odds of hitting a set

[Ben4040]

All of this was very interesting to read. I have always raised with pocket pairs of any kind if no one else has raised the pot before me. Jim and Dave both made good points. I think facing a significant bet with a low pocket pair with two overcards on the flop it would be very hard to re-raise your opponent, unless you had a significant amount of chips that you could afford to bluff or you were pretty sure your opponent didn't have a hand.

[suprastyxx]

why is it that when we are calculating odds we have to calculate the odds of NOT hitting our hand instead of calculating the odds to hit it?
Andrew

[snoogins47]

A few reasons:

First, it's not a big difference. 80% of not hitting it, pretty obviously means 20% that we will.

Secondly, it's just typical conventions to put the bigger number in front in odds... if you're the favorite, you'd say you're a 4:1 favorite. If you're behind, you're a 4:1 dog.

Third, knowing I have a 65% chance of MISSING my flush draw makes me a lot less apt to chase than if I thought "Man, I make this over a third of the time!" ;P

[suprastyxx]

ok, so it doesn't matter which way you calculate then its just preference basically. i always wondered if you got a wrong percentage if you did it the wrong way.
Thanks for the answer
Andrew