Percentile of winning hands figure....

[jim nayzium]

Here is a question I want the answer to...I am quite sure the math wizard players in the WSOP figure this number somehow....

I am sitting after all 7 cards are seen by me...before the final bet...

I have calculated the nuts and I don't have it...

Let's say I have a strong two pair...

What is my hand then ranked in a percentile basis with every possible combination out there...

Meaning: Pot Odds may be 10 to 1, I need to call a ten dollar bet with 100 pot, but the percentile of my hand is in the 40 percentile...therefore six out of ten times I lose with these seven cards....

Does this make sense...???



Let's say the flop - river is A, K, Q, 5, 3

No flush possible...

The nuts looks like J, 10, with second being 2, 4

So...

J, 10
2, 4
A,A
K,K
Q,Q
5,5
3,3
and so on...

But let's say I have A, 5 which would eliminate A,A above but not A, K etc...

Is there a book/spreadsheet/formula for putting a percentile ranking on my cards???

Right now as i type A,5 would rank behind A,K / A,Q / K,Q and all the others above, but out of the others above these have been eliminated by my hand...AA/55 so

2 STraights plus these others rank ahead of my two pair, but what ranks below mine, and put that as a percentile and use that to help you call vs the pot odds>>?

Am I just a moron, or would this be useful...

So i could know the odds of KK/33 being out there etc....

[JimiHWannaBe]

dont go on odds in nl go on the other players play him by what you think he has what did he do preflop what did he do on the flop what did he do on the turn did he trap you? poker is alot more about playing the people than the odds

[jim nayzium]

I understand playing the people...that is what I feel I am best at (within my circle)...

WHat I am asking is this...when you have determined your actions based ont eh people...I want to weigh it against the math....

does that make sense...??

[snoogins47]

Let's say the flop - river is A, K, Q, 5, 3

Right now as i type A,5 would rank behind A,K / A,Q / K,Q and all the others above, but out of the others above these have been eliminated by my hand...AA/55 so

Okay, maybe I'm missing something very obvious, but I have to say two things before I respond.

1)How does one Ace on the board, and one in your hand, discount the possibility of somebody holding AA?

2)I'd personally take two pair, Aces and Fives, over two pair, Kings and Queens, any day of the week. In fact, I'd lay you 4,000,000 to 1 that my two pair, Aces and Fives, will hold up to your two pair, Kings and Queens. And I'll run it as many times as you like.


Anyway, now that that's out of the way...

This could be a semi useful calculation, for somebody writing a poker book, or to interest some of the math whiz statisticians out there. And it could help a player, if used correctly. However, I think it's fairly unimportant in the bigger picture, and very easily harmful to your play.

My comparison would be this.

Imagine a hand like A 6.

Somebody moves all in, and you're last to act, with no callers.

A purely mathematical analysis would most likely tell you to call, as those hands you hold will win the pot, against one opponent with unknown cards, more than 50% of the time, and you're getting slightly better than 50/50 on the pot. Now, I'm not positive on these odds, but it's just my way of illustrating the concept.

Obviously, you should almost always fold.

Also, these mediocre hands would probably be worth all-in bets. Because, for everybody that's calling, you're increasing your payout, and this hand still "holds up" individually over 50% of the time against each opponent.

Obviously, you shouldn't do this.

Why? The human aspect. One of the oft-quoted concepts from most hold'em books. On the river, it is often correct to not bet with a decently strong hand, even if you believe it is probably the strongest. This is because if your opponent holds a hand that will merit a call of your bet, you are almost certainly beat. So, at that point, your extra bet will either be pulled back, and you will win the same amount you would have had you NOT bet, or, you will be donating an extra bet to the winner of the pot.

Now, my examples are very extreme, but it just illustrates a key point that I'm trying to make.

I don't think that all the top players would know these calculations. In fact, they're not even all that important to consider. For instance, if you have KK, and an ace comes on the board, and you're up against one opponent, who called your preflop raise, and is now betting at you...

"odds" wise, you should call this one down, because most of the time, a single opponent will not hold an ace.

In reality, unless you have a strong read on the player or something, this would be a lay down that most of us wouldn't even think twice about making, 9 times out of 10.

Anyway, I do very much like the way you think about the strength of your hand. It's a method that is invaluable, in my mind. That is, knowing what possible cards could beat you, what hands might be below you but still sticking around, etc. However, I think that even taking into consideration the pure mathematical odds in that sense, where you might say "My hand beats 9/10 of the possible hole card combinations" or something, would only harm your game.

And you're right in wanting to "weigh the people against the math," as this would be the only way that these figures would be helpful at all.

In the end: I can't help ya find these figures. If you find them, I'd be interested in checking em out myself. But, if you find them, be careful, and take them with a grain of salt.

My final thought: Surely, the odds of somebody holding the ace of hearts, when there's four hearts on the board, and you have a king, are quite low.

But when that heart hits on fourth street, and the man UTG who called a moderate raise on the flop decides to move you all-in, do you want to bet your tournament on it?

And yes, I know my posts are almost always way too long, and I'd be surprised if anybody is actually still reading this far down