200NL nut fd facing reraise

[LeeG]

6max, Effective stacks $250. V has been seeing a lot of flops.

V: UTG+1 limps

Hero on Button with A Q
Raises to $11. V calls.

Flop:
8 5 2

V Checks, Hero bets 22 V Calls

Turn:
7

V Checks, Hero bets $35, Villain CR to 100

Hero?

And comments on my line too please.

[miaowmiaowchowface]

call and fold if you miss

[Yozman]

call and fold if you miss

+1
smells like a set

[MrDarling]

Against most fishy players I see no reason to bet this turn. If he floated with a small piece he's not folding on that turn. If he had any kind of a draw he just improved to at least a pair.

How likely do you think he will call his entire stack if you hit one of your clean 8 outs?

[miaowmiaowchowface]

Against most fishy players I see no reason to bet this turn. If he floated with a small piece he's not folding on that turn. If he had any kind of a draw he just improved to at least a pair.

How likely do you think he will call his entire stack if you hit one of your clean 8 outs?

i think this is wrong and a lot of them will lay down to the second barrel from experience

[supafrey]

Against most fishy players I see no reason to bet this turn. If he floated with a small piece he's not folding on that turn. If he had any kind of a draw he just improved to at least a pair.

How likely do you think he will call his entire stack if you hit one of your clean 8 outs?

Yeah I don't agree with this. I second barrel this all the time.

[Jernej Zorec]

ok so u dont check, but calling this with intention of folding river doesnt seem too good

id rather bet/fold or bet/shove , than call to fold most of rivers

[LeeG]

I really figured there was as good of a chance of him being on a FD as having a set, so I pushed. He called with pocket 7s and I caught my spade on the river.

[MrDarling]

i think this is wrong and a lot of them will lay down to the second barrel from experience

I said fish. The fish who float this flop with over cards (which have 6 outs at best vs us) will indeed fold all the time. The fish who called with 66-TT, 67, 78, 69, 57 etc... will almost never fold. Sure we get some value from gutters that didn't improve to at least a pair, but thats such a small part of his range.

Very few villains play good enough to c/r this flop with a naked FD, especially semi deep.

Against a decent reg this is a different story. We repping a very small range and we basically have to bet most rivers if we bet the turn (as some regs will still float with a decent draw here, but will fold their one pair hands on the river) so if you are prepared to 3rd barrel it then a turn bet is indeed fine.

[HalfSugar]

call and fold if you miss

+1
smells like a set

And if the river is [2s] or [7s]?

[miaowmiaowchowface]

i still disagree about the gutterball etc floating fish, some are just quite passive and cant call that second barrel.

as for my original advice, calling and folding if u miss a sspade is prolly wrong, its 100% a maths problem, because this line is ALWAYS i repeat ALWAYS some sort of supernuts. (from a fish)

[Yozman]

call and fold if you miss

+1
smells like a set

And if the river is [2s] or [7s]?

you vomit and half the time u fold other half call