$10/$20 Stud Hand

[tame_deuces]

Hmm, that Hold'em example is abit messed up.

Ofcourse, with horrible limpers, your preflop equity with AQ (especially AQs) will be high enough to raise with, and when 6 limpers pay for your raise with their own money, they have sponsored a large pot where you may be able to draw profitably to a better hand, even if you miss the flop. And that profit come from a pot you only paid 1/6th of!

Which incidentally is a similar principle but in reverse.

Its perfectly natural and profitable to use the 'schooling effect' to your own advantage by building big pots.

[xDiamond_CutteRx]

Hmm, that Hold'em example is abit messed up.

Ofcourse, with horrible limpers, your preflop equity with AQ (especially AQs) will be high enough to raise with, and when 6 limpers pay for your raise with their own money, they have sponsored a large pot where you may be able to draw profitably to a better hand, even if you miss the flop. And that profit come from a pot you only paid 1/6th of!

Which incidentally is a similar principle but in reverse.

Its perfectly natural and profitable to use the 'schooling effect' to your own advantage by building big pots.

Precisely, but there are two different reasons for raising with AQ.

1. For value.
2. To protect your hand.

In the above example, raising will accomplish (1), but not (2).

But if you're using math as the be-all end-all in poker, you're pretty much destined to a break-even career

I could not disagree more. Particularly in limit games, analysis of the odds is usually the difference between being a winning or losing player. Obviously there are psychological factors, but the only reason they're important is to increase your EV. The optimal play in Poker is ALWAYS to maximize your EV, either in the short term or long term.

The real trick is figuring out what that play is.

[flafishy]

Particularly in limit games, analysis of the odds is usually the difference between being a winning or losing player.

I don't disagree with that at all. What I'm saying is that it's one tool in your arsenal, but should not be overrated as the single factor in making a decision. I understand the point you're making that by raising third street on the hand in question might give someone on a marginal draw in a subsequent street pot odds to make calls correct. The point I'm making is that the advantages you gain by putting in a raise give you more of an edge in the hand than the small consideration you're taking, and you've way overrated that consideration. You're not taking into consideration that putting your opponents on the defensive early gives you so many more options on the next few streets that are greater than the possibility that someone might make an incorrect call to the pot odds later.

[TheSalche]

I'm gonna post a reply first without really reading much of everybody elses replies ... then maybe make another if anything else catches my eye.

Flush draw is really the only hand on 3rd street that makes sense for villain to have. He has three players behind with higher door cards who will probably raise if they have a pair, so I really don't think pair of 6s is likely here. The only other thing he could have is a pocket pair, but I think its too early in the hand to tell.

Diamond, I'm guessing you felt the same because your raise on 4th was an attempt to make sure the 23 is out of the hand, and gives you a chance for a free card later on (since you are now "in command" of the hand).

Fishy, I did read your reply that heart draw is unlikely due to number of hearts out, this is true, but if hes got the hearts, he has four of them on fourth street and not many players will lay that down unless there is some serious action.

Now for fifth street, this is an obvious bet for him. I see little chance of him holding three jacks, however I think you have to play this hand cautiously from here on out.

Calling and raising on fifth are equal options. You can raise, and then if you are re-raised, you are surely behind the hand because you are representing trip 7s and hes saying he can beat that. You can call on fifth and then raise sixth assuming he doesn't hit two pair, open trips or a heart.

[TheSalche]

fishy - i can see where you're coming from about raising third. I think its a style of play in question. You're promoting a more aggressive style where you try to take control of the hand and put more hard decisions on your opponents. This is a great style if you can figure out quickly and cheaply when you are beaten.

What Diamond is advocating here is that in a 5-way pot on 3rd street, you probably aren't getting many people to fold, here I think all that would accomplish is getting the bring-in to fold. The call by the flush draw man may still actually be correct on third if he assumes the next two players will call. Flush draws in stud are all about implied odds. His way is more conservative, but still a winning style.

From my experience at smaller limits (3/6 at UB, but I dabbled in 10/20 and 15/30 at Pacific ... but those guys blow), keeping the pot small on early streets is vital to giving opponents poor odds to call that double bet on 5th street.