What was that estamation odds thing in your head

[djbaseball24]

I forgot but someone posted and good estamtion thing to do in your head like multiply by 3 or something like that, does anyone remember what the real formation was?

[ORGrinder]

post flop = number of outs x 4

post turn = number of outs x 2 - 1

[djbaseball24]

This gives me a percent right?

So i have 84 suited(spades) vs pocket Kings
and the flop is 4c 5h 2c
Right now I would do 5 X 4=20% of getting this card on turn, river right?
if they next card is Js then I do 5 x 2=10-1=9 percent chance of getting a 4 or 8 right?

[ORGrinder]

your number of outs will vary depending on what hand you're calculating to... but yes... you've got it right... it's a percentage calculation of hitting the card(s) you're looking to get by the river.

[Johnny T]

Thats a good system... the only flaw would be, how d'ya know your opponent has pocket Kings... he could have 8 4 the same as you? Or even worse, Pocket J's..



Still, very handy for working out whether to take the plunge or not..

[ORGrinder]

true... but when calculating odds you don't bother taking other's ppls cards into account since you have no way of knowing for certain what they are... unless they happen to pull a no-no and show their muck while other ppl are still in the hand. in which case you could adjust your odds accordingly.

[joerobinson04]

Sorry Im a newb on the terminology, what is an out?

[Dave B]

check the glossary on the right for terms.

Quickly, an out is a card that will improve your hands (enough to give you hand hand).

AK, flop 3 6 J, you have 6 outs, 3 As 3 Ks

78, flop 2 9 10, you have 8 outs 4 6s 4 Js.

Jh10h, flop Ah Kh 2d, you have 12 outs, 9 hearts, 3 Qs (one is a heart-dont double count)

[ORGrinder]

i just realized i made a error...

post turn should be # of outs x 2 + 1, not -1. my bad.

[joerobinson04]

I would only use this if it was down to 3 or less players. With 9 players in those odds would make no sence.

[ORGrinder]

unless you're some sort of idiot savant or something... in every book i've read you calc you odds based on number of outs period. number of players makes no difference since you simply have no way to know what they have.

that said... the figures work no matter how many players are in the hand.

[Dave B]

Those odds make no sence (sp!).....care to play? I have a seat ready for you.

[ORGrinder]

Sure dave... i'll play with ya... cuz if you're odds are different... i'm a shoe in to make an eazy buck.

here are some examples for ya

odds with 2 cards to come

1 out = 4.3% OR 4x1 = 4%

2 outs = 8.4% OR 4x2 = 8%

3 outs = 12.5% OR 4x3 = 12%

4 outs = 16.5% OR 4x4 = 16%

5 outs = 20.4% OR 4x5 = 20%

6 outs = 24.1% OR 4x6 = 24%

where shal we play dave?

8)

[ORGrinder]

i will conceed though that although the pre-turn calculation is darn close to actual odds... the pre-river calculation fluctuates between just x2 and x2+1 depending on the number of outs... so it's NOT as accurate of a calculation.

[joerobinson04]

But if there were 16 more cards that the players were holdling, why wouldn't that change anything. Im saying these calculations should work better with less players.