amazing stats

[jimmer]

If you are hitting all these bad beats, but are still an "overall winning player" on BODOG, may be you are just playing/calling too many hands?

Either way - bad beats or not, if you are a winning player on BODOG why are you cashing out?

[miaowmiaowchowface]

i think we're losing sight here jimmer, he's talking about amazing stats

[kingetje]

wow just wow. those stats are amazing to me

[stringman]

It's not a question as to whether I am a winning player ...(I am) it's the fact that if these stats are so skewed how can anybody trust a site?...I have questioned Bodog and they have told me basically to just trust them.... They claim that throught their audits that the RNG falls within acceptable paramaters...I asked them to check my hand history to verify my claims and they said that they could not...I have cashed most of my money out but have still left some in...I agree as to the statement of WHY CASH OUT but as I said there is this nagging feeling in the back of my mind.....As an aside if you think seeing 15% per cent of the flops is a lot then I guess I should think of another game to play....I do agree that I call to many hands...but because of the bad beats I do try to keep pots small unless I am sure that I am ahead...then I put the hammer down....and thats where the bad beats happen cause my opponents call so many hands that they are behind in and for some reason they get rewarded...I know its never a great play to slow play but when you think about it when you are heads up and a 4-1 fav or better the math should hold up in the long run....at Bodog it doesn't seem to and that is what bothers me...I always thought poker in the long run is about the math....

[HalfSugar]

Seriously, variance. Get past it.

[stringman]

I am past it Half Sugar...but you are clueless if you think variance can account for that kind of swing over 400k hands...a couple percentage points yes....but from almost 30% to less than 7%...what are you smoking?...I understand beats are part of the game....but when an event normally occurs 30% of the time on average and in reality happens 7% is that variance?......variance would be 20-29 or 31-39 or some such number...anything else over that amount of time should be viewed as suspicious...

[crack]

Some nice amazing stats there mate.

[HalfSugar]

Even if Bodog are screwing you (which they absolutely are not of course), aren't they just putting your money in someone else's pocket and then losing your rake by driving you away? Does that seem like a smart rigging tactic to you?

[stringman]

You may not see the big picture...or maybe I don't....Why not run a site where you penalize the optimum playing style just a bit and reward the weaker style just a bit more...the obvious reason would be to keep the weaker players in the game a bit longer thereby allowing the site or sites to keep their customer base...As you know the weak players in poker feed the strong...Strong players win in the long run but just not to the extent that they normally would...It's still a computer program and as you may know any program can be adjusted...I hope that is not the case..but I have talked to some very good poker players and when I tell them that theory they all agree that it does make sense.
The last 14 times I have had AK or AQ in the first 3 positions I have flopped exactly zero cards matching my two....the last 11 times before that I hit one flop and of course lost that...that makes 1 out of the last 25 that I flopped a matching card holding those 2 combos...you do the math...
Either way I have cashed out most of my winnings and will use a good portion to play live...
The balance will be used to rebuild my bankroll or go bust whichever comes first...lol...
The positive side to this story is that my check came in 5 days...They have really done a much better job with the payouts.........
Always remember one thing: that variance accounts for swings but the amount has to be within certain paramaters over the long run...What constitutes the long run can be questioned...my contention is that 400k hands in a pretty good sample....

[HalfSugar]

You may not see the big picture...or maybe I don't....Why not run a site where you penalize the optimum playing style just a bit and reward the weaker style just a bit more...the obvious reason would be to keep the weaker players in the game a bit longer thereby allowing the site or sites to keep their customer base...As you know the weak players in poker feed the strong...Strong players win in the long run but just not to the extent that they normally would...It's still a computer program and as you may know any program can be adjusted...I hope that is not the case..but I have talked to some very good poker players and when I tell them that theory they all agree that it does make sense.

Considering the amount of rake these sites can pull just by playing fair, to spend inordinate sums making some complex algorithm that identifies the 'optimum playin style' (whatever that is) in order to penalise it while rewarding the 'weaker style' is a pretty outrageous thing to suggest. Even aside from the technical side of things, why take the massive risk of being busted for it and jeopardise all the genuine rake that can be generated?

Out of interest, was 9/11 a US government conspiracy do you think?

[miaowmiaowchowface]

stop arguing and just enjoy the (amazing) stats PLEASE

[Ciso_B]

credit where credit's due, those are amazing stats.

Its on your head son not off your head son.

You gotta be in it to win it.

[kingetje]

I had a good friend of mine look over this. he was skeptical at first but he says they are indeed amazing stats

[stringman]

And they are all true...my friend who plays there experiences the same thing...and wins overall...he also agrees with my assessment...he is a big winner on the site but also says the swings are beyond belief...but he also says thats the cost of doing business there...for people to blindly trust a site or person sounds about as silly as what I am saying....

[crack]

I just looked back at this thread and am still can't believe these amazing stats.

What is you and your friends screennames on bodog?