Pf raise, check flop/turn, V pushes 100BB on river

[ErinJeff]

I totally pooched this hand due to a distraction, and I'm not really looking for comments like "cbet the flop", "fold pf" as I know what I 'should' have done. I'm specifically interested in this river push by V and how you play it (obviously, call v fold) and why. Villain is 24/8/3 with an AFq of 43%, but only over 50 hands.

PokerStars Game #19745529712: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2008/08/19 - 18:52:37 (ET)
Table 'Halley V' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Zenzor ($62.45 in chips)
Seat 2: ErinJeff ($63.10 in chips)
Seat 3: GooiMielies ($9.25 in chips)
Seat 4: Andy_Lepper ($53.15 in chips)
Seat 5: Olga1981 ($8.25 in chips)
Seat 6: Matteo29 ($28.45 in chips)
Seat 7: umaebitz ($42.55 in chips)
Seat 8: _Aer_Mingus_ ($56.90 in chips)
Seat 9: Greg890 ($50 in chips)
Andy_Lepper: posts small blind $0.25
Olga1981: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ErinJeff [7s 6s]
Matteo29: folds
umaebitz: folds
_Aer_Mingus_: folds
Greg890: folds
Zenzor: folds
ErinJeff: raises $1.50 to $2
GooiMielies: folds
Andy_Lepper: calls $1.75
Olga1981: folds
*** FLOP *** [5h Js 3c]
Andy_Lepper: checks
ErinJeff: checks
*** TURN *** [5h Js 3c] [9s]
Andy_Lepper: checks
ErinJeff: checks
*** RIVER *** [5h Js 3c 9s] [Ks]
Andy_Lepper: bets $51.15 and is all-in
ErinJeff: ??

[xDiamond_CutteRx]

Wow. Sick spot, because some guys will play a big flush like that. I don't honestly see him having much else here, because it's otherwise such a bizarre/dumb bet.

Basically you have to call $51 to win $54. Is he realistically bluffing/betting a worse hand a full 50% of the time? Hard to imagine even for a bad player, but here I go giving too much credit again.

If I knew what AFq was, I might be able to help more, but the fact you only have 50 hands on him doesn't say much anyway.

[ErinJeff]

AFq is the frequency of aggressive action. It's like aggression factor as a percentage. It tends to converge more quickly than AF, and for this guy itindicates (so far) that he is kind of passive. 50% would be bets/raises half and calls half.

[xDiamond_CutteRx]

OK that doesn't really change anything.

Of course, if he bet small, I'd probably be saying raise. Almost doesn't seem to mesh with the idea of folding to a push here, but we literally have to be right almost half the time.

[ErinJeff]

Of course, if he bet small, I'd probably be saying raise.

This is exactly what I would do.

[Yozman]

do people fold flushes if they consider villain has a higher flush? is this the same as folding bottom set if your afraid of higher set? just wondering whats everyones opinion on this.

well i never fold sets if i put villain on higher set.

and i never fold flushes (unless 4 flush on board)if i put villain on higher flush

this is really sick but, massive overbet like this with not much of a read. wow tough spot, i probably fold, u have $2 in the pot. id let it go

[miaowmiaowchowface]

not folding, i has a flush

[gumbie]

I fold this if I haven't seen him do anything ridiculous before.

[suitedaces84]

do people fold flushes if they consider villain has a higher flush? is this the same as folding bottom set if your afraid of higher set? just wondering whats everyones opinion on this.

If you have a flush on a 3 flush board there are 28 possible flush combos out there for your opponent to hold (you might discount a few of these, but those would be mostly weaker flushes in this case). If you flop bottom set there are 6 higher set combos. 2 card flush vs. 2 card flush is much more common than set vs. set. I'd be much more likely to fold a weak 2 card flush than a low set, given similar conditions.

[kingetje]

i call this for sure

[miaowmiaowchowface]

btw I don't think a fold is terrible, but I still call lol