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Newbie questions

Pot odds questions, outs calculations, hand probabilities
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4 posts • Page 1 of 1

Newbie questions

Postby semtex32 » Wed Dec 17, 2008 5:33 pm GMT

Similar to another poster (Garth)I record post flop allins
I have a very small sample as I haven't recorded for long.
Rather than complain about my luck I want to try to understand why I lose so many allins, the BIG hands as I think of them
As posters mention I will win many lucky times, but when you are all in with 10 chips winning doesn't feel so good...
My sample shows that I'm ahead post flop in about 80% of my allins with an average of 5 outs for my oppo but win just 20% and the 20% I'm losing all result in losses with an average of 4 outs.

I realise that calling allins is risky but I try to analyse the situation. If I think I'm winning I'll either call a potential bluff/fish or push big to scare off opponents... these don't seem to work.
Examples of my downfall
QJ
88q on flop
call allin
oppo has 99
j10 turn and river
Should I have realised a straight was obvious?

A10
A10J on flop
oppo has KK
Q on the turn
Again is river too obvious? He called so was he fishing for Q or confident of KK?

Q8 and last few hundred chips (again)
49Q on Flop
oppo has Q7
J7 on turn and river
Am I just fishing? I was ahead, albeit by just that 8 to 7 but even a tie was better odds than a loss?

So do I stop calling/pushing when I'm in those situations?
If so when do I make a play? If that's your best hand in 10 rounds what do you have to wait for?
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Postby HalfSugar » Wed Dec 17, 2008 5:42 pm GMT

If you call all-in and are 80% to win but your sample shows a 20% win rate, your sample is just way too small. That is literally it.
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Postby semtex32 » Thu Dec 18, 2008 12:16 pm GMT

But what of the tactic?
Is pushing a good idea? It rarely seems to work. Admittedly in dollar games people seem more willing to call virtually any hand... but that's why I thought the odds would work for me :?

Thanks for the input btw
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Postby MrDarling » Thu Dec 18, 2008 4:19 pm GMT

If you can get your opponent to call all their chips when they are 60%-80% dog on the hand you should be happy.

Just don't forget, that when you are 80% favourite to win, you still only win 8 out of 10 times. Thats why they call it gambling.
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