Is this true?

[gazu92]

Hello, i have been using this method to calculate my % of hitting my hand, but i want to know how accuarate it really is...

example:
i got pocket pair, i got 2 outs:
so i multiply my outs by 2 (2x2 = 4%) this 4% is the percent for each card:
in the flop 3 cards, 3x4% = 12% of hitting a set right?

another example:
i got suited cards, and in the flop i get 2 more, so i have a flush draw (1 more to go):
so i got 9 outs, (9x2 = 18%) this is 18% for each card left... so i got about 36% in Turn + River to hit the flush?

another example:
open ended straight, 8 outs... i have 16% in turn and another 16% in river to hit my striaght?


is this math acceptable? IT DOESNT SHOW THE % OF WINNING, ONLY THE % OF HITTING WHAT YOU WANT...

i use this and i think it is pretty acuarete, but i was hopeing that someone good in math can check this out and confirm me that is true?
that your outs x 2 = the % of each card of hitting?

[Godson]

A year has passed and I will be the first to answer your question.

This is relatively accurate, however it isn't exact. The percentage thing is an estimate and could be off a bit, but is good for a mediocre approach. Getting one of your outs obviously isn't exactly 4%, but given that it is you wouldn't multiply it by 3 to determine 3 cards. Instead you do this.

100(.04) = 4% for drawing 1 card
100(.04+.96*.04) = 7.84% for drawing 2 cards
100(.04+.96*.04+.96^2*.04)= 11.5264% for drawing 3 cards

(This understanding isn't as important now as it will be later on in probability calculations, but in order to calculate odds for future draws you must go down the path which shows the chance that you miss your first card. If this is confusing to you let me know and I will explain it more detailed and better.)

6 is pretty close to 7.84 and 12 is close to 11.5264 as well. So you pretty much got a good system going. On a side note calculating multiple cards in advance, besides the flop, are usually not so efficient as your opponents can add more money to the pot after one card being revealed. That is where implied odds come in. I won't talk about it here though, because I will write a book long paragraph. Also, I would advise to use ratios instead of percentages as they are better in terms of poker. At least for me it is. I used to like percentages too, but once you get an understanding of ratios you can apply the thought of "If I go in X many of times I will lose X much and win X much". For instance, a win ratio of 5:1 can be thought of like this: out of 6 times I play this hand 5 times I will lose and 1 time I will win. I find that better than I got a 17% chance to win. Especially since calculating chip and pot sizes is easier in ratios than in percentages, because you don't have to calculate all the money at the table together and have it be divided by your money or your opponents' money.

P.S. Drawing on outs such as pocket pairs to three of a kinds are usually pretty bad. They are like 22:1 from turn to river which means you will lose 22 times and only win once if you were to repeat your current scenario 23 times.

Even more P.S. check out this super cool turquois smiley --->