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Overpair to flop, facing raise.

Analysis of specific hands and general game theory
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9 posts • Page 1 of 1

Overpair to flop, facing raise.

Postby LeeG » Tue Oct 07, 2008 6:43 pm GMT

$10 45 man SnG.

8 left, 6 get paid. Hero is largest stack with 23K. 4 players under 5K, 3 between 8 and 15K.

Blinds are 600/1200.
SB - 4K
BB - 15K
UTG - 7K
Hero - 23K
MP - 12K
others are short stacked.

Hero has T :club: T :spade:
UTG goes AI.
Hero calls (probably should push/fold, but called)
MP calls.
Rest of table folds.

Flop is 9 :club: 9 :spade: 2 :heart:
Action to hero?
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Postby miaowmiaowchowface » Tue Oct 07, 2008 7:39 pm GMT

c/f
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Postby jimmer » Wed Oct 08, 2008 2:52 am GMT

miaowmiaowchowface wrote:c/f
Really? Please expand more?

Are you inturpting MP's pre-flop call as a higher pair, or are you looking for the rest of the hand to be checked down?

I would of thought that at this point we probably have the best hand?

Also MP only has 5k left and there's already 22k in the pot. So if we check and MP pushes all-in we are getting 27/5 (just over 5/1) to call, which I'm thinking is a pretty much a mandatory call?

I am shit at tourneys so am happy to be corrected and admit I could be totally wrong on this one, I just can't see the logic of check-folding???
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Postby Gunslinger » Wed Oct 08, 2008 10:59 am GMT

jimmer, I would think miao is joking.

Lee, I think you should just shove this flop. jimmer's right, if you check and MP shoves, you have to call, so you might as well shove first and give him a chance to make a mistake by folding a hand he shouldn't.

By the way, this is NOT a spot where you want to "check it down" with MP to try to eliminate UTG. The pot is huge, and you want to give yourself every chance to win it. If you have MP beat right now, you do not want to give him free cards to overtake you.
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Postby jimmer » Wed Oct 08, 2008 11:10 am GMT

Gunslinger wrote:By the way, this is NOT a spot where you want to "check it down"
Why-because the pot is so big that if MP wins he will be chip leader right?
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Postby MrDarling » Wed Oct 08, 2008 12:21 pm GMT

PF is a big mistake, especially considering stack to blinds ratio but you know it.

Post is almost interesting, we're almost always ahead here (the only hand we can worry about is JJ) if villain called with some weird 9 then be it.

So we need to decide if its worth it keeping SB in the pot in the chance he can out draw UTG if UTG is ahead. we really benefit when a player is busted.

However, due to the fact that the pot is bigger then what we have now, as well as the fact that SB (as well as the rest of the table) benefit much more if UTG bust (due to stack sizes) I think we should shove here.
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Postby LeeG » Wed Oct 08, 2008 12:50 pm GMT

I really figured I was ahead here, so I pushed. He calls and shows pocket kings.

I caught a T on the river to boat up and put us all into the money (original AI had ace-rag, about what I was expecting).
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Postby Gunslinger » Wed Oct 08, 2008 2:22 pm GMT

jimmer wrote:
Gunslinger wrote:By the way, this is NOT a spot where you want to "check it down"
Why-because the pot is so big that if MP wins he will be chip leader right?

Because, as played, the pot on the flop is so big that maximizing our chances of winning those chips is more important than eliminating a player. Winning those chips will give us an enormous chip lead, raising our chances of winning the whole tournament.
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Postby miaowmiaowchowface » Wed Oct 08, 2008 10:51 pm GMT

actually, I was being srs, I think the only time we should get what money we have left in is when we have the right odds to hit a 2 outer. I don't know the dynamics of donkament play, but usually that overcaller right there has TT+ at least. not to mention the UTG.

Might this be a fold prefrop? (dont know teh oddS) doesnt seem like it its TT omg
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