Implied Odds

[supafrey]

Definitely, half the time when we are counting odds we are assuming that all our cards are still live in the deck which is clearly wrong.

No we're not. We're assuming that it's just as likely that they're taken as if they were not.

I meant more with like... any decision we make?

[suitedaces84]

If your opponent bets 10$ and has 50$ left, your IMPLIED odds for calling are 5-1. Because if you hit your hand it is "implied" that you will take the rest of his 50$.

It's usually best to subtract a few from what your opponent has left because you won't get it all everytime.

[supafrey]

suited he specifically mentioned a gaurantee.

[TheSalche]

Reverse implied odds : How much money we are going to lose if we make our hand. (Because our opponent will make a better one).

I didn't take reverse implied odds to mean that. I'm pretty sure its usually used as the fact that if we make our hand we are unlikely to get paid off. For example: board is Q x x clubs and our opponent has top pair weak kicker and makes good laydowns, we hold the ace of clubs. If a club comes on the turn/river we are unlikely to extract enough money to justify making a call with improper pot odds.

[supafrey]

Reverse implied odds : How much money we are going to lose if we make our hand. (Because our opponent will make a better one).

I didn't take reverse implied odds to mean that. I'm pretty sure its usually used as the fact that if we make our hand we are unlikely to get paid off. For example: board is Q x x clubs and our opponent has top pair weak kicker and makes good laydowns, we hold the ace of clubs. If a club comes on the turn/river we are unlikely to extract enough money to justify making a call with improper pot odds.

No. Your example just illustrates some of the finer points of implied odds.

An example of reverse implied odds would be drawing to a flush on a paired board against a nitty player. While we may hit our monster, the cost of that may be too dear to draw, so we fold because of reverse implied odds. Better that than getting stacked vs his likely fh. Got it?

[mortaleclipse]

Supa u talking drawing to the nut flush when hes got the boat? Im kinda confused on what you are saying

[Sean_in_NJ]

Supa u talking drawing to the nut flush when hes got the boat?

Yes, or drawing to one.

For example, you hold K:club: Q:club:, villain has A:heart: A:diamond:. Board shows A:club: 7:club: 3:spade: 6:diamond:.

[supafrey]

Not only if he already has the boat, but also if he's drawing to it as well.

Lets do an example with some cards...

You have the 3 2 .

The board reads T T 8

The pot has $100 in it and there's a $30 bet to you, headsup, with you out of position. This example would work fine even if we were in position, but whatever - I'm trying to make this example easy. We have $150 in our stack at this point, with our opp covering us. What do we do?

To simplify, lets say that our opp will likely give away a good chunk of his stack if the board gets a third club, regardless of his hand. Does this change anything? Not really.

While the pot odds might be excellent, we haveta consider what likely holdings most opps have. Normally we'd assume we have a solid 9 outs. Problem is, most likely holdings for this kind of a scenario include AT, KT, QT, JT, 9T, Jc9c, 7c9c, or even a larger draw. Even if we were to have the A and 2 , we have little idea whether the 9, J or K of would actually boat up our opp. Reverse implied odds are sort of like the implied odds that our opponent has to draw to his hand, except we're the ones considering it for him - hence "reverse"

Yes, we could win a really nice pot here on occasion, but for most real life scenarios a lot of better players would easily fold trips in this situation if the final flush card comes up. So basically, while the pot odds may be in our favour, the most likely scenarios that will come up include:

1. We miss our draw and lose (or hit a pair, stubbornly assume they have nothing and get stacked, etc)
2. We hit our flush draw, our opp doesn't have one AND doesn't boat up, and folds to any bet of any size. (Not everything is as perfect as my scenario...)
3. We hit our flush, but the hand our opp hits (which we've already discussed could literally be anything from T7 and up) boats him and we lose our entire stack.

This gets trickier with more complicated scenarios... (Flushes are easy to spot - most things aren't)

Edit: While typing, sean posted a slightly more difficult to "spot" example of reverse implied odds.

[mortaleclipse]

Well I usually dont try to get to involved if the board pairs and im drawing to say a straight. Like you said my money card could be their better money card.

[supafrey]

Congrats. You have figured out 1 particular example out of like.. a thousand where implied odds and their backwards cousin can apply. =)

[aaronw]

Not only if he already has the boat, but also if he's drawing to it as well.

Lets do an example with some cards...

You have the 3 2 .

The board reads T T 8

The pot has $100 in it and there's a $30 bet to you, headsup, with you out of position. This example would work fine even if we were in position, but whatever - I'm trying to make this example easy. We have $150 in our stack at this point, with our opp covering us. What do we do?

To simplify, lets say that our opp will likely give away a good chunk of his stack if the board gets a third club, regardless of his hand. Does this change anything? Not really.

While the pot odds might be excellent, we haveta consider what likely holdings most opps have. Normally we'd assume we have a solid 9 outs. Problem is, most likely holdings for this kind of a scenario include AT, KT, QT, JT, 9T, Jc9c, 7c9c, or even a larger draw. Even if we were to have the A and 2 , we have little idea whether the 9, J or K of would actually boat up our opp. Reverse implied odds are sort of like the implied odds that our opponent has to draw to his hand, except we're the ones considering it for him - hence "reverse"

Yes, we could win a really nice pot here on occasion, but for most real life scenarios a lot of better players would easily fold trips in this situation if the final flush card comes up. So basically, while the pot odds may be in our favour, the most likely scenarios that will come up include:

1. We miss our draw and lose (or hit a pair, stubbornly assume they have nothing and get stacked, etc)
2. We hit our flush draw, our opp doesn't have one AND doesn't boat up, and folds to any bet of any size. (Not everything is as perfect as my scenario...)
3. We hit our flush, but the hand our opp hits (which we've already discussed could literally be anything from T7 and up) boats him and we lose our entire stack.

This gets trickier with more complicated scenarios... (Flushes are easy to spot - most things aren't)

Edit: While typing, sean posted a slightly more difficult to "spot" example of reverse implied odds.

Very good explanation. I completely agree with this!

[TheSalche]

weird ... i always thought it was my way

oh well

[shorn7]

Supa-

Great post and discussion. Thanks for sharing the knowledge you clearly have with all of us.

Shorn

[supafrey]

Small supplementary:

Do we see why having the ace, jack, or nine of clubs greatly improves our hand?

Considering these are the likeliest cards that our opp would also have (probably dominating us and with top trips, now) that now allows us to draw farther into the hand without having to worry as much about filling up our opponent. While we can't be certain of what our opp has, even if we're certain he has the trips we have to remember what likely cards he called with preflop - if we hold that second card there's no chance that we can go broke due to the boat.

While the implied odds of the hand haven't changed, the reverse ones have. God I hate jargon.

[Dave B]

fold preflop