Call here?

[Cricket_Fire]

PokerStars Game #5057257952: Tournament #25397728, 10000+325 Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2006/05/26 - 11:10:21 (ET)
Table '25397728 2' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: metrodawg (5445 in chips)
Seat 2: edkess (3910 in chips)
Seat 3: SHARK SEAN (1135 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 4: shammieAA (1185 in chips)
Seat 7: Cricket_Fire (2670 in chips)
Seat 8: Sigmo (1600 in chips)
Seat 9: pokerpare (1595 in chips)
shammieAA: posts small blind 25
Cricket_Fire: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Cricket_Fire [Td 7d]
Sigmo: calls 50
pokerpare: folds
metrodawg: calls 50
edkess: folds
SHARK SEAN: folds
shammieAA: calls 25
Cricket_Fire: checks
*** FLOP *** [8c 4d Jd]
shammieAA: checks
Cricket_Fire: checks
SHARK SEAN has returned
Sigmo: checks
metrodawg: bets 200
shammieAA: folds
Cricket_Fire: calls 200





Did I do the math right to make this all? $200 already in the pot, he bets $200.

Pot odds are 2-1, or 1/3, so ~33%.

Odds of making my hand are Gutshot + Flush Draw = 4+8 = 12 outs
12x4 = 48%


So, I need to call 33% of the pot, and will win 48% of the time. Is this right?

Thanks

[Icec0o1]

multiplying by 4 includes turn + river.

The chance of you hitting the flush/inside straight draw on the turn is 1/5 + 1/12 =~ 1/4.5 or 23% or 12 outs * 2.

So the odds are not in your favor to call unless you believe that your implied odds are large enough.

[Sean_in_NJ]

So the odds are not in your favor to call unless you believe that your implied odds are large enough.

Or if you're 100% sure you won't have to call a turn bet.

Actually, that would be kind of interesting: an EV calculation that combined implied odds and the probability of facing a bet on the turn. The size of the that bet would be the hard thing to estimate, though.

[Cricket_Fire]

Ah, never thought of that 8)

Thanks for the clear up

P.S. I called & made my flush