Sentinel]

Dunno if this has been discussed before but NBC HU Championship - Hellmuth vs Dwan.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=zY3b27vZwYk

At the risk of being flamed for daring to question a top online player. I have just watched the clash and cannot believe how Dwan can legislate his play.

Despite the millions he has made online, he has no major triumphs in live play and yet seeks to tell Phil Hellmuth he is a bad player. Sure, Hellmuth was condescending with his use of "son" but he's a proven player over 20 years and to be told by some upstart to "learn how to play" is out of order, IMO.


My thoughts on the hand itself:

1) Raising all in with pocket 10s, in the 3rd hand is just ludicrous. Either he's pushing Phil out of the pot and not maximising the value of his hand or he's getting called. If he gets called he is a massive dog or a 50/50 at best. His best scenario is an unnecessary coin flip?!

So to me, I can't see how Dwan sees that as a good play. Maybe if one was uber short stacked but not 3 hands in. That's the kind of play I expect in the donkaments I frequent.


2) I am not adovcating he folds his 10s to Phil's raise but cannot see the logic in shoving with them just 3 hands in when both are presumably deep stacked.


3) He didn't seem to read PH at all, which is inexcusable for a multi millionaire pro because there are hours and hours of Phil that he must have seen.


4) And that appears to be a major flaw that seperates online poker from live poker. The top online players are heavily maths based - as Dwan tried to infer with his "would you call 3100?" line - but live poker is maths and more.


However........


Of more interest to me is Dwan's reaction and body language throughout. I may not be a good poker player but my living is made up of reading body language to an acute level, including muscle tone andcolourisation, and at this I am excellent. From what I observe, Dwan is completely at odds with what he is actually saying.

Like any tell, there may be reasons as to why people react a certain way but 95% of the time, the traditional reads of body language hold true. And so I will have to align to them based on just one video of Dwan and no insight into him as a person.

Dwan gets prickly when Hellmuth calls his play and goes into defence mode. He admitted he sucked out yet still goes uber defensive to justify his play. Quite a contradiction. He then refuses to make eye contact with Phil and this is indicative of someone who is in the wrong and/or is being deceitful. Which is exactly what's going on if he has been caught with his pants down on TV, running tens into aces.

His muscle tone contracts and his shoulders compact, which is also in contrast to the physiology when someone believes they are in the right. Physically he's 'locking down'.

If he truly believed he made a standard play then he wouldn't feel so compelled to insta challenge Phil to a HU match. He's on the defensive again and, coupled with his body language and actions is not providing congruence with his words.

And as he admitted he sucked out, there would still be no reason to challenge to a HU. It's all indicative of an individual who wants to atone for an error. All in all, he becomes overtly defensive, which is telling enough. The fact that he does so after admitting he sucked out is even more so.

[kingetje]

2) I am not adovcating he folds his 10s to Phil's raise but cannot see the logic in shoving with them just 3 hands in when both are presumably deep stacked.

you say deep stacked but i believe they started the hand with 67BB's....

[xDiamond_CutteRx]

1. Not really. Heads up, most pairs are pretty big hands, especially considering Phil is capable of reraising with overcards, a smaller pair, or some other random hands, especially since he considers Dwan to be an overaggressive nutball. Full ring, the play would be ludicrous, but there just ain't that kind of time in NBC's crapshoot event.

2. Again, not really deepstacked. They start with 20,000 chips, blinds begin at 150/300, and they go up relatively fast. That's 67 BB, which is presumably going to be trimmed down a lot before too long. If you see a shot, you take it.

3. Sure, so Phil knows that Dwan is very aggressive, and Dwan knows Phil is capable of pulling a lot of moves, AND he knows Phil NEVER likes to take what he perceives as a coinflip, so Dwan actually has a ton of equity with TT here, as I think it is plausible Phil would do something stupid like fold AK.

4. What else is he supposed to glean from the hand? Phil sits there like a rock, so don't say something about body language. To me, this particular play is very straight-forward and does a much better job of playing against PHIL than you give Dwan credit for.

Background on the rest of the business:

Phil lost a bunch of money to Dwan (durrr) online, and because Phil is *obviously* the best player in the world, the only way for anyone to beat him is to get ridiculously lucky, and Phil was notorious for continually berating durrr and telling him how badly he played, culminating with Phil challenging durrr to heads-up matches, to which durrr responded, "any time, anywhere, for any amount of money." But as is usual with Phil, he was all talk and no matches ever occurred. So when Phil launches into his tirade again about what a bad play Dwan made, Dwan gave him exactly what he wanted: he told Phil they can play heads-up anytime, because durrr knows he is a big favorite in that match-up, mostly as a function of him having a TON more experience playing heads-up No Limit Hold'em than Phil does.

Dwan didn't come off the best, but in my mind it was Hellmuth who was way out of line, calling the kid flat-out bad, and then issuing challenges he has no intention of backing up like a coward. Just another example of how Phil is mostly bravado with very little to back it up when he is out of his element.

[Jauron]

Helmuth was out of line IMO he picked the fight. For a guy who proclaims himself the best player ever he should whines like a newb when he gets beat.

I don't think the 10's were out of line there, Phil makes some big lay downs and 10's aren't easy to play post flop OOP. I'm pretty sure Phil would have laid down AK or AQ there and sometimes JJ or QQ.

[supafrey]

as usual, etiquette questions are retarded.
as usual, high stakes analysis is useless.

[supafrey]

4) And that appears to be a major flaw that seperates online poker from live poker. The top online players are heavily maths based - as Dwan tried to infer with his "would you call 3100?" line - but live poker is maths and more.

This isn't what durr was saying.

He basically did the poker equivalent of "i wouldn't touch a man's penis except for 1 million dollars" and someone replying "yeah, what about $999,990!??"

He was trying to show that hellmuth was just talking for the sake of talking.

I'm going to say it because no one else will, but you sound like a deluded live player that thinks he's figured out what "real poker is" while forgetting what the point of the game is: to make money.

Hellmuth is trying to say anything and everything to make his stock and bankroll rise - acting the way he did in this video is perfect for that.
Durr (like most online players) isn't focusing on getting an agent/promotions/endorsements. He's thinking immediate short term results - everything he says in this video is an amazing high stakes no limit player brushing off repeated theatrics in the hopes he can actually commit hellmuth to playing him more in a possibly embarrassing setting.

You are over-analyzing this video in a way that I commonly see from live players... you're focusing way too much on the specifics of the hand and the "mystique" of poker.

[HalfSugar]

Hellmuth is trying to say anything and everything to make his stock and bankroll rise - acting the way he did in this video is perfect for that.

Yup. The more you watch Phil, the more it obvious that most of his persona is an act. It is an act that works too since even in his leaner times, he is often in the spotlight without having to do much more than have a 'tantrum' on camera.

[supafrey]

Excluding poker players that invested in sites (lol gambling money) Hellmuth has prolly made more from the poker "industry" than any other player. It's painful how well his act works on most viewers... they eat it up. Not buying into all these other shameless revenue streams is probably way, way, way -EV for all of the young hotshots these days.

[Sentinel]

Diamond,

Thx for the extra info. It makes a lot of difference. If I knew it was a crapshoot, with fast blinds, I understand the play too. I also think PH would fold AK too. Least I got something right

If they had 67 blinds, a fair amount at that point, would you still not see it as more reasonable to call? In a standard tourney with 1500 starting chips and 10/20 blinds, an all in with 10s is extreme - and that's with just 50bb.

I understand about the fold equity if Phil was making a move but what if Phil had JJ+?

As for 4) I just got the impression that he didn't give any consideration to what Phil could have or Phil as a player. Maybe he did. Especially if they've played before. It just appeared to me that he thought purely about the maths of it all and nothing else.

Phil lost a bunch of money to Dwan (durrr) online.....and Phil was notorious for continually berating durrr and telling him how badly he played

Was that because he got sucked out on or was it just excuses?,

I know you're mocking of Phil's 'best in the world' line but even Negreanu admitted he is behind the online world, as they play differently to live players. So, in your opinion, isn't their some element of truth or vindication in Phil's attitude?
Especially when you consider that no online pro has yet torn through the live world as the established pros have?

durrr knows he is a big favorite in that match-up, mostly as a function of him having a TON more experience playing heads-up No Limit Hold'em than Phil does

I see where you're coming from but surely the mainstream pros have been online just as much as some 20 year old?




Supa,

He basically did the poker equivalent of "i wouldn't touch a man's penis except for 1 million dollars" and someone replying "yeah, what about $999,990!??"

Yeah, I thought this at first.

I'm going to say it because no one else will, but you sound like a deluded live player that thinks he's figured out what "real poker is

Short answer: nah. Longer answer: you're assuming far too much, with far too little information and without any justification in doing so. As for having figured out what real poker is, practically all my posts infer or express that I am learning and am still new to the scene. With just one live foray.

All I said was that live poker is maths and more. And I inferred that real poker is live poker, not sat behind a screen crunching numbers. As this thought is held by many leading players, I have no shame inaligning to it, even though I am a noob who can only dream of Dwan's results.

You are over-analyzing this video in a way that I commonly see from live players... you're focusing way too much on the specifics of the hand and the "mystique" of poker.

And you're assuming way, waaaaay too much. You've seen (or think you've seen) traits of live players and applied them to me - even though, as said, I'm not a live player. Do I think there is more to poker than just number crunching? Yes. But that doesn't mean I focus on any 'mystique'. As for what is supposedly deluded, I have no idea what you're on about, apart from another foray into condescension.

As for analysing the hand, isn't that what players who want to improve do? To gauge their understading and to get better? All I did was give my thoughts as to why I think it was played bad and I opened the thread by saying I am a noob who may be ill judged to comment. But my comments also gave the opportunity to receive feedback and thus to learn. Amazing how much this learning thing pops up during hand analysis!

Re over analysing: I just gave my thoughts on the hand. The bulk of the analysis was on Dwan's body language. Maybe he was being congruent. Maybe he's just an awkward geek, not used to the TV cameras, live play or a ranting Phil Hellmuth. But that is the 5% exception to the rule.

[supafrey]

Re over analysing: I just gave my thoughts on the hand. The bulk of the analysis was on Dwan's body language. Maybe he was being congruent. Maybe he's just an awkward geek, not used to the TV cameras, live play or a ranting Phil Hellmuth. But that is the 5% exception to the rule.

He's none of these things. He was trying to do anything he could to get hellmuth to commit to play him HU, because he thought it would make him money. That's it. That's it.

The idea that Durr would feel awkward from someone like hellmuth, a $10k event, or a couple of cameras is absurd. He also would never, ever, ever feel guilty for a suckout. You are over-analyzing this hand.

And plz don't ever say anything as ludicrous as durrrr not "trying to find out a read or thinking about how hellmuth plays"... You don't see how this could be a silly assumption about one of the top 10 HE players in the world?

[Sentinel]

Re over analysing: I just gave my thoughts on the hand. The bulk of the analysis was on Dwan's body language. Maybe he was being congruent. Maybe he's just an awkward geek, not used to the TV cameras, live play or a ranting Phil Hellmuth. But that is the 5% exception to the rule.

He's none of these things. He was trying to do anything he could to get hellmuth to commit to play him HU, because he thought it would make him money. That's it. That's it.

The idea that Durr would feel awkward from someone like hellmuth, a $10k event, or a couple of cameras is absurd.

Supa,

Are you an expert in this area? Is your living made through analysing and understanding body language? I highly doubt it. Mine is. It's an extremely large part of what I do.

Yet without any training or expertise you feel like you know exactly what he was doing? Is that what you're saying? That's as silly as noobs who suck out then say "I had a feeling my 6 10 was going to flop big."

And how do you know just exactly what he was intending? Especially as the vast majority of his physical cues were unconscious? And to top this off, how do you know what he thinks? Not even the top experts could answer this just from a short clip. And how do you know what makes him nervous? I've dealt with people whose livelihood involves being in front of large audiences and yet it terrifies them - not that anyone would know.

So if a career professional can be apprehensive after thousands of events then it's not so absurb for a 21 year old, who has made just 2 or 3 TV appearances, to feel the pressure. Many people feel nervous during their first few casino trips, away from their PCs, so just think how daunting an actual TV appearance can be. And one where it's HU. And one where he's being torn off a strip, rightly or wrongly, by one of the biggest names ever.

Most people would feel awkward if this happened in the street, by a nobody, surrounded by passers by - let alone on national TV, by a top name and with their peers all watching.

So all in all, are you just giving a totally unfounded and unmerited opinion? More than likely.

He also would never, ever, ever feel guilty for a suckout. You are over-analyzing this hand.

I never said guilty. Pay attention. Especially if you're going to make ill founded psycho analytical judgements (which is MY field, not yours).

And plz don't ever say anything as ludicrous as

You know, coming from the king of glib and pointless one line replies, who's percentage of helpful contribution is circa 0.32% of all posts, this is most ironic.

And plz don't ever say anything as ludicrous as durrrr not "trying to find out a read or thinking about how hellmuth plays"... You don't see how this could be a silly assumption about one of the top 10 HE players in the world?

First of all, I did see how silly it may appear as I made it quite clear at the start by freely admitted that I was giving my opinions, on a far superior player, and they may be wrong. And as said in my above post, I did so in order to get feedback and learn - which is what most people who frequent this forum are here to do. And at the very least, it's just free speech and commentary. I bet you have discussed music and films despite probably not being gifted or qualified in either area.

Had you passed your comments on music and films in a highly regarded specialist magazine then that would be ludicrous. But chatting informally on an internet forum is not. That's all I have done. I started a thread looking for feedback. I'm not writing a strategy book for 2+2.

And I only said that it "seemed" like he didn't think about Phil's play. I watched a 2 minute video clip, that is all. And again, I made it quite clear in my original post that I was working with highly limited information and had to make the best of what I had.

Secondly, I post for information. Diamond and Jauron both replied with their opinions, which have helped me to fine tune my opinion. I have learnt from their comments as I have more information on events, history and the strategy behind his play. And in return, I asked the questions that arose when reading their replies. All part of the learning process.

a silly assumption about one of the top 10 HE players in the world

First, he's one of the top 10 online. He may well transfer to the live arena and be the next Stu Ungar but until then....

Secondly, just a cursory browse through this, and any poker forum, will reveal many such comments from the wannabes, neverwillbes & the goodbutnotelite about many top stars. At least I have the integrity to admit my position in the poker universe unlike those that state as fact that multi WSOP winners are terrible and that they could play them off the felt. I mean, just how silly is that?

You talk about ludicrous but you misread pretty much all that I wrote, infer without warrant, ignore massive chunks of info to the contrary, and then claim to know exactly what someone was thinking and what will/will not make them nervous. Now that is ludicrous!

Diamond and Jauron all replied with their opinions, which have helped me to fine tune my opinion. I have learnt from their comments as I have more information on events, history and the strategy behind his play. And in return, I asked the questions that arose when reading their replies. All part of the learning process.

The bottom line is that his body language and assorted cues were not congruent. The reasons for that may be varied. With the limited info I had, I had to align with the reasons that were more likely than not. Those I quoted are true in over 95% of cases. The other 5% are the exceptons: nerves, socially awkward, fear of mice etc.

[Garoen]

Quote:
And plz don't ever say anything as ludicrous as

You know, coming from the king of glib and pointless one line replies, who's percentage of helpful contribution is circa 0.32% of all posts, this is most ironic.

International Kings of Glib:
Champion - Matt Lauer
Runner up - Supafey

[supafrey]

Your analysis is embarrassing. As someone that has regular conversations with HSNL players in personal and professional (cards) settings, I'd just like to inform you that your kind of hyper-active analysis is the kind of stuff they laugh at. Your wonderful 3 year BA may have taught you "body language" but your inexperience in this game is making you inappropriately assign far too much importance on irrelevant points. If you go to a neurosurgeon with a backache, he's gonna tell you it's related to your head. You're looking to understand complex body signals without understanding even the most basic points of HSNL game setups, how/where they derive their edges from, or ANY knowledge of the poker "industry" that's guiding these decisions.

And the difference between me and you, is when I say top 10 holdem players, I refer to one and only one thing: money. You thinking they need to "make the move to live" to prove something to you speaks more loudly than any of your pseudo-scientific behaviouralist crap. As much as I love the inaccuracy of psychology for the occasional laugh, watching you awkwardly try to apply it to strangers' professions without even the most basic understanding of HS dynamics is just way too much for me.

[supafrey]

OMG I CANT BELIEVE HE PUSHED WITH TENS DID HE EVEN TRY TO GET A READ ON HIM!??! If I JUST had a few million dollars i know I could totally CRUSH him. Internet wannabe needs to learn some real poker! IT AINT REAL UNLESS ITS TWENTY HANDS AN HOUR AND NOBODY CAN CHECK RAISE!

[Garoen]